We all know that Vegas is generally pretty sharp in setting their lines and odds, but even former bookmakers will tell you that by far the most exploitable lines are Player Props. For baseball, there is a ton of variance in hitter props, but pitcher strikeout props can be exploited a bit more.
For today, we have just one prop that I really like. Let’s take a look:
Michael Wacha Over 5 Strikeouts
Wacha, with is 20% career strikeout rate, has never been a particularly strong strikeout pitcher, but he has ramped up the swing and miss stuff so far this year. His swinging strike rate is up nearly 3% (to 12.3%) from his career average so far this year, and that’s even with a somewhat down game in his last outing (just 8%) against a Pirates team that doesn’t swing and miss much. Wacha has always been predominately a fastball/changeup pitcher, with his changeup being his best pitch, but he’s improved his cutter this year to give him a third quality pitch to help keep hitters off balance. His matchup today is also a juicy one against a Blue Jays team that has really struggled in the early going, particularly against righties, as shown by a 24% K rate & 5th worst wRC+ (76). The Blue Jays are missing two of their best hitters in Josh Donaldson & Troy Tulowitzki due to injury, and they’ll be without a DH playing in the NL park, so pitcher Marco Estrada will have to swing the bat. All this adds up to a nice strikeout spot for Wacha, so I’ll definitely take the over 5 here.