Week 17 DraftKings MNF Showdown Breakdown: Browns vs Steelers

Welcome to Week Seventeen of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

The Cincinnati Bengals clinched the AFC North yesterday with a win against the Kansas City Chiefs, making tonight’s Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup a desperate effort at one of the remaining AFC Wild Card spots. Cleveland’s chances were eradicated with the Los Angeles Chargers commanding victory over the Denver Broncos, leaving the 7-7-1 Steelers with a sliver of hope to nudge out the Chargers and Baltimore Ravens for the final 8th seed. In what could be Ben Roethlisberger’s final game at Heinz Field, the Steelers have the most to gain while the visiting Browns purely despise the thought of allowing their divisional rivals any glory. This will be the 141st meeting between the two teams with Pittsburgh leading the series 77-62-1. The Steelers have rattled off 19 straight Monday night wins in Pittsburgh, boasting a 28-5 home record on Monday Night Football. A win tonight would give them 51 Monday Night victories, one more than the San Francisco 49ers for the most all-time. Cleveland has lost 17-straight regular-season games at Heinz Field with their last victory coming in 2003 and are 1-14 against Pittsburgh in road regular-season finales. While history is not on the Browns' side, they are inching closer to full strength with a handful of starters returning from injury and/or COVID reserve list. Cleveland was well on their way to their second playoff berth in the last 19 years before COVID and injuries decimated their chances over the past several weeks. This matchup carries a game total of 42.5-points while favoring the home Steelers by 2.0. 

Team Breakdown

The Browns aim to ruin the Steelers’ playoff hopes tonight, welcoming the return of interior mammoths Jadeveon Clowney, JC Tretter, and Jedrick Wills from COVID reserve while impact performers Kareem Hunt and Malik Jackson enter as questionable. Cleveland’s secondary gets back Greg Newsome who has missed the past three games but will continue to patch pieces together with starters John Johnson III, Ronnie Harrison Jr., and Troy Hill all ruled out. With injuries and COVID ravaging their roster over the last month and a half, the Browns have gone 2-3 in their last five while losing two straight. At 7-8, they sit in the cellar of the competitive AFC North and are looking into the eyes of the postseason with a talented roster filled with plenty of questions. They enter Week 17 with the third-best rushing attack in the NFL at 144.9 rush yards per game but have struggled to put points on the board averaging only 20.9 points per game. Their 27th ranked passing attack produces a mere 200.7 pass yards per game while their quarterbacks have been sacked 38 times and hold a 17:11 touchdown-interception ratio. Defensively, the Browns have stifled opponents' yard production (336.1 total yards per game) but remain one of the league’s worst red zone defenses and allow the 17th-most points per game (21.9). It’ll be curious how Cleveland manages their backfield with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt being slowed by injury for a majority of the season. The emergence of D’Ernest Johnson creates an interesting situation for tonight’s game as well as the impending offseason. Johnson has over 500 yards from scrimmage this season on 87 touches accounting for 6.0 yards per touch. Hunt has missed seven games this season for a variety of issues while Chubb has missed four games himself.

Ben Roethlisberger holds a 91-31 regular-season home record which ranks third-most all-time behind Tom Brady and Drew Brees. His 416 passing touchdowns rank eighth all-time while his 63,721 passing yards rank fifth. He isn’t the gunslinger he once was but has the chance to throw for over 3,500 yards for the 11th time in his career with 127 yards in his next two games. A win tonight and next Sunday at Baltimore would solidify Pittsburgh’s playoff fate regardless of the outcome of the Los Angeles Chargers-Las Vegas Raiders Week 18 showdown. The Steelers’ defense is on pace for their worst performance in the franchise’s last 33 seasons. They’ve allowed 178.9 rushing yards per game to their opponent over the last eight games creating opportune circumstances for the ground-and-pound Browns. Allowing 24.7 points per game and 386.1 total yards in the process adds to their deficiency against the run. Offensively, they haven’t fared too well either, producing only 20.1 points (21st) and 330.9 total yards (24th) of offense per game. Rookie Najee Harris and third-year Diontae Johnson have been vacuuming touches in this offense all season. Harris leads the NFL by a long shot with 87.9% of the Steelers rushing attempts and the second-most touches per game (22.3). Johnson is on the way to his first-ever 100-reception season. He has seen the seventh-highest target share (25.1) in the league, securing 92 receptions for 1,079 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on the season.  

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield ($9,200)

Averaging 14.5 points per game this season gives plenty of reason to avoid rostering the Browns quarterback who is coming off a four-interception performance just last week. Mayfield has produced single-digit showings in four games thus far this season while throwing at least one interception in 7-of-13 games this year. Cleveland’s 46:54 run-pass ratio is the seventh-highest run-heavy offense in the league, making tonight's game plan most likely to attack a porous Steelers’ run defense. The return of two impactful offensive linemen will improve Mayfield’s situation in terms of protection but the former Heisman winner appears to be hampered by a harness around his ailing left shoulder. 

Ben Roethlisberger ($9,400 or $14,100)

Coming off two horrendous outings against the Chiefs last week (8.4 fantasy points) and the Titans the week before (11.9), Roethlisberger enters Week 17 potentially starting his last home game of an illustrious 18-year career. Averaging 240.9 pass yards a game this year, the Miami (OH) alum has thrown for under 160 yards in consecutive games and would love to get back to his gun-slinging ways tonight. With 36.8 pass attempts per game, the opportunity for a solid performance is far from out of question. Expect the Steelers to attack a battered secondary as opposed to focusing on the running game where Cleveland allows the eighth-least yards per rush attempt (4.1). 

Running Backs 

Nick Chubb ($11,600 or $17,400)

Coming off his best game since Week 11, Chubb enters tonight’s showdown with the third-most running yards (1,143) in the NFL. He’s seen 57 rush attempts over the last three weeks, running an additional 41 routes for nine targets. The return of Kareem Hunt could muck up an already muddy backfield situation but Chubb is the unquestioned lead back. His average of 18.2 fantasy points per game makes him the favorite play of the slate with 15.8% Captain ownership and 64.4% ownership overall. The unpredictability of this backfield workload makes a sticky situation when inserting Chubb as your Captain although it could pay off if he continues to lead the Browns in snaps and touches. As the highest-owned Captain, Chubb carries the lowest leverage score (-7.2) on the slate making him a much better Flex play.

Kareem Hunt ($5,400)

Heading into tonight’s showdown with a questionable tag, Hunt has been marred by injuries to his ankle and calf as well as a recent stint on the COVID reserve list leaving him unavailable for seven games this season. When active, the former Toledo alum has averaged 13.8 DraftKings points per game but hasn’t scored at or above his average since Week 5. Since then, D’Ernest Johnson has emerged as another back in the Browns backfield, creating a very difficult situation to project. Despite Hunt’s big-game ability, fade him upon his return to the lineup coming off an injury-riddled eight weeks. 

D’Ernest Johnson ($4,800)

It's incredibly complicated to project Johnson’s usage tonight with the return of Kareem Hunt. The third-year back has performed admirably in the latter’s absence and even as the feature back for a few games this season. His price point could be enticing but the potential of slating as the third running back in the offense yields him nearly too risky to play. There could be value found in hitting on either Hunt or Johnson tonight but Chubb remains the safest play by a longshot out of this talented Cleveland backfield. 

Najee Harris ($10,800 or $16,200)

With 16 rushing yards tonight, Harris would become just the second Steelers rookie running back to surpass 1,000 rushing yards on the season. He also enters with a legitimate chance to tie or break Franco Harris’ 49-year old record of 1,055 rushing yards as a Steelers’ rookie. Najee has been far less efficient than Franco, averaging only 3.7 yards per rush behind a struggling offensive line while the latter averaged 5.6 yards per rush back in 1972. The younger Harris sees the highest usage in the league with the third-most rush attempts (268) and most targets (87) out of any running back in the league. The matchup isn’t ideal but the usage is undeniable and needs to be rostered as a Flex or Captain in tonight’s showdown.

Wide Receivers

Jarvis Landry ($8,400 or $12,600)

The best Captain option tonight leads the showdown with an Optimal Captain Score of 9.7 while scoring an overall Leverage Score of 6.3%. Averaging 11.0 fantasy points per game, the run-heavy approach of the Browns has turned Landry into somewhat of a boom-bust play. He has five double-digit performances this season while coupling those efforts with three games between 1.9 and 6.6 points and two others of 8.7 and 9.5. Injuries have slowed one of the toughest wide receivers in the league but over his last four games, Landry is averaging 14.5 fantasy points and appears to be Mayfield’s undeniable favorite target. Landry is a lock in your lineup tonight and makes sense as either a Flex or Captain play.

Rashard Higgins ($5,600)

Priced as the second most expensive pass catcher for the Browns, Higgins enters the week with 11 targets over his last two games. With eight receptions for 82 scoreless yards since Week 15, Higgins has a reasonable floor that doesn’t condone the price point. His lone touchdown comes in a 42-47 defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers back in Week 5 and leaves little reason to pay up for the wide receiver tonight. 

Donovan Peoples-Jones ($5,000)

Holding the best Leverage Score (7.7) on the slate, Peoples-Jones comes in with a snap share of over 85% in three consecutive weeks. His Flex (24.3) and Captain (4.8) ownership is far too low and creates tremendous leverage on the field. DPJ carries an Optimal Captain Score (7.2) in the top-10 but could see his role reduced with Anthony Schwartz projecting for more work over the final two weeks of the season. The numbers say he’s a great play but recent comments by head coach Kevin Stefanski regarding Schwartz leave me hesitant. 

Anthony Schwartz ($1,400)

Catching his first career touchdown last week got Schwartz’s name popping into head coach conversations. The third-round rookie had been moving his way up the depth chart prior to suffering a concussion in Week 10. Now with the season essentially over for the Browns, it looks as if they want to get more of a look at the Auburn speedster. He comes in with zero projected ownership and an extremely low cost that allows for the more expensive options on the slate. With 4.27 forty-yard dash speed, all Schwartz really needs is one catch to pay off tonight.

Diontae Johnson ($10,400 or $15,600)

Nearing the first 100-reception season of his short three-year career, Johnson has seen the fifth-most targets (144) and fourth-highest target share (28.6) in the NFL. He continues to see a bevy of deep targets (22) and red zone targets (19), increasing the opportunity for a breakout game. Over the last ten games, the former Toledo Rocket has been targeted an average of 10.7 times per game while seeing 16 red zone targets over that span. Cleveland will be without three starters in the secondary, missing both safeties and a slot corner. Expect Denzel Ward to shadow Johnson for a handful of snaps but not to follow him throughout the game. Due to his guaranteed usage and a decent matchup, fire Johnson into your Flex or Captain spot confidently.

Chase Claypool ($7,200)

Experiencing a somewhat disappointing sophomore season, Claypool enters Week 17 with the eighth-most drops (7) at the wide receiver position and has only secured one touchdown after catching nine as a rookie. He has averaged 11.3 fantasy points on 6.8 targets per game and should put him in line for his typical 5-8 targets tonight. He holds a positive leverage score (2.1) and makes a decent Flex play given the injuries to Cleveland’s secondary. 

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper ($5,200)

A target share of 14.1% doesn’t equate to the disappointing season Hooper has had thus far. He enters as a touchdown-dependent play who has surpassed 42 receiving yards just once this season. His 25.5% red zone target share helps his touchdown dependency but has only resulted in three touchdowns this year. He carries 15.8% ownership garnering a Leverage Score of -2.1 for the former Stanford alum who excels more as a run-blocker than a pass-catcher. 

David Njoku ($4,200)

Pittsburgh presents a difficult matchup for tight ends having only allowed 5.8 fantasy points to the position over the last three weeks and only 9.5 per game this season. Njoku is the epitome of boom-bust tight end play as he has three games of between 10.6 and 30.9 this season accompanied by 11 games of single-digits. His usage has grown over the last five weeks but with a crowded tight end corps and a difficult matchup doesn’t make sense in your lineup tonight.

Harrison Bryant ($3,000)

The Browns’ third-string tight end has caught red zone touchdowns in consecutive games and enters as a potential punt option at a low cost if the Steelers end up without Devin Bush tonight. Bush is an elite interior linebacker that covers sideline to sideline making it a tough matchup for running backs and tight ends. Being aware of the former first-round picks' status ahead of game time could help construct the roster and give reason to electing for one of the three Browns' tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth ($6,600 or $9,900)

A mid-season emergence for the Steelers’ rookie tight end offered Roethlisberger memories of Heath Miller. The former Penn State alum has produced some big games his rookie season with seven double-digit performances over nine starts. Tonight he will face a Browns defense that is middle-of-the-road against opposing tight ends and will be without both starting safeties creating a beneficial environment for Freiermuth. Since Week 6, he is seeing 5.7 targets per game resulting in 322 yards and six touchdowns over 38 receptions. His Captain ownership (3%) is extremely low and overall carries a Leverage Score of 1.5 heading into the Showdown.

  

Defenses

Cleveland Browns ($4,400)

The Browns have boasted one of the better defensive groups all year and enter tonight trying to spoil the Steelers season. The rivalry creates plenty of excitement on Cleveland’s end as star defensive end Myles Garrett enters hoping to add to his team's single-season record and career-high 15 sacks. Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most sacks (3.3) per game over the last three weeks while averaging 1.2 giveaways per game. The Browns will be without several key starters but the matchup is ideal as the Steelers have struggled mightily on offense all season.   

Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,600)

Pittsburgh ranks fourth in the NFL with 2.9 sacks per game but will face a Browns' offensive line that welcomes the return of two crucial starters to a group that has only allowed 1.7 sacks over the last three weeks. The ground-and-pound style should limit Mayfield’s opportunity to reproduce his horrible performance from a week ago in which he threw four interceptions and was sacked five times. Devin Bush is a key inactive to be aware of as he really solidifies the middle-of-the-field for Pittsburgh and would be a devastating loss to the run and pass defense in tonight’s game.

The Bottom Line

This rivalry has been renewed over the past couple of seasons as turmoil on the field and an improving Cleveland franchise have led to three of the last five meetings being decided by seven points or less. Despite the Browns losing their chance at their second playoff berth in 19 seasons, they do welcome the opportunity to ruin the Steelers’ season and potentially Roethlisberger’s final home game. Don’t expect them to take this moment lightly as there truly is distastefulness brewing amongst these AFC North rivals. Keep an eye on the injury report ahead of game time to maximize the potential of your lineups and enjoy the physical battle that is sure to ensue.