Week 5: Thinking RBs
October 10, 2021 · Sam Grant · NFL
Classic Roast Beef
At the very top end of the salaries for week 4 on DK we have the Big Dog Derrick Henry ($9,000). Henry has handled 113 carries for the Titans through 4 weeks of play which is 30(!) more than the next closest (Mixon with 83) for a cool 93% share of team RB attempts. Powering his way to 510 rushing yards for 4.5 yards per carry, 17 of these carries have come inside the red zone for an 85% team red zone share with 4 of those coming in the green zone (inside the 5-yard line) converting 2 green zone carries for TD’s with 4 TD overall. All this combines to make the King the highest-priced RB while his salary only got a bump of 200 after posting 33/147/1 last week.. If there is one tiny bubble we can poke at the usage, I will mention the 67% snap rate which tells us he is in for just roughly 2 of every 3 snaps. Henry travels to Jacksonville this week as 4 point favorites vs the Jags.
Austin Ekeler ($7,600) saw a price bump of 600 from last week where he posted 15 carries for 117 yards for a very high 7.8 YPC and 1 rush TD. Adding 3 catches for 28 yards and another score on 5 targets through the air. Rushing wise to date Ekeler has tallied 50 carries for 59% position share (with 12 coming in the red zone and 2 in the green zone) for 283 yards boasting a 5.6 YPC and 2 rushing TDs. Ekeler’s work in the receiving game is where he historically garners most of his fantasy value especially in the ppr format on DK. Converting 20 targets for a 12.6% target share into 18 receptions for 141 yards and another 2 TDs with 3 of those targets coming in the red zone. All this coming in weeks 2-4 as he saw a surprising 0 targets in week 1. Ekelers dual-threat ability makes him a strong play in all formats as he hosts Cleveland this week as a 2 point home favorite checking all the boxes we look for in RB plays.
Ezekiel Elliot ($7,000) gets a price bump up to 7k flat from 6.5 last week where he ran all over the Panthers. So far to date Zeke has been in on 75% snaps and toted 64 handoffs for a 61% share of RB carries with 10 coming in the red zone and 4 in the green zone converting 4/10 red zone and 3 of 4 green zone carries for TDs with all 4 of his total rushing TDs coming inside the 20. 64/342/4 rushing line which equates to 5.34 ypc looks very strong. A bit surprising is the target volume as so far only 8 targets on the year for a 6% share, catching 7 for 53 and 0. Historically, we know Zeke has registered strong seasons catching the ball from the backfield so I would not be overly concerned and expect some positive regression to his baseline receiving numbers. Zeke is worthy of a roster spot in all formats this week when they host the G-men as 7 point favorites in a high total game, checking all those boxes we like.
RBs Melt
Chuba Hubbard ($6,000) saw his salary rise 100 from last week where CMC missed and is now listed as doubtful again this week, putting Chuba squarely in play. We saw last week Hubbard got 81% of the RB carries for Carolina in a loss to Dallas yet only being in for 42% of snaps overall. The 13/52/0 line with 2/14 receiving is uninspiring, however, we should mostly be looking to target RBs in situations where they are favored to win the game and playing at home which is what we get this week as the Panthers are 3 point home favorites against the Eagles who have been tough on QBs and WRs while allowing RBs to mostly get whatever they want. Understand any wary of going there, but Chuba is surely in play for me.
Damien Williams ($5,600) should seemingly take over the backfield in Chicago with David Montgomery OUT for several weeks. We’ve seen Monty handle ~80% of RB carries at over 70% of snaps for the Bears and can expect Damien to slide right into that role with no depth behind to speak of. The role looks secure yet the game environment with Chicago being underdogs on the road to Vegas suggests they will be playing from behind. Not a situation I will be looking to target in cash but the potential to see more targets as a trailing team could make it a solid play in tournaments.
Leonard Fournette ($5,200) call me crazy and maybe I am, but I think Uncle Len is potentially cash viable this week. I know, I know… gross. Fournette played 82% snaps and saw 20 carries last week. RoJo came in and stole the TD but only played on 16% of snaps and got 6 carries. As 7 point home favorites with a high touch expectation, you could surely do worse than Lenny this week. *throws up*
Would you like to make it a meal?
Some situations to monitor include:
Dalvin Cook ($8,400), who Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Cook did "some work" at Friday's practice, following non-participation Wednesday and Thursday. Cook played through his injury last week and only received 9 carries to Alexander Mattison's ($5,500) 10. If Cook suits up again this week I would expect another split workload leaving both not worth a look. However, if Cook sits, Mattison and his cheap price tag instantly make him a top play on the slate in all formats. This is a noon kickoff so we will have the information prior to lock. Chase Edmonds ($5,900) missed Wed and Thurs practice but logged a limited participant on Friday, which is the most telling day of whether a player can suit up on Sunday or not. If Edmonds is not able to go, James Connor ($5,600) scored 2 TDs in back-to-back weeks and would look to play the majority of the snaps in a high-paced offense that is favored at home and would be a strong play in all formats.
Closing thoughts:
Josh Jacobs ($5,900) is a home favorite this week vs the Bears and caught 5 balls last week. He has seen 86% of RB carries on the year so if you expect that passing game usage to continue, Jacobs could be a strong tournament play this week. Historically we know Jacobs isn't used much as a receiver so I wouldn't trust it for cash but it is interesting for GPPs. Alvin Kamara ($8,600) has only seen 14 targets on the year and zero (0) targets last week. Yes, that is correct and no, that is not a typo. What’s up with that? Aaron Jones ($7,900) has a 4 TD game this year and a 22 all-purpose yard game in week 1. The ceiling being that high means he is always in play for tournaments and can totally break the slate at usually low ownership, while the floor that low leaves him as a risky cash play. Finally, Saquon Barkley ($7,300) has seen his production increase as we were told he would be eased back in to start the season. With a 16 carry/1TD/7 target game vs Atlanta week 3 followed up by 13 carries 5 catches and 2 TDs last week vs New Orleans, could it be that Barkley is all the way back?