Week 18 Saturday DraftKings Showdown: Cowboys vs. Eagles

Welcome to Week Eighteen of the Add More Funds DraftKings Saturday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

Both the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles enter Week 18 with their fate mostly determined but will attempt to generate momentum ahead of the playoffs. The Cowboys (11-5) sit in the four-seed of the NFC standings and could use some help along with a win to push into the two-seed. The Eagles (9-7) are in and won’t finish any higher than the six-seed but have won four in a row and five of the last six. Dallas leads the series 71-54-0 and has won six of the last eight matchups. Philadelphia has won their last two home contests with the Cowboys and will hope to push that streak to three this week. Dallas is leading the NFL in scoring (29.9) and possesses a much-improved defense. The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing (160.4 yards per game) and combine that run-heavy approach with a top-10 defense. Each team has a winning record in the division with the Cowboys looking to go 6-0 while Philadelphia hopes to finish over .500 at 4-2. This matchup features a game total of 43.5 and a spread that opened favoring Dallas by 5.0-points but has dropped to 4.0 recently. Mike McCarthy has coached his Cowboys to 12-4 against the spread on the season while the under is 9-7. Nick Sirianni has the Eagles 8-7-1 against the spread while the over is 9-7 on the year. There certainly is a concern for how much run the key starters will see given the minute impact this outcome holds and creates a difficult showdown to project.

Team Breakdown

The Cowboys stand to gain the most in this game and will surely want to right the ship before the playoffs after losing 22-25 in a hard-fought clash with the Arizona Cardinals last week. They carry several questionable tags for key players ahead of Saturday which forms a situation to monitor. If Micah Parsons, Anthony Brown, and Tyron Smith are unable to go, that significantly benefits Philadelphia. While Dallas has forced 33 takeaways, tied for the lead along with Indianapolis, they’ve lost three consecutive games in which they don’t generate a turnover. In these losses, they’ve allowed over 438 yards of offense and 30 points per game. The Eagles are a run-focused offense that has attempted under 30 passes for three straight weeks. With zero turnovers in three of the last four, Philadelphia has only turned it over twice in that span. The Cowboys' offense will be without Tony Pollard (foot) and Michael Gallup (ACL) while the defense will contend with starting safety Jayron Kearse (hamstring) as well as the aforementioned. These are significant losses and it will be interesting to see how Dallas responds.

The Eagles would love to avenge their earlier matchup with the Cowboys in a 41-21 decimation in Dallas. Jalen Hurts was picked off twice, one returned for a touchdown, and the Eagles weren’t able to get it going offensively. Philadelphia fans should be encouraged by Hurts' recent care for the ball with only one interception over the last three weeks but that certainly will be crucial in this contest. The Eagles league-leading rushing attack has trounced competition over the last 9 weeks averaging 194.6 yards per game. Dallas does allow plenty of yard production (370.4) to opposing offenses regardless of ranking seventh in scoring defense. The Cowboys possess a league-leading opponent third-down rate (32.2) and have been a top-10 red zone defense all year. Philadelphia’s success in those situations will be the determining factor of the game and their 44.8% third-down conversion rate bodes well. 

Quarterback

Dak Prescott ($11,200 or $16,800)

Prescott has put up back-to-back solid performances after three consecutive mediocre outings and appears to have this Cowboys offense headed in the right direction before playoffs. With seven touchdowns and 556 passing yards plus an additional 41 rushing yards, the former fourth-round pick provides a solid floor with a decent ceiling. He, nor this Cowboys pass attack, have found their prowess from the previous season but have solidified their offensive identity over the last six games. Prescott carries the highest ownership on the slate (62.4) while projecting as the second-most owned Captain (11.8) behind his backfield running mate.

Jalen Hurts ($10,600 or $15,900)

Through the first seven games of the season, Jalen Hurts set his floor around 20+ DraftKings points and his ceiling in the low 30s. Fast forward to Week 18 and Hurts has produced under 17 fantasy points in consecutive weeks while being just three weeks removed from putting up 29.6 DK points on Washington. His ceiling won’t change given his ability to run amassing 784 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground so far this season. If Hurts is able to limit turnovers and convert in the red zone and on third down, expect a Captain-type performance out of the second-year former Heisman finalist.

Running Backs 

Ezekiel Elliot ($8,400 or $12,600)

How much Elliot will handle is completely up in the air given how little Dallas is playing for. Last week he was stuffed for 16 yards over nine carries and 14 yards on his lone reception. He does come with touchdown upside facing a Philly defense that has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. Elliot is fifth in the NFL with 49 red zone touches but comes with unpredictable risk in this contest. 

Corey Clement ($200)

If the Cowboys elect to rest key starters then expect former Eagles running back Clement to absorb a lot of the workload. The former Wisconsin Badger has had 17 rush attempts over the last four weeks and has added a reception in the process. He has displayed the ability to handle three-down work during his NFL career and could provide extremely cheap value if he sees additional snaps. 

Kenneth Gainwell ($1,600)

Miles Sanders (hand) was ruled out on Thursday while Boston Scott ($8,000) and Jordan Howard ($2,200) were added to the COVID reserve list on Monday. Both Scott and Howard are potentially available tonight creating an interesting situation and one that is worth monitoring. Being aware of the Eagles backfield situation is the easiest key to a lucrative weekend. This is the NFL’s best run game and whoever is taking carries from Jalen Hurts is capable of a game-busting performance. The value of Howard at his price point is encouraging if he’s active while paying up for Scott if he’s the only other active player could play as well. Stay tuned and cash on this Showdown.  

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb ($10,200)

Dallas has several fade candidates but Lamb boasts some of the worst leverage in the Showdown given his ownership (38.5). Philadelphia’s elite pass defense has allowed only 4.5 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks and ranks sixth on the season allowing 6.2. Their secondary is led by Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox while Anthony Harris and K’Von Wallace create a formidable safety duo. Nearly all passing production has come through tight ends against Philadelphia this season as was the case in the first meeting this season. Lamb was contained to three receptions but was fortunate to bust one for 44 yards helping him to 66 yards on the day. 

Amari Cooper ($8,800)

Also projecting for high ownership (35.0), Cooper will face Slay for a majority of his snaps and that doesn’t bode well for his outlook. While touchdowns in back-to-back games feel encouraging, the Alabama alum saw only four targets for 26 scoreless yards when last blanketed by the Eagles’ star corner. Cooper has busted in six of 14 games this season and is in line for his seventh tonight.

Cedrick Wilson ($6,600)

If I were to roster any Cowboys receivers, there was consideration put on Wilson. Wilson scored a touchdown in Dallas' first half without Gallup, proving the former sixth-rounder stepped into a reasonable target share. He caught all six targets against Arizona for 35 yards while seeing a 50% snap share. He has produced nearly as many big games as Cooper and comes at a fraction of the price. However, his price is still fairly high for my liking and warranted him a fade for a majority of my lineups. 

DeVonta Smith ($9,800 or $14,700)

Seeing only 21.9% ownership and less than 1% Captain play, Smith offers amazing leverage against an exposable secondary. While the interceptions catch the media’s attention, the stat guys know that Trevon Diggs has allowed over 1,000 receiving yards this season. With that risk comes offensive reward and Hurts has displayed the ability to hit Smith over the top with nine completions of 20 or more yards and three consecutive weeks with one. None of the other wide receiver options for Philadelphia interest me in a low-volume pass attack. 

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz ($5,200 or $8,400)

Schultz could be the safest play of the Showdown with 27 targets in the last three weeks and the best matchup available. The Eagles are atrocious against tight ends this season as it appears to be a systematic failure. Philadelphia has allowed a league-worst 101 receptions to the position while surrendering 996 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Schultz finished with Week 3 meeting with six receptions for 80 yards and two touchdowns, starting the Eagles season of struggles against the position. He has 75 receptions for 787 yards and six touchdowns on the season while commanding above 21% target share in three straight. His projected 33% ownership and 5.1% Captain play is far too low for his matchup and price point.

Dallas Goedert ($5,200)

Added to the COVID list on Monday, Goedert carries a status worth monitoring. He is clearly Hurts’ second-favorite target seeing 26 targets over his last four games. Over that span, he’s recorded 339 receiving yards on 21 receptions while adding two scores. He doesn’t carry the advantageous matchup that Schultz will see but the Cowboys aren’t an intimidating matchup for tight ends either. They rank right in the middle of the pack allowing an average of 12.7 points to the position per game. If Goedert is inactive, Tyree Jackson would potentially step into a dart throw spot. 

Defenses

Dallas Cowboys ($3,800)

The Cowboys' injury report will provide better insight as to what Dallas defense the Eagles will face tonight. If Parsons and Brown both ruled out this becomes a vulnerable group. They still have a handful of playmakers that could make it a long night for Philadelphia, but it becomes significantly more difficult without crucial players. Due to the number of open opportunities on cheaper offensive options, I would argue fading this defense if most players remain inactive.   

Philadelphia Eagles ($3,200)

Will Mike McCarthy elect to rest his starters at some point in this game? That answer could be the key to playing this daunting Eagles defense. The amount of significant performers on the Dallas injury report creates a sticky situation when projecting this Showdown. However, I expect this unit to show up in their final home appearance before inevitably becoming road warriors in the playoffs.

The Bottom Line

This is one of the harder showdowns to project with little at play and so many question marks on the injury report. Both teams would like to roll into the postseason off a winning streak but are the health of their starters worth the risk? The Eagles are on a nice four-game divisional winning streak and would love to snap the Cowboys' undefeated divisional record. Meanwhile, Dallas has the sour taste of defeat in their mouth and has the most to gain in this contest. While it’s simply a shot in the dark, I anticipate a competitive defensive battle that comes down to Dallas’ third-down and red zone defense versus Philadelphia’s red zone and third-down offense. The turnover battle will be another key ingredient to victory.