Week 9 Pass Catchers Report: Judge Jeudy Breakout Week

After watching Thursday Night Football with the 49ers featuring seventh-rounder Richie James as their WR1, I’m becoming more and more unsure if we’ll actually finish this season out unscathed. The 2020 NFL season has become a battle of attrition. However, we’re here to talk about some week nine football, so let’s get into it. But first, let’s recap our subpar week eight showing. 

The Rams wide receivers finally had the breakout game against all odds, but they are hardly a buy moving forward. While on one hand, Robert Woods had his best game of the season and Cooper Kupp had his second-best game, it took a peculiar game script to get there. Thanks to a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown from the Miami Dolphins, the Los Angeles Rams had the opportunity to run 92 offensive plays. Jared Goff threw the ball 61 times after throwing no more than 38 times in a game in the first seven weeks. The Rams were forced into this game script, and unless you see this continuing, then their week seven loss was more of an outlier than a trend. 

Here’s how we have fared this season: 

Last Week’s Performance

• Stock Up Players: +14.1 points over season PPR PPG. 

     *Richard Rodgers was excluded due to the late news of Dallas Goedert returning. 

• Stock Down Players: -0.43 points under season PPR PPG. 

     For the Rams receivers, I gathered the average of all LAR receivers in weeks 1-7 and compared it to their week 8 total. Then, I took the average difference of all the receivers. 

Season Long Performance

• Stock Up Players: +5.02 points over season PPR PPG.
• Stock Down Players: -5.83 points under season PPR PPG. 

Just as a reminder, here’s what I mean by stock up, and stock down. 

• Stock Up: Simply, they should outscore their season average points per game in their next few matchups and make for a good play in DFS.
• Stock Down: The opposite of stock up but the same concept. They should produce below their seasonal points per game average and are not a good play in DFS. 

Stock Up

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,700

When it comes to rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy, it will never be a matter of talent, but opportunity. Jeudy was the most talented wide receiver in the 2020 draft, but he landed in a sub-optimal spot on the Denver Broncos. Finally, the Broncos gave him the usage he deserved in week 8. Jeudy set season highs in snap share, air yards, air yard share, targets, target share, and receiving yards. However, he only turned all those season highs into 11.3 PPR points. On the bright side, he faces the Atlanta Falcons this week in what could be a high scoring affair. Jeudy is the next rookie WR in line for a breakout game. Start him in season-long and fire him up in GPP’s. 

Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants | DK: $4,300 FD: $5,500

I have been loathing the day where I would write up a New York Giant in the stock up column. But, it’s 2020, anything is on the table. Evan Engram has the perfect matchup in place to have his breakout game. This week the Giants take on division rival Football Team in the dumpster fire of the NFC East. The Football Team has been the toughest defense to face for opposing wide receivers, while profiling as the ninth easiest matchup against tight ends. Also, Engram’s usage is trending in the right direction. In weeks 1-5, he never saw more than 50 air yards and never topped 20% of the Giant’s air yard share. In weeks 6-8, he saw over 50 air yards in two of three games, while never dipping below a 22% air yard share. He’s also commanded four red-zone targets in his last two games, while only commanding four in the first six games of the season. To close things out, the Giants posted season highs in total offense against a stout Buccaneers defense in week eight. 

Stock Down

Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers | DK: $6,300, FD: $6,600

Robby Anderson has been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2020 season, but it may be time to temper our expectations. Anderson tallied four top-20 finishes in the Panthers' first five games but has failed to post a top-30 game since then. This includes two fantasy-friendly games against the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints in which he failed to top 14 PPR points in either game. Through weeks 1-5, Robby Anderson saw one red-zone target a game along with 0.75 end-zone targets per game. Since then, he has just one end zone target with zero red-zone targets to show for. All of this combined with a tough matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs does not bode well for Anderson. The Chiefs have been one of the stingiest defenses against opposing pass catchers and Anderson is projected to line up against Charvarius Ward, who has only allowed over 40 yards in a game once this season. 

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings | DK: $6,700 FD: $7,700

Adam Thielen has enjoyed a productive 2020 campaign, and he is currently the WR13 in PPR formats. However, Thielen may be performing above and beyond what I see as sustainable. Thielen has been a TD-magnet through 7 games with an NFL-leading 7 receiving TD’s (tied with five other players). However, it may be unrealistic for this to continue. First, the Vikings want to run the ball as much as they can. The Vikings rank 32nd in pass rate when the game is within seven points, per Sharp Football Stats. On top of that, Justin Jefferson has emerged as a soon to be superstar, which impacts the number of targets that Thielen can expect per game. That may not seem like a huge deal, but the Vikings rank dead last in pass attempts per game with just 27 pass attempts per contest. Next up, the Vikings take on the Detroit Lions followed by the Chicago Bears. Both contests profile as slow, low-scoring games. So I would temper my expectations for Thielen moving forward.