NFL Week 8 MNF DraftKings Showdown Breakdown

Welcome to Week Eight of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

The New York Giants will travel to Kansas City for their third straight game without Saquon Barkley. The Giants have been battle-tested in their previous four weeks with games against the New Orleans Saints, the Dallas Cowboys, the Los Angeles Rams and the Carolina Panthers. Leaving that schedule 2-2 is an impressive feat for a team who has been struggling with health at the offensive skilled positions. Kansas City is coming off their worst offensive performance of the Patrick Mahomes era after a 27-3 loss to Tennessee last week. This Monday Night matchup holds the highest game total of Week 8’s slate at 52.0 favoring the Chiefs by 10.5 points. These franchises have only met 14 times, with New York dominating the series at 11-3. The last meeting came back in November 2017, when the Giants won in overtime 12-9. 

Team Breakdown

New York enters Week Eight with several injuries to key offensive pieces but has been satisfactory offensively regardless. Averaging just under 20 points per game and ranking 16th in total yards per game (368.7), allowed the Giants to win tough games against the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers this year. New York’s defense has been rather strong against the pass and on third down, allowing 243.1 yards per game and forcing a 38.3% conversion rate. Leonard Williams has a sack in three of his last four games and is third on the team in tackles with 39. Creating pressure and containing the running game will be the keys to holding down this Chiefs offensive attack. Establishing the run offensively will take pressure off Daniel Jones with a depleted set of weapons, while also helping the Giants win the possession battle.

Kansas City is off to a surprising start for most fans, as the back-to-back AFC Champions fell to 3-4 following a 27-3 beatdown in Week 7 to the Tennessee Titans. Turnovers have been the biggest issue for the Chiefs, who have a -10 turnover ratio to begin the season. The Giants are sitting at a zero turnover ratio, so this could end up being the difference of the game. I expect the Chiefs to attempt to establish more of a ground presence but Darrel Williams, who is filling in for typical starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire, has only 82 yards on 26 carries (3.16 yards per carry) over the past two weeks. The Giants run defense ranks 23rd in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.4 and have seen the 11th most rushing attempts per game at 28.4. Meanwhile, the Chiefs only attempt 23.9 runs per game which is the fifth-lowest rush attempts per game at 35.2%. In order to take advantage of the Giants' defensive weaknesses, look for Andy Reid to dial up a few more rush attempts this Monday Night. 

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones ($10,200 or $15,300)

The Chiefs defense has presented a must-start opportunity for opposing quarterbacks so far this year. Allowing 26.6 (31st) DraftKings points per game with success by air and ground making Jones a candidate for the Captain spot. The New York quarterback has had three games over 22 (22.4, 29.5 and 30.8) DK points this year and two average games (17.5 and 16.5, respectively) against Carolina last week and Atlanta in Week Three. This shows the floor in a matchup like this as well as the ceiling in the chance the Giants keep it closer than the spread suggests. Daniel Jones also has had a few duds this year but those came against significantly better defensive units in the Los Angeles Rams and the Dallas Cowboys. Ranking 31st in overall, pass and run DVOA gives plenty of reason to target an underdogs quarterback in a high-scoring affair.

Patrick Mahomes ($12,000)

This certainly is not a matchup where you want to fade Mahomes. He’s a lock in lineups like this due to his extremely high floor and higher ceiling. At his $18,000 Captain price, it does however make perfect sense to lock him as a Flex. The Giants' defense has been rather solid against opposing quarterbacks and their struggle has come more from defending the run. Expect Kansas City to find some sort of run game identity tonight as that’s all the media has been able to talk about in the past weeks. Mahomes will still be a lock to hit 20+ DraftKings points so don’t leave him out of your lineup.

Running Backs 

Devontae Booker ($8,200)

Since taking over for injured Saquon Barkley, Booker has scored ten or more points in every game. In matchups against the Carolina Panthers (14.8), Los Angeles Rams (10.9), and Dallas Cowboys (20.8) that’s a pretty impressive feat. He’s been a threat in both the run and the passing game which makes him a great candidate to exploit a defense that has allowed 28 DraftKings points to running backs this season. Kansas City ranks as the fourth worst in opponent yards per rush at 4.7 and allows over 50 receiving yards to the position per game as well.

Elijhaa Penny ($600)

Despite being the team’s fullback, Penny has overtaken the RB2 duties to spell Devontae Booker. Last week he saw nine touches on 22 snaps and three touches with a touchdown on 15 touches in Week 7. Fullbacks typically see attention from the opposing team’s linebacker and the Chiefs will be without starter Anthony Hitchens. Additionally to his work on the ground, Penny saw two targets in Week 7. His floor is low but there is potential he vultures a touchdown in the red zone against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.4). That would produce enough to reason with the extremely low cost. 

Darrel Williams ($9,000 or $13,500)

Seeing between 64-72% of team snaps in the past two weeks gives plenty of reason to plug in the Chiefs RB1. With performances of 8.0 and 23.9 DraftKings points in these appearances, there is plenty of variability of potential outcomes. In Week Six, Kansas City established the run against Washington allotting 21 touts to Williams with four additional targets leading to three receptions. On the 24 total touches, Williams produced 99 yards and two touchdowns. In last week’s contest against Tennessee, they were forced to abandon the run early and only looked Darrel’s way nine times for 50 scoreless yards. There’s a sense in making this low-cost option a Captain or Flex in your lineup tonight.

Jerick McKinnon ($1,000)

Possessing the ability to break for a big game could possibly be more a part of McKinnon’s past than his future, but after seeing between 22 and 27 snaps in the past three weeks there may be a reason to slot him in a Flex spot. At his extremely low cost, you can fit both quarterbacks and possibly even Captain one. He’s seen ten targets for 35 scoreless yards in the three previous contests. While the Giants have been good against opposing running backs this success hasn’t extended to the red zone where they’ve allowed the fifth-most points to RBs (7.8).

Wide Receivers

Sterling Shepard ($7,000 or $10,500)

Nearly every perimeter weapon is injured right now and Shepard is a part of that list. Dealing with a hamstring issue since Week Three has forced him to miss two games and be questionable again tonight. When he’s played, he’s been productive with outputs of 17.6, 17.5, and 27.3 in the three full games he’s played this year. The matchup is incredibly leaky and Shepard, if healthy, has the skill set to lock at either a Captain or a Flex position.

Kadarius Toney ($6,800)

Another injured weapon with the capability for a massive outing. Toney is listed as questionable with an ankle and figures to be a game-time decision. After a 32.6 DK points performance in Week Five, Toney cooled off the following week to a three-catch 36 yards on the opening drive before exiting with an injury. He feels like more of a dart throw due to health but a dart throw that could make your lineup a winner. Proceed with caution.

Darius Slayton ($6,400)

Enters tonight’s showdown with the most targets and receiving yards in the previous week and the only fully healthy option for Daniel Jones. Expect the run game to be a large part of the Giant’s plans tonight, but with the highest snap share (61%) last week makes a solid lock in a Flex spot. 

Dante Pettis ($5,000 or $7,500)

The surprise of the last two weeks has been the former 49er wide receiver averaging a team leading 55.1% of snaps. Pettis looks to be a legitimate option in the New York passing attack with 16 targets in the last two games while producing 9.8 and 15.5 points. He’s seeing the 14th highest target rate over this span and has seen 20% of the teams targets in the red zone. At a super low cost, fit Pettis into your Flex or Captain spot to make room for pricer plays. 

Tyreek Hill ($11,000)

Injuries are potentially slowing down Hill as he’s played through a quadriceps issue over the past three weeks. This has limited him to zero receptions of over 20 yards, something he’s typically producing on the regular. His matchup, James Bradberry, has been quite solid this year and has yet to allow 100-yard performance. Hill figures to be heavily targeted but with a high of 76-yards in the last three games might have a lower ceiling that we’re typically used to and feels like more of a Flex option in the showdown. 

Mecole Hardman ($4,800)

With a floor of 5.8 (last week) and a ceiling of 16.5 (Week 5), Hardman feels like a hard man to keep out of your roster at this price point. He’s playing above 60% of snaps in the last three weeks and sees at least 5 targets over this span. While he hasn’t produced a breakout performance most have anticipated, he has a role in this offense and should see limited attention from the Giants.

Byron Pringle ($2,200)

Pringle may present more upside at a lower cost than Hardman and has had a growing role in the past two weeks. With outputs of 12.3, 8.5 and 8.1 in the last three weeks he has shown consistency. Again, most of the defensive attention is placed on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, so Pringle is left with one-on-one opportunities that if he wins, Mahomes is likely to find him.

Demarcus Robinson ($800)

If looking to play low-cost options to fill out your roster with the bigger names, Robinson makes a great play. He sees over 70% of the snaps in the last three games and that trend extends over the season with an average of 51 snaps per game. He isn’t targeted a whole lot which leaves him with a lower floor than the other options but at $800 can easily cover his cost with a three-catch 46 yard and a touchdown performance just a week ago. 

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($10,600 or $15,900)

With the most consistent floor on the Chiefs roster, lock Kelce in as a Flex or Captain. In the past three weeks, he’s scored between 13.5 and 17.9 points while seeing over ten targets in each. His performances haven’t been stellar with such a high target rate but this Giants defense has allowed the third-most touchdowns to the position this year. Tonight they will be without Jabril Peppers who would’ve been a prime candidate to line up against the Chiefs star tight end. 

Evan Engram ($5,400)

The Kansas City Chiefs are the second-worst team in opposing points allowed to tight ends with 18.3 DraftKings points per game. No team has allowed more yards to the position this season. To suggest playing Engram in any fantasy contest would be painful, but with the injuries to other options and the lack of targets going Kyle Rudolph’s way, it’s hard to argue against the play. Averaging 7.2 DK points per game over five showings almost covers his price point and if he can sneak in the endzone he’ll make a low-owned option that gives leverage to the field.

Defenses

New York Giants ($2,800)

If the Giants can continue their performance from last week where they held Carolina to 3 points and scored 17 DraftKings points by way of six sacks and both a fumble and an interception. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes have not protected the ball well this year with a turnover ratio of -10 so far. A leaky offensive line could also present the opportunity for a team with 16 sacks so far this year to add to that total. While it’s likely Kansas City puts up a few scores, the probability for turnover makes this a reasonable play.

Kansas City Chiefs ($3,400)

Somehow the most expensive defense on the slate, there appears to be little reason to play a defense that is struggling mightily and now without play-caller and starting middle linebacker Anthony Hitchens. This makes rookie Nick Bolton the signal-caller on the field and creates more responsibility for the secondary. 

The Bottom Line

The spread feels slightly high for a Kansas City Chiefs team that feels slightly out of wack with a quarterback that is loose with the ball and a defense that can’t stop a nosebleed. The New York Giants have looked alright against struggling offenses but got throttled by the Cowboys and Rams. If Kansas City can figure out how to protect the ball this one could get ugly, but if Mahomes struggles with turnovers for the fourth straight week expect the Giants to keep this one closer than expected. Daniel Jones has been a legitimate dual-threat this year as the Giants leading rusher with 229 yards and two touchdowns.