Week 7: Thinking RBs

Derrick Henry (9,200)

He sits atop the throne of DK pricing again this week, which should come as no surprise. His salary only bumped up a mere 200 after a 140 yard, 3 touchdown game! He continues to put together an outlier season as he is currently on pace to break the all-time record for carries in a season. King Henry has 162 carries through 6 games, which is 51 more than the 2nd closest RB, Joe Mixon. 51 more carries! That 162 carries is 95% of all Titans handoffs. Steamrolling those totes into 783 rushing yards which equals 50% more(!) than the 2nd and 3rd top RBs in rush yards (Chubb/Zeke, 523, 521 respectively). 4.8 YPC is good for .8 more YPC than the expectation of 4. His total of 10 rushing TDs is also twice as many as the next closest players in the league (6 tied with 5, including Sam Darnold lol). 26 carries came inside the red zone (over 4 a game) and 7 inside the green zone for over 1 a game and rumbled 2 scores in from outside the 20 and they have both been from 50+. What more can we ask for? Tennessee is committed to handing him the ball in all situations: Titans run-rate vs. NFL average: Trailing by four or more: +6% Within three: +8% Leading by four or more: +4%. Target share, you ask? 9.25% is not bad, catching 16 of 18 passes for 138 yards good for 29.8 PPR points or 5 per game where he has mostly been closer to 1 or 2 per game in previous years. The Titans do get a home game this week although as 5 point underdogs in a high total (57) matchup vs Kansas City and their bottom 3 in the league ranked run defense. Fade Henry at your own risk.

Darrell Henderson, Jr (6,600)

He is in a smash spot this week at home as heavy 17 point favorites vs the lowly Lions. DK has adjusted his salary up 10% from last week where he was only 6k. While it has finally come up after being at or below 6k all year, despite the bellcow workloads he has seen, it may not have come up enough potentially due to leaving week 2 early with the injury. Henderson has scored no less than 15.7 DK points in any game this year, even including the game he was sidelined without finishing. In the 5 games he's played, Henderson has been in on 80% of snaps and handled 81 carries for 372 yards and 4 scores. 15 carries inside the 20 (3 a game) and 5 inside the 5 for 1 per game, converting 3 of 5 $ zone for TDs. 4.6 YPC is .6 fantasy points above expectation for each carry. The 10% target share is staying active in the passing game, catching 12 of 16 for 119 and one score coming last week is good for 29.9 PPR points or 6 DK points per game as a receiver. The 17 point favorite label could mean a handful of extra carries and the 33 point team total shows plenty of room for TD upside. All signs point to Henderson being a high player in cash, meaning you might want to have him. 

Leonard Fournette (6,400)

Salary is at a season-high, up 500 from last week where he scored 30.7 DK points on 22 carries and 6 receptions. The 28 opportunities are a season-high, and it seems that Ronald Jones and his no more than 6 opps in each of the last 4 games, is not going to eat into Uncle Lens workload. Fournette has seen at least 5 targets in each of the last 3 weeks and 20+ carries in 2 of the last 3. In that stretch of the last 3 weeks, Lenny has played over 70% snaps and has 72% of RB carries (54 total, 18 per game) for TB. I will continue to focus on the past 3 weeks here for his rushing splits, as the trend has ramped up in volume from the first 3. 13 red zone and all 5 TB green zone attempts have led to 3 end zone trips, his only 3 scores on the year. 240 yards on the 54 carries is good for 4.45 YPC, or .45 fpts above expectation per carry. Passing game work on the entire year includes an 11.5% target share, catching 25 of 30 for 212 yards and no scores. 46.3 PPR points is good for just slightly under 8 DK points per game as a receiver which is good for top 7 in the league (if we exclude Cordarrelle Patterson who is 1st) and just ahead of Alvin Kamara. I was not in on Fournette at the start of the year but these totals can not be ignored. Tampa is 12 pt favorites at home vs Chicago checking all the boxes making Len a strong play in all formats this week.

Devontae Booker (5.500)

Was only 100 less in salary last week, and while the efficiency numbers didn't look great, he was facing a top rush defense in the Rams. He does get Carolina this week and if you look at DK, they do have that red 1st next to their name in opponent player rank. Yet you look into CAR and see that the first 3 weeks they played the Texans, Jets, and Saints who only gave Alvin Kamara 8 carries. The past 3 weeks they have been gashed by MIN, PHI and DAL making them the actual last in the league rush defense over the past 3 weeks. This could be a decent get right spot for Booker's efficiency, as he is seeing 80% of snaps and attempts the past 2 weeks since Barkley went down and has scored once inside the green zone on 3 attempts. In that same stretch he has caught 7 of 8 passes for 44 yards and one score. Good for 17.4 PPR points or just over 8.5 per game in the last 2; these numbers can be helpful on DK. The GIants are underdogs at home which doesn't make Booker nearly as strong a play as the first 2 borderline cash locks on this slate, but if you are looking to save a bit of salary he should be penciled in for the volume once again. 

Situations to monitor

Antonio Gibson practiced in a limited fashion the past 2 days with his lingering shin injury and should look to be a go on Sunday. Gibson was only in on 40% of snaps last week and if you think that is a trend that may continue, perhaps a look for JD McKissick (5,000) may be in order. McKissick played the other 60% of snaps and caught 8 of 10 targets for 65 yards and a 25% target share, good for 14.5 DK points. With Washington 8 point dogs on the road to GB, JD could be in line for another high reception game as a salary-saving potentially low-owned tournament option that can help you fit in another high-priced stud elsewhere in your lineup.

Tournament Pivots:

This week if you're looking to get off the RB chalk of Henry and Henderson, Aaron Jones (7,500) is the only healthy RB on the slate in between the price range of the 2. Jones has caught 21 of 23 targets (13% share) in 6 games for 166 yards and 4 TDs. 61.6 DK PPR points is over 10 per game and we know as we have seen in week 2, Jones has a 4 TD game upside in his bag. This would be more of an efficiency play, which will lead him to be lower owned, as Jones only handles 60% of the carries for GB and only 2 handoffs inside the 5 to date. It's a lower probability play than the chalk, but if it hits it is worth a lot of relative value.

Joe Mixon (6,500) is 2nd in the league in carries this year (as I mentioned) with 111. Mixon has turned those carries into 480 yards for a .3 YPC over expectation and 3 scores all coming inside the 20. In fact, Mixon only has 6 red zone carries and 3 green zone carries this year. As a receiver catching 13 of 16 balls for 90 yards and one score. 28.0 DK PPR points is good for just under 5 per game, which is fine but not great. All this looks solid but not great, coming in as a TD dog on the road vs Baltimore which will keep his ownership % low enough to be a solid pivot, and the raw number of carries relative to others increases his chances of taking runs to the box.

Finally, let's look at Cordarrelle Patteron (6,300). Patterson has only handled 35% of RB Carries for the Falcons on the year, but in week 5 that moved up to 50% and 14 total carries, a career-high. He does have 1 rushing TD, but it is the receiving numbers that make CPat an interesting tournament play. CPAT has 15% target share on the year, catching 25 of 31 passes for 295 yards and 4 TD. This is good for 78.5 DK PPR points (which I mentioned is 1st among all RB eligible players)  in 5 games which is right about 16 points per game just as a receiver. We know 3 of his scores came in one game, Week 4 against the Washington Football Team. This is the kind of spike week upside that can make for a very interesting tournament with low expected ownership. The snap percentage of only 40% on the year tells us this production may not be sustainable, at least not enough for cash games, yet in week 5 that number came up to 60%. With his recent production, he may be in line to see that snap % continue to trend upward, making him a fine pivot in tournaments this week.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the games!