NFL Week 16 DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome to week sixteen of the Add More Funds DraftKings Main Slate Rundown. Remember, this is a weekly column. We are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we want to help both the experienced-player and beginners alike. To do this, every week we will release our favorite weekend classic slate plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly, projected to be under-owned. Plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Here is our week sixteen NFL DraftKings main slate rundown.

Quarterback: 

Jalen Hurts ($6400) Cash-game play

With his cheapest price since week one Hurts is a screaming value. In a must-win game against an inferior opponent in the Giants I think they will run him early and often. Already with ten rushing TDs and 733 rush yards Hurts is doing his best vintage Cam Newton impression and making it look easy. The rest of the Eagles offense is also starting to get healthy after seemingly having multiple contributors out every week. I don’t love him in tournaments, but in cash, Hurts is the perfect combination of high floor, with an affordable price.

Matt Ryan ($5,400) Prefer in tournaments still strong in cash

A quarterback who is a home ten-point favorite is always a good play. When they are competent and only cost $5,400 it is even better. Since Week nine Ryan has looked at best pedestrian and usually much worse than that. However, the first eight games for the Falcons saw him top 20 DK points five times flashing his upside. I think a matchup with Detroit and their lack of front seven talent will aid Ryan and his lack of escapability immensely. Play Ryan with confidence and stack with either Gage ($5,900) or Pitts ($5,800). 

Josh Johnson ($4,000) Cash-game play but worth a stab in tournaments

Not a lot of analysis here. Johnson is a starting NFL quarterback for $4,000. Add in that the Ravens defense is getting to the point of no return with defensive injuries facing a team full of playmakers and the Ravens may need to play a lot of catch-up and get easy completions and possible rushing opportunities for their QB. Johnson is 35 years old and hasn’t played other than one start earlier this year (for the Jets in week 9) but he is still a capable player and showed his upside in that one start. Deploy at your own risk and use those savings well. 

Other QB thoughts:

This week the usual expensive quarterbacks are either off the slate (Rodgers, Murray) or have serious warts that are making me back off of them (Brady, Mahomes, Allen). I like Trevor Lawrence ($5,000) again and will likely have some Burrow ($5,900) in tournaments.

Running Back: 

Alexander Mattison ($6,800) Play in all formats

Mattison has been the starter for three games this season. Those three games resulted in 26.1, 30.3, and 21.4 DK points. This week he faces a Rams team that has been pretty average against the running back position (17th) and with a team that is still likely to be without Adam Thielen, forcing more plays to the run game and short pass areas. Mattison is not the talent that Dalvin Cook is, but in his limited opportunities he has produced like a fantasy all-star. Put him in your lineup in any type of game. 

James Robinson ($5,900) Prefer in cash but will play in tournaments

Wrote this about him last week “likely the most popular play at his position and possibly the entire slate this week.” I don’t think much has changed and it’ll be for the same reasons. He once again draws a terrible opponent in the Jets and has no competition for carries with Carlos Hyde going on IR. According to our AMF tools, last week (with Hyde not playing) Robinson saw the second-most snaps of any running back (59) and had the sixth-highest snap percentage of any running back (95%). The opportunities and matchup combined with the price do make Robinson a smash play once again.

David Montgomery ($5700) Prefer in tournaments still strong in cash

AMF rushing tools show us that no other back received a carry for the Bears last week. We can also sort for the entire season and know that only Najee Harris has a higher snap percentage among running backs than Montgomery. This shows the Bears are using him as not only their sole runner but also that he stays on the field in the ever-important passing situations. Facing a Seattle team that is equally ready to pack it in, I think the Bears ride Montgomery this week and he’s able to pay off his midtier salary on volume alone. If he breaks one or even gets TD luck to go his way then we have struck gold. 

Other RB thoughts:

The middle tier is very strong this week. There are lots of good plays between 5-6.8k. To me, this means that you can look at the position for tournaments as a way to pivot off the higher owned players in this region by going to lesser owned but also strong plays (Jacobs, Carter, Sanders, Mixon, etc.) Or you can differentiate by spending up to be contrarian on Najee Harris or Cordarrelle Patterson. 

Wide Receivers: 

Cooper Kupp ($9,100) Play in all formats

Kupp has been amazing this year leading the league in targets and target percentage and also red-zone targets. His targets have resulted in a league-leading 1625 receiving yards (next closest is 1335) and 14 Tds (next closest is 11). He has hit the 100-yard bonus in nine of their games so far as well and there’s nothing about Minnesota’s personnel or scheme to suggest he won’t make it a tenth this week. You should have plenty of savings elsewhere to be able to play fantasy and Draftkings 2021 season MVP. 

Justin Jefferson ($8,100) Prefer in tournaments still strong in cash

Quite possibly the best all-around talent in the league at the wide receiver position Jefferson does it all for the Vikings. Deep routes, contested catches, short crossers, working the middle of the field, even the occasional bubble/screen play. With Cook and likely Thielen out, Jefferson will continue to get force-fed (he has seen 9+ targets in his last six games). Ramsey is not shadowing as much as he has in the past and you know the Vikings will be scheming Jefferson away from Ramsey as much as possible driving even more targets his way. Stack Jefferson with Kupp and possibly Stafford and you have an explosive start to your tournament lineups. 

Antonio Brown ($4,900) Prefer in cash but will play in tournaments

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will not be suiting up for the Buccaneers in week sixteen. That leaves a massive opportunity for the healthy and fresh Brown to step in and be a target hog. The Panthers love to bring pressure as well which means when they get their quick Brown will likely be Brady’s hot route option. And when they can contain the pressure, Brown will destroy the Panther's 1-1 coverage. This is my favorite play of the week and it should be yours too. 

Other WR thoughts: 

There are some cheap sub 4k receivers I like this week in Braxton Berrios, Laquon Treadwell, Nico Collins, Keelan Cole, and Emmanuel Sanders who is at 4k. Tyreek Hill is intriguing as he may be able to soak up a crazy amount of targets if Kelce misses. It is a dart throw for sure, but Robby Anderson could work as great leverage off of Antonio Brown, or as a great stack piece with Antonio Brown. 

Tight Ends:

The tight end position is once again abysmal on the main slate this week. I still recommend pairing your tourney quarterback with a tight end and hoping for a touchdown. 

Dallas Goedert ($5,100) Prefer in tournaments

This is very square coming off his big week fifteen game but I do like the talent, price, opportunity triumvirate that Goedert offers. The one issue with him is I don’t like deploying Hurts in tournaments and there are no run-back options I like on the Giants. Goedert is still strong though on his own compared to the other tight-end options. 

Cole Kmet ($3,300) Cash-game play 

I don’t know if Nick Foles will help or hurt Kmet this week but I do like his price compared to the number of targets he is seeing. This game should not be that high-scoring but I think the environment will be good enough for him to pay off this salary in cash. I will not be deploying him in any tournament lineups. 

Other TE thoughts:

Kyle Pitts at home against Detroit is pretty juicy. The guy is way too good not to have a big breakout game in a somewhat lost season in Atlanta. I think Arthur Smith is also the kind of play-caller that would go Pitts way a few extra times at the end of the season to help justify taking him fourth overall.  

Defense: 

Bengals ($2,800) Play in all formats

They are playing Josh Johnson this week and I think that even though I wrote him up earlier that is enough justification to play the Bengals at this price. 

Falcons ($2,600) Cash-game play 

The same story over again, but a home 10-point favorite against Tim Boyle at sub 3k prices is stealing.