NFL Week 9 MNF DraftKings Showdown Breakdown

Welcome to Week Nine of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Chicago Bears in a matchup featuring the lowest game total (39) of the week, favoring the home Steelers by 7.0 points. Chicago is on a three-game skid while allowing 30+ points and over 400 yards of offense in consecutive games. In their three wins this season, they’ve allowed 17 points or less so in order to stay in this game the Bears’ defense must show up. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is on a three-game win streak and looking to stay in front of Cincinnati and Cleveland in an extremely competitive AFC North division. The Bears’ and Steelers’ offenses have struggled to move the ball and score points, ranking 32nd (294.3) and 27th (340.4) respectively in total yards, and 31st (15.4) and 26th (18.9) in points scored. Chicago enters Week Nine as the only NFL team with more rushing yards (1,093) than passing yards (1,019) and could blame that on their NFL-leading 30 allowed sacks or Matt Nagy’s skeptical play-calling. Pittsburgh ranks fourth in sacks per game at 2.7 and has increased that total to 3.7 in their last three games. T.J. Watt has a sack or more in five of six games and currently ranks third in the NFL with 8.5 sacks. The Bears must keep the pocket clean for their rookie quarterback and establish the run game early in order to give themselves a chance in this one. The Steelers have been a force to reckon with in-home MNF games winning 19 straight and holding a 27-5 home record since 1970. They boast the highest winning percentage in the NFL at 66.2% going 49-25 over 74 games. 

Team Breakdown

Chicago will be without defensive star Khalil Mack for the second straight game and despite 21 sacks on the season, failed to record one without Mack in last week’s matchup against San Francisco. Reports suggest David Montogomery will be making his return from injured reserve after missing the last four games and it's hard to believe the Bears’ would rush the 24-year-old back if not fully healthy. Rookie running back Khalil Herbert has been great in his absence with 388 total yards in those four contests. The Bears rank sixth in the league with 136.6 rushing yards per game but dead last in passing yards (127.4). They will hope Justin Fields can protect the ball against a Steelers defense that was second in takeaways in 2020 but only has six midway through the 2021 season. Fields has seven interceptions, eight fumbles (two lost), and has been sacked 26 times so far this year but is coming off his best game as a pro after throwing for 175 yards and rushing for 103 more with scores through the air and on the ground. 

Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t lived up to the hype they generated last year - with over ten multi-turnover games in 2020, they have yet to replicate that success this year and will look for this matchup to do so. Chicago has 11 giveaways on the year but Field’s has fumbled eight times and only lost two, generating a lot of opportunity for takeaways. If the Steelers are going to move the ball against this stout Bears defense, they will need their offensive line to continue its recent success. During their three-game win streak, they’ve allowed only four sacks, after allowing ten through the first four games of the year. Najee Harris has the highest opportunity share in the league at 89.8% and has scored in three of the last four games. Look for him to be heavily featured in Pittsburgh’s game plan after seeing between 25-30 touches in the last three games. 

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields ($10,400 or $15,300)

Pittsburgh’s defense is middle of the road in yards allowed per pass attempt at 6.9 but have allowed the eighth least DraftKings points (18.4) to the quarterback position this year. With Matt Nagy returning to call plays it's hard to envision Chicago’s offense being that productive carrying the lowest implied total (16.25) of Week 9. Field’s ability to run will allow for a solid floor as he produced 103, 38, and 43 rushing yards in the last three games respectively. The Steelers have only allowed an average of 11 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season but allowed Josh Allen to run for 44 yards and Aaron Rodgers to rush for a touchdown. His ownership comes in at 41.5% with only 6.1% electing for him in the Captain position. After seeing a season-high in red-zone opportunities (8) last week, there is potential for Field’s finding the endzone again tonight.

Ben Roethlisberger ($10,600)

Seeing much higher ownership than the opposing gunslinger, there’s reason to fade Pittsburgh’s aging quarterback from your Captain slot despite being the third-highest projected Captain (11.0%) of the slate. Roethlisberger has yet to top more than 18.2 DraftKings points in a game this year, showing a generally low ceiling for the quarterback position. Chicago’s defense has allowed 8.1 yards per pass attempt which is the fifth-worst in the league but Rothlisberger has lost the ability to push the ball down the field in his age-39 season. For the third straight year, he carries an average yards per pass attempt under 7.0 and has his lowest touchdown per pass attempt percentage (3.0%) of his 18-year career. This offense no longer revolves around Ben Roethlisberger even if they hold the seventh highest pass:run ratio in the league.

Running Backs 

David Montgomery ($8,400)

This is a status that needs to be monitored up to game-time as Montgomery has been designated to return from injured reserve but with the new rules regarding IR, this doesn’t necessarily mean he’s active for tonight’s game. If Montgomery does return from his four-game absence, expect him to pick up where he left off after a scorching hot start to begin the season. As a focal point of the Bears’ offense, it’d be surprising, to say the least, if they pushed his availability if not at 100%. Especially with how rookie replacement Khalil Herbert has played in his place. If Montgomery is active consider that reason to slot him in your lineup as the Bears have continued to limit their passing game plan for a multitude of reasons. Averaging 4.8 yards per touch this season and seeing 75 touches through four games displays the opportunity ahead for Montgomery if he is indeed activated.  

Khalil Herbert ($8,200)

A revelation for Chicago in the absence of their typical starter, Herbert came in as a sixth-round rookie and ran for 72 yards or more in four straight games. Pittsburgh presents a difficult matchup as their rush defense has allowed only 4.2 yards per carry and the second least amount of rushing touchdowns (2). The Steelers “Steel Curtain” has allowed the fifth-least DraftKings points (19.9) to the running back position and have been even tougher in the red zone with the second-best rank in that area of the field at 2.9 DK points per game. It’s tough to predict the amount of opportunity both Chicago RBs will see but with Damien Williams out that leaves both Montgomery and Herbert to carry the load for the sixth-best rushing attack in the league. 

Najee Harris ($12,400 or $18,600)

As stated above, no player in the NFL has seen more of the team’s opportunity share than rookie Najee Harris. Currently projected as the highest selected Captain of the slate at 16.1% and with all the opportunity coming his way, it’s hard to argue against the play. Harris has the fourth-most carries (128) in the NFL and with Roethlisberger checking down more than ever has been targeted the second-most at his position with 49 targets. His 22 red zone touches rank 12th in the league and despite the massive opportunity has only found the end zone five times this season. His efficiency hasn’t been impressive with only 3.8 true yards per carry (47th) but with so much opportunity it’s hard to find a safer play in tonight’s game. Chicago has allowed an average of 27 touches to the running back position and with the other committee of backs in Pittsburgh averaging below two carries and less than a target per game most, if not all, these touches should fall to Harris.

Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney ($6,400 or $10,500)

Has Mooney surpassed Allen Robinson II as the WR1 in Chicago? The stats would suggest so. On the season Mooney has 9 more targets than Robinson II and has outproduced his counterpart by over 130 yards. Pittsburgh’s defense has been significantly tougher against the run than the pass but with Chicago’s inability to protect the quarterback it’s hard to envision the Bears’ electing to throw all too often. Mooney was a late addition to the injury report on Thursday so his status is one to monitor up to game-time. With three games over 12.4 points DraftKings points and the other four under 7.6, he makes for a boom-or-bust candidate that could see decent work in a comeback setting. He looks like Fields' go-to target with 26.1% of the target share through eight games. 

Allen Robinson II ($7,200)

Seeing his target share dip below 20% for the past two weeks leaves reason for concern for the former star receiver. Does this fall on play-calling, a rookie quarterback with limited protection upfront, or has Robinson II lost his step? His 0.89 average yards of separation rank 99th in the league despite a 5.41 average yards of cushion which is tenth best. Videos have surfaced of the inaccuracy when Robinson II is open as is displayed through his 75.0% catchable target rate. He only has one more target than Marquise Goodwin in the last two games and with seven or fewer targets in all of Fields’ starts this season there’s a legitimate concern with slotting him in your lineup. 

Diontae Johnson ($11,200 or $16,800)

An absolute target magnet throughout the season, Johnson has seen 10-13 targets in five games this year. In every game he’s been healthy he has produced 14.6 DraftKings points or more. He has two performances over 20 points this season with both games coming in a loss. With the second-highest route participation (98.6%) and fourth-highest target share (30.0%), he comes with extraordinary opportunity. His 2.32 yards of separation per target ranks fifth-best in the league and with 200 yards after catch (12th) he turns this opportunity into production. Chicago allows the fifth-most DK points to the wide receiver position, allowing 195.1 yards per game and 1.5 touchdowns. 

Chase Claypool ($9,000 or $13,500)

It’s been five weeks since Claypool has seen over 7 targets in a game and tonight’s matchup may present the game flow to end that mark. Back in Week 3, Claypool saw 15 targets in a 24-10 defeat to the divisional rival Cincinnati Bengals. The issue with Claypool in this 2021 Pittsburgh offense, is the quarterback's ability to throw downfield accurately. His 333 unrealized air yards (12th) describe the opportunity present, but banking on Roethlisberger’s accuracy improving feels doubtful. The biggest piece in Claypool’s favor tonight is his matchup with Bears’ defensive back Kindle Vindor who last week allowed 105 yards to Deebo Samuel on only five targets. 

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet ($5,800)

Holding the third-highest target share on the Bears roster, Kmet has seen his target share rise in the past four weeks. He has 21 targets in the last four games and has turned that into 14 receptions yielding 138 scoreless yards. His 197 unrealized air yards are second-highest at his position and leave reason to expect Kmet hasn’t had his ceiling game yet. He’s a safe play at this price point to target in a matchup against the Steelers who have allowed 4.6 receptions for 47.7 yards to the tight end position. 

Pat Freiermuth ($7,000)

Seeing seven targets in the previous two games for the Steelers, Freiermuth has become a legitimate fantasy option. Eric Ebron will miss his second straight game opening up more opportunities for the rookie tight end. In the last two games, he’s produced 11 receptions for 102 receiving yards and a touchdown. Of his 14 targets, three came in the red zone and it’s beginning to look as if he’s one of Ben Roethlisberger's favorite targets.  His 122.5 QB rating when targeted is eighth-best at his position and the highest mark on the Steelers roster. 

Defenses

Chicago Bears ($2,600)

The Bears defense has struggled mightily in the past two games allowing 33 points and 467 yards of offense to the 49ers, following a game versus the Buccaneers when they surrendered 38 points and 408 yards of offense. Not all this blame is to be placed on the defensive unit, as the offensive struggles in these matchups made for a very difficult situation. Pittsburgh presents an offensive unit that has struggled to protect the quarterback at the beginning of the season, although lately, the unit appears to be meshing together and keeping Roethlisberger upright. 

Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,000 or $7,500)

Coming in as the fourth-highest projected Captain (7.1%), the Steelers have a golden opportunity to capture some of the hype they had coming into the 2021 season. Chicago has been the fourth-most giving offense to opposing defenses, allowing an average of 3.8 DraftKings points per game. Their 3.8 sacks allowed per game is the highest in the league and the Steelers front seven know how to get after the opposing quarterback with 19 sacks on the year. The Bears are averaging one thrown interception and nearly one fumble per game. Confidently slot the Steelers in your Flex or Captain spot for tonight’s low-scoring affair.

The Bottom Line

Two teams on the opposite spectrum will faceoff in what feels like an old-school defensive battle. The Steelers should enter off their bye week motivated to stay ahead of their competitive division. The Bears look like an udder disaster with head coach Matt Nagy sitting on a ticking time bomb. Both teams deploy a running back workhorse that should see between 20-30 touches while their respective quarterbacks rank in the bottom-ten of QB rating. The defenses both make for intriguing plays that allow you to fill the remaining slots of your lineup with offensive workhorses. Don’t look past selecting a kicker from either team as Chris Boswell and Cairo Santos have been solid for their respective teams this year. In a low-scoring game, kickers are typically more involved than usual. Boswell is 12-of-13 for field goals on the season with a long of 56-yards while Santos is a perfect 11-of-11 with a long of 47-yards.