NFL Week 12 DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome to week twelve of the Add More Funds DraftKings Main Slate Rundown. Remember, this is a weekly column. We are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we want to help both the experienced-player and beginners alike. To do this, every week we will release our favorite weekend classic slate plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly, projected to be under-owned. Plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. Finally, we will refer to specific data points such as air yards, or red zone rush attempts. Those can be found on our AMF website here.

Here is our week twelve NFL DraftKings main slate rundown.

Quarterback: 

Jalen Hurts ($7300) Cash-game play

Hurts had cooled down a bit prior to last week but is still showing an incredible rushing floor. With a season-high 18 rushing attempts last week and attempts rarely dipping into single digits, Hurts is essentially playing a secondary rushing role as well as quarterback. It is similar to having peak Le'veon Bell or Christian Mccaffrey when they have a WR2 role with an RB1 role. The Giants are not a tough matchup either. I expect this game to stay close throughout keeping the Eagles in their perfect mix of heavy QB-rush attack with some high success rate passing plays. 

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5700) Tournament only play

I don’t love this in cash but in tournaments this is a great play. Jimmy G will be lower owned due to his perceived low ceiling. However, that couldn’t be more false. Garoppolo actually has a low floor in certain game scripts, but his ceiling is just as high as almost any other quarterback. In 2019 Garoppolo had three games where he was a tournament-winning type quarterback in that week (Halloween with 317 pass yards and four TDs, November 17th with 424 pass yards and four TDs, and December 8th with 349 yards and four TDs). Stack that upside in this juicy matchup against the Vikings with the right pass-catching teammates and you are well on your way to victory. You could even run it back with Cook ($8100) or Thielen ($6700) who are both very cheap for their role/upside. 

Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) Cash-game play

I know it's never fun to play Tyrod. Nonetheless, the savings are obvious and the floor/ceiling combo is great in this matchup against the lowly Jets. They do not generate pressure on the quarterback allowing for more deep shot opportunities. Tyrod is also running at a high enough rate to offer a rushing floor of a few bonus points plus any touchdowns (he had two last week). 

Other QB thoughts:

Zach Wilson ($5,100) in tournaments is a good pivot off of other 5k quarterbacks. Cam Newton ($5,600) is also strong in cash for a second week in a row. Herbert ($6,600) is also very cheap for his upside/ability. I think the quarterbacks in the Packers/Rams game could be faded in both formats. 

Running Back: 

Christian Mccaffrey ($9,000) Play in all formats.

According to AMF tools, Mccaffrey has managed 90 snaps the last two weeks. In that time he has received 40 touches. The key is that seventeen of those have been receptions. That is tied for the most in the league with pro bowl caliber receivers Keenan Allen and Justin Jefferson. My point from the Jalen Hurts writeup stands. You are getting a low-end RB1 and WR1 in the same player here. 

Joe Mixon ($7,500) Tournament only play 

There are a lot of high-priced running backs that will be attractive in tournaments this week. Jonathan Taylor ($9,100) and Austin Ekeler ($8,400) are both coming off of huge games and will be popular. Najee Harris ($8,200), Cook ($8,100), and even Fournette ($6,800) will also be owned in tournaments. I think Mixon slides in as a nice leverage play off both of the other running backs, but also receivers on his own team. The icing on the cake is that with our AMF tools we can see that he is getting near league-high rates in attempts, and attempts in the red zone and money zone. He also is fourth in the league this year in rush yards and that includes Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb (who is not on the slate). 

AJ Dillon ($5,900) Prefer in cash but also will sprinkle in tournaments

Last week in his first game with the full-time role, Dillon had an efficient eleven carries for 53 yards with another six catches for 44 yards. It was clear they trust him heavily in the pass game too as the broadcast kept raving how the coaching staff loved his pass-catching ability. I think game flow hurt his opportunities with the Packers connecting on multiple deep shots and trailing most of the game. Fire him up again. 

Other RB thoughts:

Jeff Wilson ($5,300) and Myles Gaskin ($5,600) once again project strongly. I also like a stab on Barkley ($6,300) in tournaments. I will also be avoiding all backs in the Tennessee versus New England game as both of those backfields are brutal to project with three guys each getting touches. 

Wide Receivers: 

Keenan Allen ($7,400) Prefer in cash but also will sprinkle in tournaments

Slightly overshadowed by the seasons Hill and Kupp are having is a quietly great season by Allen. He has over 800 yards (eighth in the league) and 70 catches (third in the league). Where he is not smashing is in the TD department. He only has two this year and even though his red zone/end zone targets are not enough off the charts he is still due for positive regression. 

Brandin Cooks ($5,800) Play in all formats.

Pairs nicely with Tyrod in cash. Pairs great with your run back stack with Wilson in tournaments. He has the fifth highest target percentage amongst wide receivers in the league at almost 30%. Pair that with his second in the league air yards percentage (43%) and you can see the floor/ceiling combo is excellent. His price is great and honestly, he will continue to go overlooked as long as he is in Houston with Tyrod Taylor. 

Kadarius Toney ($5,200) Tournament only play 

This is more of a “heads up this guy is sweet” writeup than a “this is a guy I love in week twelve.” Toney saw the eighth-most air yards in the league last week and 100% of his teams red zone targets. The red zone targets are unsustainable obviously, but it shows what the Giants and Daniel Jones think of him as a player. I don’t think it’s wrong to stay consistently overweight on Toney in tournaments the rest of the year. 

Other WR thoughts:

Just a reminder Cooper Kupp ($9,600) and Davante Adams ($8,600) are still good plays in tournaments as no one else possesses their upside. Jerry Jeudy ($5,500) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,000) are also fun tourney darts. I think the receivers in Atlanta/Jacksonville and Miami/Carolina are going to be fades across the board for me. 

Tight Ends:

George Kittle ($6,400) Prefer in tournaments

This goes great with the Jimmy Garoppolo play mentioned earlier. Regardless if you’re stacking or not, with Kittle you’re getting a solid tight end who is at or near the top of all of our important AMF categories since returning from injury. The Vikings do cover tight ends well, but they also haven’t faced any of the top tight ends or one as athletic as Kittle.

Dallas Goedert ($4,800) Play in all formats 

Since Zach Ertz has left Goedert has stepped into a Travis Kelce light type of role. With a 26% share which is higher than Waller, Kittle, Andrews, and Kelce. The thing I like most about Goedert is that he is the rare tight end with an aDOT over ten yards (10.4). Of tight ends that have received double-digit targets the last five weeks only Kyle Pitts ($6,100) has a higher aDOT. 

Other TE thoughts: 

Pitts ($6,100) and Gronkowski ($4,400) are both excellent tournament options this week. I also don’t mind a stab on Jared Cook ($3,000) as a play off of his higher upside teammates. 

Defense: 

Falcons/Jaguars ($2,500/2,200) 

This game just feels gross. Both of these quarterbacks have a propensity to throw the ball to the other team and they also lack quality receiving options. The cherry on top is both backfields have injuries resulting in skill-position talent being worse than that Bears-Lions Thanksgiving game. 

Texans ($2,300) Play in all formats

A home favorite against Zach Wilson is the second cheapest defense on the slate. This will be wildly popular in tournaments and cash games alike.