NFL Week 6 MNF DraftKings Showdown Breakdown

Welcome to Week Six of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. Here is our inaugural Week Six NFL DraftKings MNF Showdown analysis.

Game Breakdown

Buffalo travels back to Tennessee to face the Titans for the first time since Derrick Henry and company stiff-armed the Bills into oblivion last year en route to a 42-16 demolition and Buffalo’s first loss of 2020. This year the Bills enter Week 6 with the highest-scoring offense and the toughest defense, while the Titans have struggled defensively and haven’t fully found their groove offensively. Most of these struggles can be attributed to new coordinators on both sides of the ball, shaky protection upfront as well as 16 players on injured reserve. However, Tennessee has won three of their last four and have gotten back to pounding the rock with Derrick Henry, who again leads the NFL in rushing. This contest carries the highest game total on Week 6’s slate at 53.0 while favoring the Bills by 6.0 points.

Team Breakdown

As stated above, this Buffalo offense leads the NFL in points per game (34.4) and stack this high-octane offense with the top ranked defense in yards (266.6) and points (12.8) per game resulting in the top spot of all DVOA rankings. This has helped them yield fewer DraftKings points to WRs (26.4), RBs (13.2) or QBs (12.8) than any team this season.

Meanwhile, Tennessee ranks third in rushing yards (167.8) and tenth in points (26.4) but have allowed the most sacks in the league (20) and now faces a Buffalo defense with the fifth-most sacks per game (2.8). Expect the Titans to force-feed Henry as much as the game allows, and potentially even beyond what the game allows, as throwing hasn’t gone much in their favor with Tannehill ranking as the 27th quarterback according to Football Outsiders QB DVOA rankings with a rating of -18.4%. While the Titans have struggled more than some expected after acquiring Julio Jones, their defense has been their true achilles heel. They enter Monday’s matchup ranking 27th in overall and run DVOA while boasting the 25th ranking in pass DVOA. No team in the NFL has allowed more yards (224.4) or DraftKings points (48.6) to WRs than the Titans this season and now they will be without top corner, Kristian Fulton, for this contest leaving Janoris “Jackrabbit” Jenkins and a makeshift secondary to stop Josh Allen and his plethora of weapons.

Positional Breakdown

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($12,800)

In such a juicy matchup it’s hard to overlook the highest projected value on the showdown. His ownership is high at 47.9% but lands him as only the fourth most owned player of the night. Personally, I’m in favor of playing him in a flex position as Tennessee has allowed the ninth least rushing yards to quarterbacks (12.4) which could lower his ceiling. If the Titans defense is as poor as the rankings project, this game could blowout early and lead to a much higher run total than Buffalo has elected to use in the previous five weeks. I’d lock in Allen for sure but hesitate to place him as your Captain as there could be better options.

Ryan Tannehill ($9,800)

Ranking as the second-highest value on the slate, this may seem like a surprise pick after the narrative created above. However, despite being the stingiest defense in the league to this point, Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most rushing attempts to QBs (5 per game) and Tannehill has the ability to make hay with his legs averaging 7.6 yards per carry on 17 attempts this year. This along with the fact he is extremely under-owned at only 20.1%, he becomes an intriguing Caption play if looking to gain leverage on the field. His lower cost also enables you to fill your roster with some opportune offensive players and easily fit the opposing gunslinger into your lineup.

Running Backs 

Zack Moss ($7,000)

Seeing an average of 42 snaps over the last three weeks, good for 62% of snaps over that time frame, has allowed Moss to emerge as a legitimate dual threat backfield option for the potent Bills attack. Since seeing a healthy scratch Week 1 due to health concerns, Moss has topped double-digit DraftKings points in four straight appearances and looks to have cemented himself as the lead option out of the backfield for Buffalo. Tennessee has been mediocre but not horrible against RBs, allowing 23.1 DK points and one rushing touchdown per game to the position. With his role increasing by the week he feels like the safer play than his backfield counterpart.

Devin Singletary ($4,600)

After only seeing 26% of snaps in Week 5, it seems as if Singletary has ceded most of the backfield role to sophomore Zack Moss. His limited pass-catching ability really puts a stranglehold on his ceiling, but if you’re looking for a dart throw and feel that the Bills are going to run away with this one, Singletary might be the option. He’s been the more efficient runner on the ground and has seen a majority of the carries when the Bills have the lead. At such a low cost he comes in at only 29.4% ownership offering leverage and value. 

Derrick Henry ($11,400)

Averaging 29.3 DraftKings points per game, while seeing 31.3 carries per game, Henry enters this matchup with a ton of opportunity. Buffalo has been stout against the run, but part of that has been that they play most games with a lead. As a defense, they’ve allowed only 3.7 yards per attempt (4th in the NFL) but are coming off a game where they allowed 5.2 yards per attempt to the Chiefs. On 31 carries that yields between 114.7 and 161.2 yards for Henry. However, the Bills have yet to surrender a touchdown to a running back, capping the ceiling and thought of putting Henry as your Captain who enters Monday as the highest owned player at 57.5%.

Jeremy McNichols ($3,000)

Another backfield dart throw candidate is Henry’s pass-catching complement, Jeremy McNichols. At only 9.1% ownership, McNichols offers a leverage play who could see solid involvement if this game gets away from Tennessee early. Despite not allowing a rushing touchdown to an RB this year, Buffalo did allow a 73-yard receiving touchdown to Antonio Gibson in Week 3. McNichols has seen action in games where the Titans trail and in Week 4 saw 12 targets for eight receptions and 74 yards.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($9,600)

Seeing double-digit targets in three of five games thus far this year has allowed Diggs to rank top 20 in the NFL in receiving yards (374). But with so many options for Allen to choose from it can be hard to predict his breakout games, especially with a solid matchup if Janoris Jenkins ends up on him. It’s wise, if possible, to fit him into your lineup but not sure that it’s something you need to force with other great (and cheaper) options on the board. He makes for a solid play as Allen’s number one option but would urge you to keep him out of the Captain spot at a higher price and equally high ownership - 52.6% (2nd overall). 

Emmanuel Sanders ($8,600)

Despite seeing 16 fewer targets than Diggs, Sanders has more fantasy points on the season thanks to four touchdowns in five games. He has two multi-score performances and ranks as a better breakout candidate since he will align in the slot more, therefore avoiding Tennessee's best cover corner. He holds the fifth-highest average target distance (16.1) and now faces a Titan defense that has allowed the fifth-highest average yard per attempt (7.9) this year. At a 36.7% ownership, Sanders is a valuable option in the Captain or Flex position.

Cole Beasley ($5,400)

When speaking of slot opportunities in Monday’s showdown, look no further than Cole Beasley. With the second-highest slot rate in the NFL (81.9%), Beasley enters Monday’s showdown with a tremendous opportunity for a breakout. His ownership is a little higher than you may expect at 34.4%, but he makes for another tremendous play in the Captain or Flex spot. Dawson Knox's emergence has knocked some of Beasley’s opportunities down in past weeks but this feels like the type of matchup where his shiftiness makes hay against an incredibly vulnerable secondary.

A.J. Brown ($7,800)

Off to a rough start to begin the 2021 season, Brown has only averaged 7.3 DraftKings points in four appearances and was a late addition to the injury report (illness). There has been little insight as to the nature of this illness, so if you’re looking to roster the top wide receiver for the Titans make sure to stay on top of any updates regarding his status. He enters Week 6 with ten receptions on 25 targets for a measly 130 yards with his lone touchdown coming back in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals.

Julio Jones ($6,600)

Equally disappointing for the Titans has been the newly acquired veteran-to-be Hall of Fame counterpart Julio Jones. Recently struggling with a hamstring injury, Jones returned to practice Thursday and appears to be all systems go ahead of this Monday Night showdown. In three games this year Jones has fared slightly better than Brown with 11.8 DK points with 12 receptions on 18 targets for 204 scoreless yards. He makes a sneaky, but risky Captain play at low cost and ownership (22.1%) for one of the top wide receiver talents in NFL history. 

Marcus Johnson ($2,100)

After missing the first four weeks due to an undisclosed injury, Johnson stepped in and had a solid Week 5 as a potential dart throw if Brown were to be ruled out. In only one appearance this season Johnson has three receptions on five targets for 52 scoreless yards and comes into this showdown with 10.1% ownership. He has solid size (6’1, 204lbs) and speed (4.39 forty on Pro Day), offering a precarious option if looking to fill out a high-cost roster. 

Chester Rogers ($4,400)

The Titans main slot WR has seen the ninth highest percentage of snaps from inside at 79.3% and will face a tough matchup in a Bills secondary that has several lockdown options. In the team’s last practice before Monday’s contest he appeared as a limited participant due to a groin injury, so be sure to keep up with his status if looking to add him to your roster. Rogers has been the most available and consistent receiver for the Titans with 13 receptions on 20 targets for 179 yards in five appearances. His lone touchdown came back in Week 3 on one of his two redzone targets this season.

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox ($7,600)

Scorching hot with five touchdowns in the last four games, Knox is drawing a lot of attention in the fantasy world entering Monday Night. He enters this contest as the third-highest owned player (50.5%) and with his high cost and ownership, he feels heavily like a fade option. While Tennessee has struggled mightily on all phases of defense, defending tight ends has been the lone strong point, allowing the fourth-fewest DK points to the position at a mere 5.9 points per game. Amani Hooker and Kevin Byard start at safety and are two elite talents at the position. With so many other weak points on the defense and able pass catchers on the offensive side, look to fade Knox in favor of another Bills weapon.

Anthony Firkser ($4,000)

In his three appearances this season, Firkser has been rather consistent with three catches in every contest yielding 75 scoreless yards. The Bills are middle of the road in terms of points allowed to the position at 10.1 per game, landing them at 18th overall in the NFL. He comes in at 28.4% ownership in a game where the Titans will look to pound the rock, opening up the play-action pass which allows the tight end to be a checkdown player or middle of the field option for Tannehill. 

Defenses

Buffalo Bills ($4,800)

The top defense in nearly every statistical and analytical category this season, the Bills make a really strong option against a Titans offense that has struggled to begin the season. As mentioned above, Buffalo sacks the quarterback at the fourth-highest rate and Tennessee has allowed more sacks than any other team. Shockingly, only coming in at 24.3% ownership, the Bills D makes a terrific Captain play for owners looking to roster both teams quarterbacks as well as some top offensive weapons.

Tennessee Titans ($3,600)

One of the worst defenses in the NFL now faces one of the top offenses in the league in a high-scoring affair. It’s a poor combination and one I would heavily urge you to avoid being a part of. The Titans have too many injuries and have fared poorly against good competition all year long. While they scored their lone DST touchdown of the season last year on a pick six against Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawerence, this game presents much less opportunity for success.

The Bottom Line

With Tennessee incredibly banged up in all three phases and Buffalo as hot as any team in the NFL, this has the feeling of a potential blowout despite the spread sitting at only -6.0 in favor of the Bills. The Titans will hope that Derrick Henry is able to keep the scorching Bills offense off the field as much as possible. This is a formula that has worked in the past. With Buffalo amid a revenge tour of sorts, defeating Kansas City last week 38-20 in a rematch of the AFC title game and now facing the team that abused them last year for the first loss in the second Tuesday game since 1946, this has the feeling of a game to favor the Bills physically and emotionally. At the same time, it offers the Titans an opportunity to spark a fire that could propel them after a rough start that led to a 3-2 start of the season.