NFL Week 6 DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown
October 17, 2021 · Peter MacFarlane · NFL
Welcome to week six of the Add More Funds DraftKings Main Slate Rundown. As we said last week this will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports is something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament. At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this every week we will release our favorite weekend classic slate plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly, projected to be under-owned. Plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific.
Last week we recommended plays such as Justin Herbert (45.82 points 1st on the main slate), Derrick Henry (34 points 1st on the main slate), D’andre Swift (22.4 points 10th on the main slate), Davante Adams (40.6 points 1st on the main slate), Justin Jefferson (22.4 points 11th on the main slate), and the Eagles defense (12 points 2nd on the main slate). Anybody stacking them with a cheap tight end play and wide receiver would have been well on their way to a massive payday.
Here is our week six NFL DraftKings main slate rundown.
Quarterback:
Lamar Jackson ($7,400) Tournament/cash play
This feels lazy as Lamar should always be in consideration in tournaments and almost always in cash. The obvious rushing floor (58+ yards in four of five games) combined with his growing passing role (don’t look now but Lamar is fifth in passing yards this year trailing only pocket passers Brady, Carr, Stafford, and Herbert). However, in a game, they will need to score plenty of points against the Chargers to keep up I like Lamar’s chances of hitting the 300-yard bonus and possibly adding a rushing score. If you get one of those you’re on your way to a big week. If you get both you probably have the QB1 on the main slate.
Matthew Stafford ($6,700) Tournament-specific play.
This feels very similar to our week 5 recommendation of Herbert. I know Stafford is implied to win by a lot more than Herbert and has less rushing equity but that shouldn’t make you shy away. Implied for the second-highest team total on the week at 29.5 points Stafford looks to have a great chance to put up big numbers. A rule of thumb of mine is to play QBs and RBs who look like they will win big. People often shy away in this spot as they believe blowouts will force coaches to sit players or they will quit throwing etc. But how do you expect the Rams to get up? I think it will be through the air early and often. Pairing Stafford with one of his top weapons in Kupp ($7,900) or Woods ($6,100) gives you a great stack that may slip through the cracks in tournaments this week.
Taylor Heinicke ($5,800) Tournament/cash play
Since taking over as the starter in week two Heinicke has posted totals of 24, 23.4, 27.9, and 11.9 DK points. I think that poor effort last week against New Orleans works in his favor this week as it should depress ownership. Going against a Kansas City team that will put up points, and has shown almost no resistance this year in stopping them makes this a smash spot. I love lineups with Heinicke stacked with Mclaurin ($7,100) and running it back with either Darrell Williams ($5,200) or Travis Kelce ($7,000).
Other QB thoughts:
I’m fading Rodgers ($7,200) this week due to matchup, price, and other options at the position looking good. Wentz ($5,400) is too cheap at home against Houston although that feels more tourney specific as there are simply safer cash plays. Finally, even though I didn’t write them up, I still like Mahomes ($8,300) and Herbert ($7,300) most weeks and this one is no different.
Running Back:
Before I start with the plays I would like to preface that this week at running back will depend heavily on injuries. We did not write up Mattison last week but as soon as Cook was ruled he became an automatic cash-game play, and probably should have been in quite a few tournament builds. Looking at the top thirteen most expensive plays on the main slate a whopping ELEVEN of them have an injury designation as of Thursday. We know a few are very likely out (Barkley) and a few are very likely to be full-go, but monitor this as the week goes on. You can also check out our other piece on RBs for week 6 from Sam.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,100) Prefer in cash but will sprinkle in tournaments
Zeke has averaged over 20 DK points a game this year and is set to play the Patriots this week as a four-point favorite. According to AMF tools he is third in the league in snaps for running backs, fifth in rushes inside the opponent's ten-yard line, and tied for second in rushing touchdowns. He is getting chances to produce and is capitalizing. Not numbers based but I could see in this matchup the Pats sitting back and forcing Dallas to commit to the run by playing more zone trying to eliminate the big play. If that’s the case Zeke has a great chance at the bonus and a touchdown. Anything beyond that is gravy.
Jonathan Taylor ($6,600) Tournament/cash play
This is my favorite play of the week. Jonathan Taylor is beginning to become more involved in the passing game with a few targets each of the last few weeks but this week is mostly about his rushing prowess. According to AMF tools, he leads the league in red zone rushing attempts. There are also only two backs that have more rush attempts and a higher yards per carry number (Henry and Chubb). Combine that with the home running back favored by double digits narrative and it's easy to see why I love Taylor so much.
Darrell Henderson ($6,000) Cash-specific play.
Playing Henderson this week is similar to playing Taylor. I don’t think Henderson is quite as explosive a player or able to carry as large a load but I still love the spot. With four games of DK point totals between 15.7 and 17.2 points, we can see the consistency he provides. You can expect a few catches and the goal line back role. In a Sean Mcvay offense against a Giants team unlikely to be able to sustain drives, I love Hendersons' week six outlook.
Other RB thoughts:
It’s all about the inactive report. Between Dalvin (Mattison himself does look equally banged up though), CMC, Aaron Jones, Chubb, Hunt, Mixon, Gibson, and Swift at least one to two will likely be out. That puts most of their backups in a great spot at a decreased price. Monitor this above all and be ready to pivot off the lineups you made Friday or Saturday. I do like Mckissic ($4,800) in tournaments with Chiefs builds and he becomes almost a must if Gibson is out. Ekeler ($7,900) continues to produce while healthy and I don’t see that slowing down against Baltimore this week. I don’t want any piece of Devontae Booker ($5,400) against the Rams and am fading all Baltimore and New England rushers.
Wide Receivers:
Terry Mclaurin ($7,400) Tournament/cash play
In case you missed it, Mclaurin is playing the Chiefs this weekend. Both Vegas (based on Kansas City team totals) and I feel that for Washington to stay competitive they will need to score points in bunches. I don’t see a strong path to that without a huge game from Mclaurin. Sixth in the league in air yards and eighth in targets, Mclaurin provides the perfect combination of ceiling and floor. If you aren’t convinced, read the section on Heinicke because I think pairing them is a great place to start both tourney and cash game lineups alike.
Michael Pittman ($5,500) Tournament-specific play.
Since his week one clunker Michael Pittman has quietly the seventh-most targets in the NFL. He’s parlayed that into four straight games with at least six catches. Also, catching his first touchdown of the season last week I don’t see why Pittman can’t go back to back against a poor Houston team. Finally, Indy was humming last week when throwing the ball. I expect them to do that early and often this week.
Robby Anderson ($4,800) Tournament-specific play.
You’d have to dig a bit to see this but Anderson is 23rd in the league for wide receivers in air yards, but 53rd in targets. Last week there was some obvious sideline complaining from Anderson and Matt Rhule has publicly expressed they need to get him going a bit more. Facing a soft Vikings secondary I think there’s a chance for a bomb TD for Anderson. If he catches a few more passes and hits the bonus he could easily be in the winning Milly maker lineup. Possibly run him in a low-owned stack with Darnold ($6,100) in tourneys.
Other WR thoughts:
Less so than running back but still prevalent are the injuries to WRs this week. At the top, many of the big names on this slate have serious concerns heading into the weekend (Hill, Mike Williams, Jefferson, Hopkins, Thielen). The situation in Minnesota could leave some value if one or both of their stud duo were to miss. I also like Adams ($9,000) this week again. Remember if he catches a TD and hits the bonus it's still a great play even at that price. Chiefs WRs would be HUGE beneficiaries of a Tyreek absence although a lot of that would trickle to Kelce ($7,000). Price-wise I prefer Higgins ($5,300) to Chase ($6,700) as they have similar stats according to AMF other than TDs which should regress.
Tight Ends:
Travis Kelce ($7,000) Tournament/cash play
Remember when I said Jonathan Taylor was my favorite play. Well, I lied. It's Kelce. Against a Washington team bleeding passing yards Kelce should eat this week. Also, the combination of Kansas City’s brutal defense and Tyreek Hill’s possible missed game or playing at less than 100% mean Kelce should be getting targeted all game long. And finally, did you see that price tag? The first four weeks he was mid 8ks. Nothing has changed. Ride Kelce in cash and use him heavily in tourneys.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,000) Tournament/cash play
Two tight ends one game! For all the same reasons I have liked Heinicke and Mclaurin, I like Seals-Jones. But he’s also a great value. Put a couple of convenient sort tools in on AMF and you will see that in week five he was the fourth most targeted tight end. That raises his floor so much and invites a ceiling that with a touchdown makes him one of if not the best value on the slate.
Other TE thoughts:
I truly think in cash there are only two viable options as of now. Especially since one is priced up and the other is only $500 above the minimum. But if you want a different play for tourneys to get off the popular plays I think Tyler Higbee at $4,400 and Tyler Conklin at $3,200 (if one of the two top WRs are out) are solid pivots. Also, Mark Andrews ($5,200) will be popular but is very viable as well. I will not have any shares of Waller ($6,600) or Schultz ($4,900) this week due to my uncertainty in their involvement in their game plans.
Defense:
Colts ($3,500) Tournament specific play
I am generally not team “spend up on defense.” But in this spot against Davis Mills and the lackluster Texans, I feel like Indy is still underpriced. The expectation for a defensive touchdown is high as well as that for turnovers, sacks, and a low offensive point total.
Ravens ($2,300) Cash-specific play.
I don’t advise targeting defenses against the Chargers usually. But at this price, a Ravens defense at home cannot be ignored. I think the chance for some sacks and a possible regression spot for the Chargers makes this a great punt at the flukiest position in NFL DFS.