NFL Week 7 MNF DraftKings Showdown Breakdown

Welcome to Week Seven of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific.

Game Breakdown

Following their Week 6 bye, the New Orleans Saints travel to the West Coast to take on the Seattle Seahawks in a Monday Night showdown featuring two teams who have had an up-and-down start of the season. Seattle enters their second game without starting quarterback, Russell Wilson, having lost the first contest in overtime to the Pittsburgh Steelers. No team in the NFL has allowed more yards per game (447.0) than the Seattle defense but will face a Saints offense that has the third-worst offensive production in terms of yardage (306.6). Neither team has been very pass-happy to this point, New Orleans has fewer pass attempts than any other team with just 24 attempts per game, while Seattle is third from the bottom with only 29 attempts per game. Both teams have been efficient when throwing, however, with QB ratings sitting at 103.6 and 116.0, respectively. This matchup holds the lowest game total at 41.5, favoring the Saints by 4 points. Wind projects to be an issue, as the current forecast predicts wind speeds of up to 24 mph, with temperatures around 55° and a 25% chance of precipitation.

Team Breakdown

New Orleans took full advantage of the earliest bye week on a schedule. Several starters or prominent role players were injured entering Week 6 and they’re expecting the return from six crucial pieces. Starting upfront for the Saints offense, both their starting left tackle, Terron Armstead, and starting center, Erik McCoy, returned to practice this week. On defense they expect Marcus Davenport, starting defensive end, who hasn’t seen the field since sacking Aaron Rodgers on Week 1, and starting linebacker Kwon Alexander to return. Additionally, the Saints are hoping to get back Tre’Quan Smith to boost their mundane pass game and kicker Will Lutz to give them consistency in the kicking game. Defensively, the Saints have controlled the flow of games with the third-best total DVOA and the second-best rush DVOA. I expect the return of two of their top defensive players to only yield better results in tonight’s contest.

Moving our attention to the home team, Seattle found a formula that worked offensively last week as Alex Collins became the first 100-yard rusher since late 2019. This strategy may produce less of a positive return tonight, as New Orleans has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (79) this season. That will put additional pressure on Geno Smith to move the chains and utilize the Seahawks' potent wide receiver duo of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. The real issue in Seattle lies on their defensive unit, which allowed over 450 total yards of offense from Week 2 to Week 5. This four-game span tied an NFL record that no coach desires to own. There was a slight improvement last week against the Steelers, having only surrendered 345 yards of offense but failing to register a sack. With Alvin Kamara on the opposing side tonight, expect the Seahawks to allow their seventh straight opponent to run for 100 yards.

Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston ($11,800)

Weather alone could present an argument to avoid either quarterback in this showdown, but Winston doesn’t have the worst matchup tonight. Seattle has given up the 13th most DraftKings points to the quarterback position this year, allowing 306.2 (6th most) pass yards per game. Entering Week 7 with a 12:3 touchdown to interception ratio, and seeing his highest pass total of the year in Week 5 (30), Winston and the Saints offense could look to pepper Kamara with targets which could allow for a solid outing for the Saints quarterback. Seattle has allowed the third-most pass yards to running backs this season at 60 yards on 6.5 receptions per game. Avoiding a quarterback Captain feels like a productive strategy, but if you have the additional cash to fit Winston in your lineup, it could pay off.

Geno Smith ($9,400)

The Saints present a stingy matchup for the quarterback position, allowing only 17 (fourth-least) DraftKings points per game. Quarterbacks have only thrown one touchdown per game while turning over an NFL-leading 1.8 interceptions per contest. This makes the Saints and the Buffalo Bills the only defenses that have forced more interceptions per game than touchdowns allowed, an impressive feat in the current landscape of the NFL. At a cost that would prohibit you from adding more opportunistic options in tonight's Showdown, look to fade the Seahawks quarterback.

Running Backs 

Alvin Kamara ($12,800)

In a tremendous matchup against a struggling defensive front, you’d be remiss not locking Kamara into your lineup. No other running back saw more than seven snaps last week, allotting Kamara over 84% of the snap share for the fourth straight week. Touching more on the opportunity for the Saints lead back, Kamara ranks third in the NFL in opportunity share (81.1%), fifth in carries (18.8 per game), while contributing heavily in the passing game as the Saints leading receiver and holding the second-highest route participation (70.0%) and target share (19.1%) at his position. Additionally, Taysom Hill is ruled out of this contest, allowing more goal-line and short-yardage opportunities to be handed to Kamara. With so much opportunity going his way, this exploitable matchup with poor weather conditions funnels even more attention to the run game. Feel confident locking in Kamara at the Captain or Flex position on your roster.

Alex Collins ($7,400)

Coming off a 20 carry, 101-yard rushing, and a touchdown performance, Collins looks to lead the Seattle backfield again in another primetime game for the Seahawks. His limitations in the passing game as well as the return of former first-rounder Rashaad Penny could provide a smaller workload for the former Razorback. Collins also enters tonight having dealt with a hip and a glute injury but hasn’t appeared on the injury report since early in the week. In a game with restricting conditions, expect the running backs to be heavily involved.

DeeJay Dallas ($5,200)

As more of the pass-catching option out of the backfield, Dallas could see his role in tonight’s game heavily reduced with the return of Rashaad Penny. While his snap share has grown from 1 to 14 to 22, respectively, in the past three weeks, New Orleans presents a difficult matchup for running backs. The Saints defense has allowed the sixth least DraftKings points to the position at only 20.5 per game so far this season. At a higher price point, the former Miami Hurricane feels like a play to fade in favor of cheaper, higher-yielding options at the position.

Rashaad Penny ($2,600)

Depending on the status of Alex Collins, Penny’s return from injured reserve could offer a tremendous value option at such a low price point. Everything from Pete Carroll’s mouth has provided confidence that Penny will be returning for tonight’s contest. With Collins dealing with a banged-up hip and glue from last Sunday Night’s showdown, Penny could fall into a decent workload. Over his career, Penny has averaged 5.1 yards per carry on 163 attempts and also been serviceable in the passing game with 9.3 yards per reception on 17 receptions. The production has never been the issue with Penny, staying healthy has limited him the past two seasons but with Carroll appearing optimistic for his return, this looks like a tremendous opportunity at such a low cost.

Travis Homer ($2,400)

Seeing his snap count diminish in four consecutive weeks is not a good sign for Homer. Again, the return of Penny could push Homer completely out of the offensive rotation and leave him strictly as a special teams player. In a very limited sample, Homer has been rather efficient. On 11 touches this season he is averaging 12.64 yards per touch, but with only 11 touches on the season, it's hard to project much work to go his way. After a 54 yard performance last week on three touches, an argument could be made for Homer as a dart throw, but do so with a decent dose of caution. 

Wide Receivers

Marquez Callaway ($8,600)

With sporadic usage through the first five weeks of the season, Callaway is coming off his best performance of the year, posting four receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown Week 5 against the Washington Redskins. In the past three games, Callaway has averaged 16 fantasy points per contest and looks to be building a rapport with Winston. As a big body receiver (6’2, 204lbs), the former Tennessee Volunteer presents a matchup problem for the Seahawks who don’t currently roster a cornerback over 5’11. Trailing Kamara in targets by only one, Callaway should fall into solid opportunity tonight with Deonte Harris out and Tre’Quan Smith returning for the first time this season.

Tre’Quan Smith ($4,800)

Returning from a hamstring injury for the first time this season, the former UCF speedster will look to boost a passing attack that has struggled for contribution from the wide receiver position. As another big body (6’2, 210lbs), Smith presents a potential matchup problem for a small Seattle secondary. In a game predicting weathery conditions, size advantage could play a key factor in the passing game. Seattle has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to the position this season at 45.8 per game. As one of the cheaper options for a player who predicts to have a role, Smith makes for a nice play to add to your roster.

DK Metcalf ($10,000)

Seeing seven targets from Geno Smith in his first start this season is a promising sign. However, he was only able to produce 11.8 DraftKings points with that opportunity. The Seahawks pass attack definitely experienced a hit without Russell Wilson at the helm and now Metcalf figures to face Marshon Lattimore for most of tonight’s game. It’s not a great matchup but one that we saw back in 2019. Metcalf caught two of his six targets for 67 scoreless yards with 54 of these yards coming on a bomb before the end of the first half. Chalk this matchup up to Lattimore and look to fade the expensive Seahawks receiver for his counterpart Lockett.

Tyler Lockett ($9,000)

Posting an abysmal catch rate of 29 percent in his first full game with Geno Smith at quarterback, Lockett looks to have an opportunity to bounce back in a game where weather figures to limit the deep passing options. Lockett excels as an underneath option who racks up yards after the catch and this game feels like a formula for that to be where the Seahawks look to funnel the ball. Seattle has already allowed 18 sacks this season and with the Saints getting their best pass rusher back look for quick passing to allow Lockett to exploit a New Orleans defense that has allowed 40.8 (11th most) DraftKings points to the wide receiver position this year.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson ($2,200)

Used almost exclusively as a red zone option, Johnson has secured all three of his red zone targets for touchdowns. He has yet to see more than 41% snap share while posting 8, 14, 6 snaps in the last three games respectively. There’s a lot of volatility putting Johnson into your lineup, but there’s also a feeling he could fall upon some goalline opportunities tonight. He makes a solid dart throw at such a low cost, but at only 8.4 routes run per game look to fade him in favor of the other, cheaper tight end on the Saint’s roster.

Adam Trautman ($1,800)

There should be some interest in targeting a tight end in tonight's contest given the weather conditions. However, projecting which tight end to select could present some difficulty. For the New Orleans Saints, Adam Trautman has been the option as of late, posting inconsistent usage through the first five games but never seeing less than 52% snap share and posting over 82% snap share in three games. Trautman has only seen ten targets on the season but caught two of two for 43 scoreless yards in the Saints' last game. At ten routes run per game, there is some opportunity available for Trautman tonight.

Gerald Everett ($4,400)

Returning for his second game since an absence for COVID-19, Everett saw slightly fewer snaps than Will Dissly last week. Both saw two targets, but Everett turned his two receptions into 40 scoreless yards, while Dissly caught two for eight yards and a goal-line score. The Saints have ranked in the top ten in terms of DraftKings points allowed to the tight end position this year (9.4) and have yet to surrender a score to the position. With yards looking like the premium in today’s matchup, favor Everett for Dissly if looking to roster a Seahawks tight end.

Will Dissly ($3,400)

Running 13.2 routes per game, as opposed to Everett’s 19.0 routes run per game, Dissly enters Monday Night with slightly less opportunity, despite seeing more snaps than his tight end counterpart. The advantage he does hold lies in the red zone where Dissly has seen a 15.4% target share to Everett’s 14.3%. Each poses a legitimate dart throw option at a low price point given the slight slate of playmakers in tonight’s game.

Defenses

New Orleans ($5,800)

As the more expensive option when looking at defenses, the Saints make a realistic option at the Captain or Flex slot in your lineup. They have allowed the fourth least points to opposing quarterbacks, eighth least to opposing running backs, and ninth least to opposing tight ends. Tonight the weather conditions favor a defensive battle as winds over 20mph have a history of limiting offensive production. The Seahawks are last in the NFL in time of possession at 25.5 minutes per game and this presents a golden opportunity for New Orleans if Seattle is incapable of staying on the field.

Seattle Seahawks ($2,800)

Could not find a reason to play the Seahawks defense tonight. To say they have struggled to start the season would be an understatement as they’ve posted an average of 3.7 DraftKings points per game and have never posted more than 6.0 points. The weather tonight could present an opportunity to keep the score low, but the inability to stop the run is now matched with facing one of the most lethal backfield options in the NFL today. Stated above is the fact that the Seahawks offense has struggled more than any other offense to stay on the field which could be attributed to the fifth-worst third-down conversion rate (32.8%) in the NFL.

The Bottom Line

A matchup of strengths and weaknesses looks to favor the New Orleans Saints tonight. New Orleans is tenth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (125.8), while Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (140.8). Each team has struggled to commit to the passing game, a trend that is sure to continue given the windy conditions tonight. Both defenses rank in the top ten of third-down conversion: Saints at 35.2% (seventh-best) and Seahawks at 36.7% (ninth-best). As the game total continues to be pushed lower and a spread that has been reduced to 4.0 points in favor of New Orleans we could be looking at a competitive low-scoring affair on Monday Night.