Week 18 SNF DraftKings Showdown: Chargers vs Raiders

Welcome to Week Eighteen of the Add More Funds DraftKings Sunday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, we release a breakdown of the Sunday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

The final game of the NFL’s regular season concludes the inaugural Week 18 in storybook fashion. Sunday Night Football features the AFC West’s Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders, both 9-7 and in contention for the final playoff spot in the AFC. Los Angeles makes the short commute to Las Vegas hoping to spoil the Raiders’ late-season winning streak that has kept their slim playoff hopes alive for three straight weeks. Four of Las Vegas’ starters across the offensive and defensive units remain questionable on the injury list: Josh Jacobs (ribs), Darren Waller (knee), Johnathan Hankins (back), Casey Hayward (ankle) - creating a situation to monitor ahead of lock. The Chargers are relatively healthy in that regard, projecting to be without rotational defensive lineman Joe Gaziano (ankle) and special teamer Joe Reed (undisclosed). Expect the Raiders’ starters to do everything within their power to be out there with so much on the line in this one. Las Vegas’ current three-game win streak has included consecutive wins of four points or less while Los Angeles lost back-to-back games in Week 15 and 16, forcing a must-win Week 17 matchup with Denver. This matchup holds the highest game total (49.0) on the slate with sportsbooks favoring Los Angeles by 4.5-points after opening at 3.0. 

Team Breakdown

Coming off disappointing losses to Kansas City and Houston put pressure on the Chargers heading into last week. They handled the Broncos with ease but now will get a hot Raiders team that has been fighting for their lives since Week 15. Justin Herbert has led this Los Angeles offense to elite status, ranking fourth in total offense (398.8) and passing yards (277.8), and sixth in points (27.6). Their defense has been a major weak spot allowing 26.5 points and 136.7 rushing yards per game while ranking last in third-down rate (49.7). It will be interesting to see how they contain this potent Las Vegas offense that is expecting the return of Darren Waller after a five-game absence. Regardless of how the defense plays, Herbert is sure to exploit a Raiders’ defense that has allowed 25.4 points per game on the season.  

That defensive unit has played much better since they were decimated by the Chiefs in Week 14, allowing 15.7 points over the last three games. Over this span, they’ve held their opponents to 218.7 yards of total offense while their offense has averaged 332 yards of total offense. Maintaining a solid run-pass balance has allowed Las Vegas to dominate the time of possession over this winning streak. Waller’s absence gifted Zay Jones and Foster Moreau the chance to expand their roles while Desean Jackson appeared to build chemistry with Derek Carr. With a handful of playmakers at his arsenal, Carr has passed for the most yards (4,618) of his career but turnovers cause some concern heading into a matchup with a defense that has forced nine takeaways over the last five games. Carr has thrown an interception in four consecutive games and had two last week against Indianapolis. He will have to take care of the ball if the Raiders hope to stay hot heading into the playoffs.

Quarterback

Justin Herbert ($11,400 or $17,100)

The Raiders defense has allowed 15.4 DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks over the past five weeks while allowing 17.8 fantasy points on the year to the position. This ranks as the 11th best defense against the position and paints a potentially difficult matchup for Herbert tonight. After rattling off six straight +20 point performances off in a row, the second-year Oregon alum posted just 17.7 against Denver last week. His running ability creates a higher floor than Derek Carr but Herbert has failed to surpass 20 rushing yards since Week 12. Due to ownership and his cost he fits better in the Flex spot than the Captain. 

Derek Carr ($10,000 or $15,000)

Since Week 10, Los Angeles’ defense has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks (20.8) with nearly all that damage being done through the air. This approach suits Carr’s skillset and gives him a great opportunity to bounce back after five straight disappointing starts from a fantasy perspective. Carr started the season on a scorching hot streak that had him leading the league in passing yards halfway through the year. However, he has only produced two good outings over his last nine starts and the return of his best pass-catcher is sure to help. He offers some of the best upside and leverage on the slate and needs to be locked in nearly all of your lineups. 

Running Backs 

Austin Ekeler ($11,600 or $17,400)

Ekeler has had quite the season amazing double-digits in all but one game this season. He’s averaging 21.4 DraftKings points per game which justifies his slate-leading salary. The Raiders have allowed 28.2 fantasy points to opposing running backs per game and that is the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. They’ve been much improved against rushing production but have allowed six receptions to the position per game over the last three weeks which is an area Ekeler thrives in. His massive ownership makes him one of the worst leverage plays on the slate and projects to be a poor Captain play despite the golden matchup. 

Justin Jackson ($5,200 or $7,800)

Another way to get shares of this optimal running back matchup is to elect for the backup Chargers back who has seen his role increase over the last five weeks. Jackson has 51 rush attempts since Week 13 resulting in 241 yards and two touchdowns while seeing an additional 16 targets over that span totaling 15 receptions for 144 scoreless yards. He makes sense as a cheaper Flex play who should exploit this ideal matchup.

Josh Jacobs ($7,800 or $11,700)

Entering the game with a questionable tag, we must assume that Jacobs is active with the season on the line. The Chargers play a run-funneling defensive scheme that has allowed backs to run for 116.3 yards per game. He has seven straight double-digit outings while averaging 15.9 fantasy points over that period. His involvement in the passing game makes him much more valuable than he was last season and raises his floor significantly. At his low price, he makes one of my favorite plays on the slate and will have shares of him in the Flex and Captain slot. 

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($10,400)

Still one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, Allen has averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game and surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the fourth time in his career. Due to his high ownership and difficult matchup, he enters this one as a fade option by most of the tools. The Raiders allow the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (29.5) and with Casey Hayward having spent multiple seasons with the Chargers feels like an even more difficult situation. 

Mike Williams ($7,200 or $10,800)

The main player popping in the projections for the Chargers is the fourth-year speedster from Clemson. Williams comes in at a fairly reasonable price and while the matchup is not ideal this is an incredibly high-volume passing attack and Williams’ ownership is too low. His leverage score of 6.5 is the second-best on the slate with eight touchdowns and 1,027 receiving yards on the season makes a great candidate to produce 3x value tonight. 

Joshua Palmer ($4,200)

An intriguing cheaper play in this Los Angeles pass game is Palmer who has seen 19 targets over the last four weeks. His role continues to grow and only needs a touchdown to make value at his lower cost. With a touchdown in two of the last four games, this is far from a reach and could pay off if fading the other Chargers’ pass catchers. 

Hunter Renfrow ($8,400 or $12,600)

The third-year route running extraordinaire is having a breakout season by setting career highs in targets (123), receptions (99), yards (1,025), and touchdowns (7). The return of Darren Waller should open up space for Renfrow to operate but could also cut into his target share significantly. Carr has been spreading the ball around a lot this season and against an elite secondary that feels like the case today. He will still force the ball to Renfrow and Waller on crucial downs but this offense is no longer focused around one player. 

Zay Jones ($6,400)

The latest pass-catcher to breakout for Las Vegas has seen an average of 7.7 targets per game since Week 12. Will Waller returning knock his usage back to its normal rates or has Jones become a focal point of this attack? It’s hard to see him maintaining a target share north of 20% but that could potentially be the case if the Chargers allocate a lot of defensive attention to Waller and Renfrow. It’s certainly a play that comes with risk but could be the play that has your lineup at the top of tournaments.

Tight Ends

Jared Cook ($5,600 or $8,400)

Cook’s season average of 8.0 fantasy points per game doesn’t provide enough value at his price but his biggest game of the season came in their Week 4 matchup with Las Vegas. The veteran tight end finished the game with six receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown. On the year, Las Vegas has allowed 938 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns to tight ends which equals the seventh-most fantasy points allowed to the position. Due to his ownership he makes a better leverage play as a Captain than in the Flex.

Darren Waller ($9,200 or $13,800)

Returning from a knee injury he suffered on Thanksgiving Day against the Dallas Cowboys, Waller is expected to be full-go in a matchup that determines the Raiders’ postseason plans. Waller has solidified himself as one of, if not the top, receiving tight ends in football. In his first meeting with Los Angeles, he posted four receptions for 50 yards and a score. It was the last touchdown he has scored this season and with the Chargers allowing more fantasy points to tight ends (17.4) than any other team in the league. The matchup is great but coming off an injury presents plenty of volatility.   

Foster Moreau ($2,600)

Another way to get attention to this ideal tight end matchup is to pay down for the tight end that filled in admirably during Waller’s absence. While he certainly won’t continue to see the 4.7 targets per game he saw without the starting tight end, he remains a touchdown-dependant dart throw that makes sense since the Chargers have allowed a league-worst 12 touchdowns to the tight end position this year.

Defenses

Los Angeles Chargers ($3,800)

Neither team seems likely to struggle to score in tonight’s game but sportsbooks have been wrong before. Each team allows an abundance of points and struggles with third-down defense. They have glaring weaknesses to the running back and tight end positions while being lockdown to opposing wide receivers. The return of Waller creates a difficult offense to slow down as the Raiders were throwing for over 300 yards a night when healthy. 

Las Vegas Raiders ($3,000)

This unit has played some inspired football over the last three weeks but runs into a potent offensive unit in this one. On the year the Raiders have struggled to defend the run which is an area the Chargers have continued to improve in. The addition of Justin Jackson to the backfield gives Los Angeles needed depth while the bevy of pass-catchers should give a physical Las Vegas secondary plenty to contain. 

The Bottom Line

Pittsburgh sneaking a win against Baltimore assured that this matchup carries massive playoff implications. The Raiders are playing the type of football that fulfills the identity of the organization. They’ve dealt with the most drama in the NFL this season and it feels rewarding to see them battling for a playoff seed to close out the season. The Chargers started the season hot but after an up-and-down midseason plus two devastating losses in the last three weeks find themselves clawing for playoff position once again. This game has the feeling of a shootout and hopefully, we get that to close out as interesting of a week as we’ve experienced all season.