NFL Week 5 DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome to week five of the Add More Funds DraftKings Main Slate Rundown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this every week we will release our favorite weekend classic slate plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly, projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. Here is our week five NFL DraftKings main slate rundown.

Quarterback

Justin Herbert ($6,800) Tournament-specific play. 

Facing a Browns team who is coming off a dominant defensive performance last week I think ownership will be low. Vegas has this as a tight spread but I like the Chargers this week. Herbert is also averaging over forty pass attempts a game (fourth in the league entering week four) with a roughly league-average rate of 7.2 YPA. I think Herbert’s line will be able to contain the pass rush of the Browns, setting him up for some potential deep shots to Mike Williams ($7,200), Jalen Guyton ($3,500), and company. 

Kirk Cousins ($6,500) Tournament/cash play

There are few rules in DFS. But a consistent way to make money is to play home quarterbacks and running backs who are implied for big wins by Vegas lines. Well, Cousins is in that spot against a Lions team that has given up 119 points in four games. I also think Lion's offense even without high-level skill talent has shown a level of competency that will allow them to hang around long enough to keep Cousins aggressive throughout. Also, with Dalvin Cook still looking a bit banged up they may go to the passing game a bit more often, especially with deep shots off their play-action game that Cousins excels at. 

Trey Lance ($5,700) Tournament/cash play

There is still little tape on Lance in the NFL. But after reviewing every play he was in last week I have a few takeaways. First, he looked a bit uncomfortable on his first few drives missing receivers, not planting his feet correctly. As the game went on and coach Shanahan (a personal favorite of mine) had time to adapt from his gameplan Lance settled in. His lateral agility was evident, making defenders miss constantly. He is not the burner that Lamar or even Fields are straight downfield but he will pick up rush yards in bunches still. On the road implied for about 23 points I think he could smash expectations possibly stacked with Samuel ($7,100) or Kittle ($5,600 but also questionable to play). With his rushing, I could even see an argument for playing him in tournaments with no stack and running it back with Hopkins ($7,600) and or Moore ($4,600). 

Other QB thoughts:

Jalen Hurts ($7,000) is too consistent to ignore. The guy has put up 20+ DK points every week in his NFL career he’s been the starter. Prescott ($6,900) is good in tourney stacks this week. It sounds gross, but a contrarian Mac Jones ($5,300) play is something that will be low owned in tournaments with high upside. I am off Brady ($7,400), Darnold ($6,600, and Heinicke ($5,900) in all formats this week.

Running Back

Derrick Henry ($9,000) Tournament/cash play (prefer in cash)

He’s the most expensive guy this week ahead of other weekly top plays Mccaffrey ($8,700), Kamara ($8,600), Cook ($8,400), and Aaron Jones ($7,900). But he’s also healthy and playing the Jaguars. Using the AMF NFL Rushing tools and a few easy sort settings it’s pretty easy to see why he’s a great play besides for the matchup. Henry is second in snaps, first in attempts, tied for first in touchdowns with four, and casually in first in rushing yards with 148 more than the next closest rusher (Nick Chubb). Henry has an awesome floor/ceiling combo and DK still hasn’t quite aggressively priced him like they do with a healthy Mccaffrey or even Cook. 

D’andre Swift ($6,100) Tournament-specific play. 

Look I get it, he’s in a timeshare, he doesn’t get enough rushing yards, he is often injured. But Swift is the perfect guy to play in tournaments this week. He’s priced right around a ton of other backs who are either on high-profile teams or appear to be in a better spot. But see my notes on Kirk Cousins, the Lions will be trailing in this game likely for a majority of the second half. AMF has him for the second-most receptions by a running back, the most YAC, and even a top 10 snap total for the position. That snap count does not go down in games they are trailing as Swift is the clear receiving back. I have Swift projected to do well through the air this week and just enough on the ground to give him a very high ceiling. 

Leonard Fournette ($5,200) Cash-specific play.

It’s not pretty, but it's absurdly cheap for a running back who played over 80% of his team's snaps last week and is a ten-point home favorite. With Giovanni Bernard out last week, and Ronald Jones ($4,700) still in Bruce Arian's dog house, Fournette had twenty carries and an additional five targets. I don’t think his ceiling is as high as others due to a lack of explosiveness in his game, but the floor is there for solid production at a great discount off many of the other backs in the player pool. 

Other RB thoughts:

I am staying off of Dalvin Cook if active as I don’t think he will command a full workload. Whether it is Mixon ($6,200) or Perine ($4,000) I am not interested in a Bengals running back this week. The floor is a tad low for cash but Damien Harris ($5,500) has Jonas Gray type upside in his matchup against the lowly Texans. Finally, I am not sleeping on Zeke ($7,000) this week. AMF has him with the second most Rushing TDs inside the opponent's ten-yard line to go along with the fourth most rush yards overall this season. Big time smash spot for him against the Giants.

Wide Receivers: 

Davante Adams ($8,200) Tournament/cash play

I don’t mind spending up here for the most expensive receiver on the slate. Adams is in a nice spot with the seventh-highest team implied total for the Packers traveling to Cincinnati. According to AMFs receiving data Adams is top in the league in Air Yards, targets, yards, but is only eighth in ppr points. Why is that? A lack of touchdowns. I like Adams to find his way into the end zone this week with an outside chance at more than one score. If that happens you have hit the Yahtzee on a player that may go a bit under-owned due to price. 

Justin Jefferson ($7,700) and Adam Thielen ($6,600) Tournament/cash play

The Vikings are scoring a lot of points this week. Kirk Cousins is bound to have a big game and his targets are heavily concentrated on these two stud receivers. AMF tools have them receiving almost exactly 70% of the combined air yards on the Vikings. To go along with a near 50% total target share. Assuming they keep up their ability to find the end zone, or both of them are in line for a huge game. The stack with Kirk Cousins will be popular, but that’s for good reason.

Ceedee Lamb ($6,200) Tournament/cash play

Facing a poor Giants secondary, teammate Amari Cooper ailing, and Dak poised to increase his attempts leaves me loving Lamb this week. Using AMF tools his numbers aren’t popping in any single category. This is a more narrative-based pick. Lamb has all the talent and will probably have multiple slate-breaking games this year. At home against the Giants with the third-highest team total is a pretty good bet to be one of them. 

Jakobi Meyers ($5,600) Tournament/cash play

One of the coolest parts of AMFs site is that you can sort by week. James White got hurt in week three and Meyers has become Mac Jones's new favorite release valve target. Since week three Meyers is second in catches amongst wide receivers and tenth in receiving yards. But like Adams, he hasn’t been scoring touchdowns. Facing the Houston Texans he should have a great chance to change that. At this price, I like Meyers in both formats. I will say the Meyers/Jones stack will get you contrarian value in tournaments with the savings to pay up elsewhere. 

Other WR thoughts:

If healthy A.J. Brown ($6,500) is poised to smash value this week as he is discounted coming off an injury and facing a woeful Jaguars secondary. Curtis Samuel ($3,000) is mispriced at the minimum. Those needing savings should look to him. If Mccaffrey is out I have no problem paying up for DJ Moore ($7,500) again. If CMC is back I think I’ll pass and stay on Adams/Jefferson in that price range. I am out on Steelers pass catchers this week unless you consider Najee Harris ($6,900) a pass catcher (you should be FYI). And for that matter, I will stay away from the other side in that game Denver’s receiving options as well. I think there’s plenty of space for a Buccaneers WR to have a huge game but deciding which one to play is tough. Much better in tournaments than cash for all of Brady’s weapons. 

Tight Ends:

Mike Gesicki ($4,200) Tournament/cash play 

Once again I love using AMF tools to help me sort. Since taking over as the starter in week three Jacoby Brissett has awoken Mike Gesicki from his early-season slumber. In the last two weeks, Gesicki has been fourth in air yards, second in targets, first in catches, and third in DraftKings points. That is a steal this week even before considering the matchup. Tampa has struggled to defend tight ends all year and will likely be leading the game for the majority of the final three quarters. Gesicki should face plenty of soft coverage allowing him to eat on short-yardage routes combined with his elite athleticism on plays down the field. All of that put together makes him one of my favorite plays this week regardless of position. 

Evan Engram ($3,200) Cash-specific play.

I played him in all formats last week and got a bit burned. I will come back to the well one more time though. He has seen six targets each of the last two weeks and should be at full strength finally this coming week. Dallas has also been in the bottom ten of allowing DraftKings points to tight ends this year. And while those numbers can be a bit noisy especially this early in the season I like that to continue this week.

Other TE thoughts: 

You could spend up to Waller ($7,300) this week if you feel that will be contrarian. He does lead the position in air yards by almost 40% over the next closest tight end. Ricky Seals-Jones at the minimum is also not a bad play for those looking to punt the position. Finally, with Kittle ($5,600) and Hockenson ($5,500) both banged up and Kelce off the board your plays are thin. Don’t be afraid to eat some chalk with Gesicki or Waller this week and get different at other spots. 

Defense:

Cardinals ($2,900) Tournament specific play

I far prefer the plays below but a home matchup against a rookie QB when they have already shown a pension for turnovers and sacks is quite appealing. I think in tourneys they are much stronger as most people will either pay up for Pittsburgh ($3,300) or down to my plays listed below. 

Washington ($2,300) and the Eagles ($2,200) Tournament/cash play

Both are cheap on DraftKings, but more importantly, they are due for positive regression after underperforming on pass rush with the talent on their rosters. They now face Jameis Winston and Sam Darnold respectively this week. Don’t overthink it.