Week 6 Pass Catchers Report: D.K Metcalf Blast-Off

We are back with another week of football under our belt. Who knows if the NFL actually finish the season without a delay due to COVID. But I’m here to enjoy it while it lasts.

Last week we fared well with Darius Slayton and Marquise Brown posting bounce back performances, and A.J Green and Hayden Hurst both posting season lows in PPR points. 

Just as a reminder, here’s what I mean by stock up, stock down, and hold. 

• Stock Up: Simply, they should outscore their season average points per game in their next few matchups and make for a good play in DFS.
• Stock Down: The opposite of stock up but the same concept. They should produce below their seasonal points per game average and are not a good play in DFS.
• Hold: They are appropriately priced in DFS and their production is sustainable based on the advanced stats and metrics. 

Last Week’s Performance

• Stock Up Players: +8.95 points over season PPR PPG.
• Stock Down Players: -6.98 points under season PPR PPG. 

Stock Up

Terry McLaurin, WR, Football Team | DK: $6,400, FD: 6,900

The Football Team’s WR1 can and should post top 10 numbers over the next few weeks. He is currently the WR15 despite facing a gauntlet of corners in weeks 1-5 including Darius Slay, Patrick Peterson, and Jalen Ramsey. His schedule lightens up in a big way in weeks 6-8, taking on the Giants, the Cowboys, and then the Giants again. He should be treated as a low-end WR1 in these matchups with the potential for week winning upside when he finds the endzone. 

McLaurin’s advanced stats have looked amazing and it should translate to big-time fantasy performances. He is fourth in snap share in the NFL, running a route on every Football Team dropback so far, per PlayerProfiler. He’s also third in air yard share, and 8th in targets. Some may say that the matchup against the Giants is tough, but I am willing to play him in DFS at lower ownership. McLaurin has already overcome tougher matchups this season. He crushed Patrick Peterson on his way to 7/125/1 and Ravens cornerback Anthony Averett with a 10/118/0 line. 

A.J Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans| DK: $5,600, FD: 6,500

A.J Brown came back in a big way in the first Tuesday night football game since 1946. He occupied 48% of the air yards on his way to a 7/82/1 line against the Buffalo Bills. With Corey Davis inactive for this game, no other Titan receiver had more than two targets. If the Bills kept last week’s game close, Brown could have cakewalked into a 100-yard game. He has a soft upcoming schedule as well, taking on the Texans, Steelers, and Bengals. 

Hold

D.K Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks | BYE WEEK

You may be wondering if D.K Metcalf can sustain this current level of production. Short answer: Yes. But here’s a longer explanation. Metcalf is second in air yards share, 4th in end-zone targets, and second in TD’s in the NFL. Metcalf has overtaken Lockett in this Seahawks offense as the 1a to Lockett’s 1b. D.K Metcalf is the WR2 overall thus far and is well on his way to a top-five season. Jamal Adams was not outlandish to say that D.K Metcalf is a new era Megatron. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Metcalf is Calvin Johnson, but he has the ability to dominate top-tier cornerbacks (see week two vs Stephon Gilmore), and he also has the privilege of future MVP Russell Wilson throwing him the football. 

Stock Down

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys | DK: $6,300, FD: $6,400

I know this is shocking, but let’s play a little “player A vs player B” for a second.

Player A is CeeDee Lamb, who is currently the WR10 in PPR formats. Player B is Damiere Byrd, who is currently the WR87. Now, I don’t think Lamb will completely fall off the map, but I think he is less of a WR1 for fantasy purposes and more of a WR3. Simply put, he is not excelling in the advanced stats that we look at that point to future fantasy success. His 71% snap share is 54th in the NFL, his 22% air yard share is 55th, and his 17% target share is good for 43rd. All of this combined with losing your stud quarterback equates to a lot of negative regression. Andy Dalton is one of the better backups in the NFL, but he is not going to provide the same fantasy goodness that Prescott brought in the first five weeks of the season. I still think Lamb is a stud WR, and a top ten WR in dynasty formats, but I am out on him in season-long and daily fantasy games. 

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $6,900, FD: 7,600

After another disappointing performance from Mike Evans, I’m officially concerned. For starters, Evans has only topped 50 receiving yards twice this year, while recording under 5 receiving yards twice as well. Keep in mind, this is all without Chris Godwin, who has played through injuries throughout the year and sat out of three games thus far. Even in Godwin’s absence, Evans has only commanded an 18% target share. He has been the de-facto goalline back for the Buccaneers this season, scoring five of his six touchdowns from six yards or fewer away from the end zone. But, with both Godwin and actual goalline back Leonard Fournette returning, I do not see how Evans sustains his current level of production. He is the quintessential TD-dependent option with an astounding 53% of his fantasy points coming from touchdown catches. To make matters worse, the Bucs have a tough slate of matchups for WR1’s on the horizon, per Mike Beers.