Week 6: Thinking RBs

CMC the top-priced RB  is OUT again this week.

Austin Ekeler (7,900) is the highest-priced RB with no CMC this week. It's fair to think that tag could have risen a smidge higher from 7,600 last week after scoring 3 TDs on 17 carries for 66 and 2 scores plus 5 catches for 53 and another score although he did fumble twice only losing one. To date, Ekeler has 67 rushing attempts for a 64% position share with 18 coming in the red zone and the most important part of 4 carries coming in the green zone (inside the 5). While 4 is not a very high raw number, it does represent 80% of the Chargers handoffs inside the 5 this season which was not part of the role for Ekeler in previous seasons. He has converted 3 of the 4 for scores. On the ground he has added one more score coming from inside the red zone for a total of 4 rush TDs on 349 yards and an above expectation 5.2 yards per carry. Of course we must look at the receiving game for Ekeler as he is one of the top pass-catching backs in the game. He has 23 receptions on the year (25 targets) which is literally tied with Deandre Hopkins. Yeah. Ekeler is a great play this week in all formats if you can swing the cash, despite being a road underdog to Baltimore.

Dalvin Cook (7,700) is now expected to play returning from the injury which saw Alexander Mattison become a top play last week. In the 3 games Cook has played this year he's handled 51 carries for 17 a game with only 1 green zone attempt he did score on. 226 rushing yards for a slightly above expectation 4.4 YPC and just the 1 rush TD. 16 targets is good for a ~14% target share of the 3 games he played, catching 10 balls for 70 yards and no scores. Minnesota is favored on the road v Carolina, but it is a tight 2 point spread and Cook basically seems (to me, at least) like expensive Alexander Mattison at this point. Maybe not a cash play, but the historical numbers on Dalvin do make him an interesting pay up option for tournaments.

Jonathan Taylor (6,600) is now one of the only 2 RBs on the slate (unless you wanna play Latavius Murray or a Broncos RB) who is going to be favored at home. A matchup with the Texans is good to make Indy (and well, most teams, probably) 10 point favorites. Being such a heavy favorite at home is great for RBs as the expectation for carries (and implication for TDs) goes up as they look to salt the game away in the second half. Taylors snap rate of 50% will not stand out and could be a reason to shy away, however, the 73 rushing attempts is good for top 10 (9th) in the league. Taylor also boasts a league-leading 8 carries inside the 5 which is 2 more than the next closest RBs (Chubb, Henry, Conner). That's 90% of green zone carries and we can surely expect the Colts to reach this area against Houston. Yes, he has only got in the paint once out of those 8 carries, but I’m here to tell you this means he could be due for some positive TD regression in that area. He has added one more rushing score (2 total) from inside the red zone where he also is leading the league with 24 red zone carries. He's caught 14 of 16 balls for 197 yards (83 came on one play vs Baltimore) for one more score (on that play). High carry expectation with all the work inside the 5 and solid numbers in the passing game along with being heavy favorites at home checks every one of the boxes were looking for in an RB play.

Kareem Hunt (6,200) Nick Chubb is OUT this week after not practicing all week with a calf injury. Hunt has only been in for 45% of snaps this season and we should expect that number to go way up to the 80%+ range with no Chubb, setting up Hunt to be the mega chalk and essentially a must play in cash formats. Out of 55 total carries, 12 have come in the red zone and 4 ever important green zone carries which is actually only 36% of inside the 5 handoffs for Cleveland. He has run in 3 of 4 $ zone totes with one more score coming inside the 20 and even added another rush TD from outside the 20 for 5 total. Given no Chubb, its hard to see Hunt not getting in the box this week. Catching 17 balls (for free full points on DK) on 21 targets for a 15% target share, you need to run (not walk) to get him in your cash lineups this week. For tournaments, a case can be made for fading due to high expected ownership, yet another case can be made for hitting the lock button for 100% exposure. Hunt is listed questionable with a wrist and missed practice the first 2 days but did log a limited participant Friday and is expected to play.

Darrell Henderson (6,000) was shaping up to be the highest owned RB this week before the news of Chubb being OUT. Henderson seems to be the guy McVay wants to use when he is in there, in on 80% of snaps handling 70% of RB carries through 4 games played. These in game numbers are actually kind of skewed and could likely be higher considering Henderson got hurt and missed the entire 4th quarter of the week 2 game vs the Rams. This kind of bellcow usage is becoming increasingly harder to find these days in the NFL, highly leading to the high projected ownership. Also considering the Rams as heavy 10 point favorites (albeit on the road) vs the Giants makes for a very tasty spot. At 60 total carries (10 red zone, 3 $ zone) for 294 yards and a very healthy 4.9 YPC which is much above the expected 4.0 YPC. Hendo has scored 2 of the 3 green zone carries adding one more from inside the 20 for 3 total rush TDs. 13 targets is good for a respectable 10% target share, catching 10 for 90 yards 0 TDs. The Hunt play will knock his ownership down a bit but the heavy workload and 10 point favorite designation still make for a top play in cash.

Situations to monitor include Zeke (7,100) who is listed Questionable but logged 3 straight limited practices and is expected to play favored on the road at New England and has seen back to back games of 20+ carries. Antonio Gibson (6,500) was added to the injury report after the team corrected the first version they sent out which listed Gibson as no injury designation Gibson's shin injury was said last week to be one that may not be fully corrected all year. Gibson has a strong matchup in a high total game against Kansas City who can't seem to stop anyone at the moment. D’andre Swift (6,300) has been listed questionable with the same groin injury all year, it doesn't seem to be affecting his on-field performance much as he is currently right at the top of RB expected points leaderboards due to all those high-value targets (35, 19%) and carries inside the 5.

Closing thoughts:  Saquon Barkley suffered another injury we hope to see him back soon and Devontae Booker is (5,400) this week as a 10 point home dog vs the Rams. While being the underdog means we may not see the extra 2nd half carries, we have seen the Giants give their backup RBs very similar snap rates and workloads to the starter. The bellcow usage expectation makes booker an interesting play this week despite underdog status. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was placed on IR after suffering an MCL sprain vs the BIlls and Darrel WIlliams (4,900) looks to take over the KC backfield Sunday at Washington. With the highest game total (54.5) and team total (31) there is a lot of room for Williams to sneak one into the box and that might be all you need to be a viable play at that price tag. Finally, Damien Williams landed on the Covid list which means the next man up for Chicago will be Khalil Herbert. Herbert ran well last week on his 18 carries on the way to a Bears victory over the Raiders even with Damien Williams playing and getting 16 carries. The Bears have been running for more yards than passing in recent games and the showing last week bumps Herbert up from the min salary of 4k to a non-free 4,600. This tag is still very much cheap enough to land him squarely in play with the carry expectation even as home dogs vs Green Bay.

Thanks for reading, good luck this Sunday. If you're looking for a full slate breakdown, make sure to check out Peter's article.