Week 7 Pass Catchers Report: Fading Calvin Ridley?

We are back for another edition of the Pass Catchers Report! Last week we hit big on fading Mike Evans, as he posted just 2 PPR points in the return of Chris Godwin. However, Terry McLaurin didn’t find the end zone like we were hoping, but he still posted a solid 7/74 line. McLaurin is in a great smash spot against the Cowboys this week. He's much too chalky for me to write a blurb about this week, but he is a great cash game play. 

Here’s how we have fared this season: 

Last Week’s Performance

• Stock Up Players: +3.35 points over season PPR PPG.
• Stock Down Players: -9.24 points under season PPR PPG. 

Season Long Performance

• Stock Up Players: +6.15 points over season PPR PPG.
• Stock Down Players: -8.12 points under season PPR PPG. 

Just as a reminder, here’s what I mean by stock up, stock down, and hold. 

• Stock Up: Simply, they should outscore their season average points per game in their next few matchups and make for a good play in DFS.
• Stock Down: The opposite of stock up but the same concept. They should produce below their seasonal points per game average and are not a good play in DFS.
• Hold: They are appropriately priced in DFS and their production is sustainable based on the advanced stats and metrics. These are players that you should hold in your season-long leagues unless a favorable trade offer arises. 

Stock Up

D.J Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,500

D.J Chark assembled one of the most disappointing 14 target performances you’ll ever see. However, he still posted season highs in air yards, targets, and red zone targets in the Jaguars week six loss to the Lions. He has received heavy usage for most of the season, but recently his red-zone usage has seen an uptick. Through the first three weeks of the season, Chark only saw one red-zone target and one end zone target. However, since week four, he has seen seven red-zone targets (1st in the NFL) and four end zone targets (2nd in the NFL). Also, outside of a week one win against Indianapolis, Gardner Minshew has thrown over 40 passes in every game. The Jaguars rank second in pass attempts since week 2, only trailing the Dallas Cowboys. Chark has plenty of opportunities on an often trailing team with little to no competition for targets. His biggest competition is staying healthy. 

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals | DK: $5,300 FD: $5,700

Tee Higgins has been a pleasant surprise to Bengals fans and sharp (or lucky) fantasy owners. He is the WR11 since week three, but he’s priced as the WR32 on DraftKings and WR__ on FanDuel. Higgins has shown signs of improvements every single week, and over the last three weeks, he has seen an almost 7% increase in his target share over his season-long average. He’s also made himself into a vital part of the Bengals gameplan, seeing no less than six targets in every game since week two. On top of that, his main competition for targets is A.J Green, and I wouldn’t put it past him to retire midgame at some point during the season like Vontae Davis back in 2018. Higgins’s next two matchups come against the Browns and the Titans, who have been crushed by WR2’s this season, per Mike Beers. 

Hold

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings | BYE 

This is for my season-long people, but please, please hold Justin Jefferson if you have him. He’s been the overall WR1 since week three despite his low red-zone usage. On the other hand, Thielen has been the only receiver that Cousins looks to near the end-zone. Cousins has nine TD passes since week 3. Five of which have gone to Thielen, three to Jefferson, and one to Rudolph. Jefferson scored a TD on his lone red-zone target of the year, while Thielen has seen eight red-zone targets on top of nine end zone targets to start the year. If the red-zone usage evens out at all between Thielen and Jefferson, and I suspect it will, then Jefferson can easily finish as a top-12 receiver. I would only trade him only for elite WR’s or RB’s at this point, and that’s only if you have a need. 

Stock Down

Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons | DK: $7,300, FD: $8.400

Before you crucify me, let the stats speak for themselves. 

Calvin Ridley Weeks 1-3: 

• Snap%: 87.39
• Air Yards: 560
• Air Yard%: 43.08
• Target %: 27.78
• Red-Zone Targets: 7
• End-Zone Targets: 7

Calvin Ridley Weeks 4-6: 

• Snap %: 70.7
• Air Yards: 286
• Air Yard %: 31.5
• Target %: 19.82
• Red-Zone Targets: 2
• End-Zone Targets: 1

So basically, Calvin Ridley is trending down in everything that matters. Even if you take out his zero-point week four performance, his advanced stats don’t change all that much. What is most concerning is the absence of red-zone usage. After garnering over 2 red-zone targets and 2 end-zone targets per game in weeks 1-3, the Falcons have deleted Ridley from the red-zone gameplan. He hasn’t seen an end-zone target since week four against the Green Bay Packers but did haul in a TD last week against the Detroit Lions from eight yards out. However, his upcoming schedule is what has his name on this list. This week he takes on the Detroit Lions, who rank as the 8th stingiest defense against WR2’s. Then, they take on the Panthers who rank as the stingiest defense against wide receivers in general, as they funnel everything toward their league-worst run defense.  

Keelan Cole, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars| DK: $4,700 FD: $5,500

Keelan Cole had a huge performance last week, but it would be beyond bold to say that kind of output is sustainable. He had a couple of huge catches last week for 51,35, and 24 yards, and it’s unreasonable to expect that to continue. Cole is 5th on the team in both red-zone targets and end-zone targets, which tells me that he lacks any kind of upside. While the Jaguars are forced to throw the ball a ton, Minshew can really only support one top-24 wide receiver, and that receiver is not Keelan Cole. While Cole has been a great story coming out of Kentucky Wesleyan, he is simply no match for the much faster, much more productive D.J Chark.