Week 18 Saturday DraftKings Showdown: Chiefs vs Broncos

Welcome to Week Eighteen of the Add More Funds DraftKings Saturday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

This AFC West clash between the division-leading Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) and bottom-dwelling Denver Broncos (7-9) will kick off a compelling inaugural Week 18. The Chiefs have dominated the Broncos on way to 12 straight victories but Denver had won the previous seven matchups, nevertheless, the series sits at 68-55-0 in favor of Kansas City. Both teams are coming off losses with the Broncos losing three in a row and four of their last five games while the Chiefs are 8-2 over the last ten games yet suffered a 34-31 defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals last week on the road. Now, Kansas City travels to Empower Field at Mile High hoping to put pressure on the Tennessee Titans for the top-seed in the AFC. The spread opened at 10.0-points favoring the Chiefs but has since moved to +11.5 with a game total of 45.0-points. In Kansas City’s last 12 wins six have covered this spread while the other six have been within an average of 5.5-points with five of six being a one-score game. Denver is 7-9 against the spread and goes under the game total more than any other team at 12-4 on the season. The Chiefs are 8-8 against the spread with the over going 9-7 on the year.

Team Breakdown

Since acquiring Melvin Ingram, Kansas City has allowed 15.2 points per game and sacked the opposing quarterback 19 sacks in eight games. This is a major improvement after allowing 27.5 points per game and only registering 11 sacks in the eight games prior to the trade. Defensively they have found a new identity but are still vulnerable to offensive playmakers, succeeding over 400 yards of offense to the Bengals and the Chargers in two of the last three weeks. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the main playmaker missing for the Chiefs, although Darrel Williams has stepped in admirably and is approaching 1,000 yards from scrimmage for the first time in his four-year career. A healthy dose of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who are each over 1,000 receiving yards, should prove to be enough to handle for a Broncos secondary that will be without first-round pick Patrick Surtain. Kansas City is second in the NFL in passing yards (283.5) and leads the league in third-down conversion (51.8) an area that Denver has struggled.

Drew Lock will get his third straight start and has shown maturity in his decision-making. He’s committed zero turnovers in his last 10 quarters of play while producing 486 passing yards and two touchdowns. Denver enters with their assortment of offensive weapons but needs to win upfront in order to create an optimal situation for their third-year quarterback. Generally more successful in low-scoring affairs, the Broncos will need to establish the running game if they hope to keep Patrick Mahomes in check. The Chiefs have intercepted a quarterback in 12-of-15 games this season and 10 of the last 11 but allow the fifth-most yards per rush attempt (4.6) in the league. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon create a physical two-headed backfield that has run over 1,600 yards this season while contributing another 500 yards in the pass game. Noah Fant, Cortland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick form a bevy of pass-catching options for Lock who faces Kansas City defense ranked 22nd in pass DVOA. Denver’s defense has been a strong suit all season despite parting ways with perennial All-Pro edge rusher Von Miller midway through the season. The Broncos will need to improve on their 27th ranked third-down defense (44.1) if they hope to limit the Chiefs' scoring opportunities. 

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes ($12,000 or $18,000)

Mahomes has gone over 20 fantasy points in four straight games while averaging 24.5 points per game just slightly above his season average of 23.8. Denver has allowed the third-least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (16.1) despite allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt. However, two of the Broncos’ top corners, Patrick Surtain (calf) and Ronald Darby (shoulder), have already been ruled out. Expect the Chiefs to come out firing after last week’s disappointing loss and a depleted Denver secondary to be the victim. Electing to roster Mahomes in your Flex generates desired salary but also recognize the stability of him in your Captain slot.

Drew Lock ($9,000 or $13,500)

Coming off a season-best 245 passing yards and one touchdown last week against the Chargers, Lock gets a matchup with an aggressive Chiefs defense that is certain to pressure his decision-making. Slightly worse against the pass than the run, Kansas City ranks 24th in overall DVOA while ranking 22nd against the pass and 19th against the run on the season. Expect Denver’s game plan to establish the run game in order to limit the Chiefs’ pass rush but also allow Drew Lock to take shots down the field. Kansas City allows 21.3 points per game to opposing quarterbacks (30th) and are much weaker against the pass in the red zone on the season. 

Running Backs 

Darrel Williams ($9,800)

Averaging 12.5 points per game since Week 13, Williams has offered the Kansas City something in the ground and pass game out of the backfield. With 541 rushing yards and 422 receiving yards, he only needs 37 to eclipse 1,000 yards from scrimmage on the season. His eight touchdowns surpass his career total of six and we should expect him to command a majority of the snaps after seeing 80% of the snap share last week. The matchup isn’t ideal but the usage is certainly there and catching three passes in four of his last five games provides a solid floor with touchdown upside. 

Derrick Gore ($3,600)

The 27-year old rookie is averaging 13.1 yards per reception and 5.1 yards per rush on the season while contributing two touchdowns. He’s seen 47 snaps over the last three games and will be the main backup for Williams in this matchup. He’s been extremely efficient but his limited usage makes it difficult to reason with the price. If he fits in your roster as a cheaper play I’d prefer him over Demarcus Robinson or Albert Okwuegbunam but would elect for Tim Patrick before any of the above. 

Javonte Williams ($8,000)

Splitting nearly 50:50 timeshare with Melvin Gordon on the season, the rookie from North Carolina has been the slightly more efficient back on the year. Williams has averaged 12.7 fantasy points over 16 games but posted 20 or more points in three straight games from Week 12 to Week 14. Kansas City has allowed 24.1 points to opposing running backs on the season and are susceptible to both the ground and the air. However, they have only allowed eight touchdowns to the position (T2nd) on the season, significantly lowering the upside for either Broncos back. 

Melvin Gordon ($7,600)

Only averaging 6.1 points over the last three weeks, Gordon comes into Week 18 in the final year of his contract. It will be his last chance to display his talent before most likely electing for free agency in the offseason. He has 49 fewer rushing and 91 fewer receiving yards than his rookie counterpart but has scored seven touchdowns to William’s four. As mentioned, Kansas City is particularly stout against rushing touchdowns and touchdowns to running backs in general, making Gordon a predominantly poor play given his touchdown-dependency. 

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($11,400 or $12,600)

Hill benefits the most from Denver's secondary missing Patrick Surtain, Ronald Darby, and Kareem Jackson. The Broncos’ defense contained both Travis Kelce and Hill in Week 13 but without crucial contributors will struggle to defend this elite duo. On the season, Denver is especially elite against tight end production so favoring Hill’s game-buster ability makes logical sense. He has averaged 19.1 DraftKings points per game on the season and has 12 double-digit performances. In seven games he amassed 20 points and averaged 32 points in these outings. The Broncos are allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt over the last three games and are caught in a vulnerable situation due to injury. The Chiefs average nearly 40 pass attempts per game and with Hill seeing a 26.4-percent target share there is plenty of opportunity for another Showdown-breaking game.

Courtland Sutton ($5,600)

Denver’s receiving options are much more valuable than the options after Hill and Kelce on Kansas City. Sutton costs the most of the Broncos’ receivers but has arguably the best matchup while carrying the team’s highest target share (19.2). He sees 16.7% of red-zone targets which also leads the wide receiver position for Denver, an area the Chiefs are primarily vulnerable in. If the Broncos let Drew Lock air it out or are forced to based on game script, one or more of these pass catchers for Denver will benefit and Sutton has a good argument to be the one.  

Jerry Jeudy ($5,000)

Jeudy is another name to monitor as the former first-rounder has led the Broncos' target share on four occasions this season despite only five starts on the year. His 2.63 yards of separation per target rank second in the NFL while providing Drew Lock with a safety blanket when facing pressure. Running over 65% of his snaps from the slot keeps corner’s hands off his release while allowing for additional separation near the red zone. The Chiefs’ pass defense allows  37.5 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers while also ranking 28th in the league by allowing 8.0 fantasy points in the red zone to the position. 

Tim Patrick ($2,800)

A reasonable value play given his price point and 16.1% target share on the season. He rivals Sutton for the best matchup out of the Broncos’ receivers and should allow for more lineup flexibility. A majority of the wide receiver production against the Chiefs has come from the outside where Patrick does a majority of his work. Seeing five targets per game has allowed the undrafted Utah Ute to produce five touchdowns and an average of 42.6 yards per game. 

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($10,400 or $12,200)

Potentially facing the toughest matchup on the slate with the Broncos allowing only 8.3 fantasy points to the position on the year. In their first matchup, Kelce went 3-27 scoreless yards slightly under the season average that Denver allows. The Broncos have allowed only one touchdown to tight ends this year while giving up an average of four receptions for 39.4 yards per game. Schematically, it’s slightly easier to take away Travis Kelce than Tyreek Hill as you’re sacrificing a box defender to chip which creates gaps in the run as opposed to vulnerabilities in the pass. Kelce could certainly boom but the numbers through 17 weeks sure project a bust. 

Noah Fant ($6,600)

Kansas City on the other hand is near the bottom verse opposing tight end production. Their 13.1 fantasy points allowed to the position ranks 20th in the NFL and comes by way of 5.2 receptions for 55.1 yards per game. They’ve allowed six touchdowns to tight ends despite being a top-10 defense against the position in the red zone. Fant's price cuts into valuable upside of other options which is why I kept him out of a majority of my lineups. 

Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,200)

Certainly, a punt play that banks on touchdowns for success, Okwuegbunam allows you to reach for higher-priced options while gaining access to a reasonable matchup advantage. Tight ends catch my interest as they are scripted plays in important situations and also maintain a check-down role that can become useful against teams that like to pressure. The second-year fourth-rounder from Missouri has seen two or more targets in six consecutive games and makes sense as a punt play if needed. 

Defenses

Kansas City Chiefs ($4,600)

The Chiefs are certainly capable of taking advantage of a poor offensive showing with five double-digit performances on the year. They averaged 7.6 fantasy points per game on the season and scored 17 points in their last meeting with Denver. The addition of Melvin Gordon shifted the landscape of the entire NFL and despite their high price could make sense as a low-priority play in a showdown slate.   

Denver Broncos ($3,400)

A much better real-life defense than fantasy useful, the Broncos have averaged 7.4 fantasy points on the season but don’t generate many takeaways or sacks despite holding their opponents to the third-fewest points (18.4) in the NFL. The matchup against Kansas City is definitely one to avoid primarily with how they’ve been playing lately. Not to mention the bevy of vital defensive players they will be without in this contest.  

The Bottom Line

This divisional rivalry has caused Mahomes difficulty in the past and certainly had that feel prior to the handful of inactives on Denver’s end. The Chiefs stand to win the most in this game and typically in the NFL that’s the team who prevails. Denver could certainly spoil Kansas City’s momentum but it feels more like a Drew Lock interview than anything for the Broncos who started the season hot but quickly fell victim to a complacent offense strapped by injury. If Denver hopes to compete in this one it doesn’t feel like their formula of low-scoring, slow-paced contests will succeed and it could present a fun showcase for Lock heading into the 2022 offseason.