Week 16 DraftKings MNF Showdown Breakdown: Saints vs Dolphins

Welcome to Week Sixteen of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

Tonight two 7-7 teams on the cusp of playoff contention will face off at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Both Miami and New Orleans are amid their respective winning streaks with the Saints leaving their last two games victorious while the Dolphins have rattled off six straight. The game total opened at 39.0 but has steadily dropped and sits at 37.0 this morning. At open, New Orleans was favored by 3.0-points but that spread has swung to favoring Miami by 3.0-points following 15 Saints and several starters testing positive for COVID. This puts their status tonight in question. Reports surfaced that Sean Payton personally reached out to Drew Brees to gauge his interest in coming back to quarterback the Saints for tonight’s game and potentially the remainder of the season. The head coach’s attempt was unsuccessful, leaving New Orleans with fourth-round rookie Ian Book out of Notre Dame to start under center if both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian remain unavailable. It’s an undesirable situation for the home team heading into a high-stakes showdown with both teams scrapping for playoff position. Both teams have turned their seasons around after respective losing streaks and players on both sides have contributed their recent success to learning how their teams win as well as gaining trust in the coaching staff, themselves and that process of winning. Miami is 2-4 on the road this season with a Week 1 in Foxborough and a Week 11 win against the Jets at MetLife Stadium. New Orleans has struggled at home with a 2-4 record and will look to turnaround their misfortune after losing three straight at Caesars Superdome. 

Team Breakdown

The Dolphins will attempt to become the first team in NFL history to lose seven games in a row only to follow that up with a win streak of seven games. After starting the season 1-7 they’ve strung six straight wins together, benefitting from their opponents holding a combined record of 25-48 over that span. Two wins came against the lowly New York Jets, while wins against the Giants, Panthers, and Texans were equally unimpressive. The only winning team they beat during this stretch was the Baltimore Ravens in a 22-10 victory back in Week 10. Miami’s defense has stifled their opponents over this run allowing 13.2 points per game while forcing 12 takeaways and 25 sacks over just six games. This presents an extremely difficult matchup for an offense that will be with either a fourth-round rookie in his first career NFL start or a quarterback that has prepared virtually all week. The Dolphin’s have allowed 103.7 rush yards per game, seventh-best in the NFL, but have struggled to defend the pass, allowing 245.4 yards through the air (24th). To their advantage, they will face the 30th ranked passing attack as the Saints have passed for only 194.6 yards per game this season. Miami has struggled to run the ball offensively this season (86.6 rush yards p/g - 30th) but recently added Duke Johnson and Philip Lindsay to their stable and have run for over 100 yards in two of their last three games including a 183 yard performance last week. 

New Orleans enters tonight with a handful of uncertainties. The quarterback position has been discussed but the Saints could also be without several significant starters. Two additional offensive starters remain uncertain of their status tonight with both tight end Adam Trautman and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk remaining on the COVID list. Meanwhile defensive captain Demario Davis and starting safety Malcolm Jenkins are both listed as well. Davis, unfortunately, holds the longest active streak with 158 consecutive games played, also putting that mark in question. The Saints defense has allowed only 20.4 points per game this season, ranking fourth in the NFL. It is certainly a situation to monitor up to game time as the status of these players will undoubtedly impact the flow of the game. New Orleans’ offensive coordinator, Pete Carmichael Jr., has talked up Ian Book ahead of this matchup, pointing out his mobility and accuracy while harping on his intelligence as a football player. Carmichael also expressed confidence in Alvin Kamara as an option to play quarterback recalling, “He was talking about the concepts we went through on film like a quarterback would talk about them, as far as the perspective of knowing what everyone was doing, not just his assignment,” during their draft discussions back in 2017. The Saints should deploy an offensive attack that features a heavy dose of run game while building pass options off that. Whoever starts at quarterback will utilize short to intermediate throws as well as the screen game to find easy completions and gain a feel for this Dolphins’ defense. New Orleans has averaged 117.1 rush yards per game (13th) while deploying a run-pass ratio of 51:49 over the last three games. 

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa ($10,200 or $16,500)

New Orleans defense would look significantly different tonight if Davis and Jenkins remain out due to COVID. It creates an optimal situation for the Miami quarterback who is likely to welcome back his favorite target, Jaylen Waddle, who missed last week due to COVID. Tagovailoa has passed for a pair of touchdowns in three of his last four games while averaging 235.8 pass yards per game and tacking on 6.5 rush yards per game over that span. He’s averaging 18.3 DraftKings points per game this season and will match up with a New Orleans defense that allows 240.2 pass yards and 19.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. 

Ian Book ($10,400 or $15,600)

    There’s very little to go off of when considering Book for your lineup. The rookie out of Notre Dame appeared in one preseason game this year against the Baltimore Ravens, going 9/16 for 126 yards and one interception. He displayed none of the mobility Carmichael mentioned in this contest, attempting zero scrambles or designed runs in the process. He will face a Dolphins’ defense that has allowed 245.4 passing yards, 22.3 points and 17.7 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Since Week 12, Miami has suffocated opposing quarterbacks to an abysmal 9.7 fantasy points per game, offering plenty of reason to keep Book out of your lineup tonight despite the third-highest ownership (54.8%) on the slate. 

Running Backs 

Myles Gaskin ($7,400)

    Either health or football ability is a concern for the least efficient running back in the NFL this season. This Dolphins backfield is suddenly crowded with healthy backs as Philip Lindsay and Salvon Ahmed return from the injury report and recent breakout performer Duke Johnson further muddies the situation. Gaskin has led Miami’s backfield with 55.8% snap share but looks to cede work given his 3.5 yard average on 164 rush attempts this season. He’s projecting for 26.5% ownership while 3.6% of contestants are appointing him Captain of their lineup. The Saints’ have allowed the least points to opposing running backs (19.1) this season and despite potential starters missing shouldn’t suddenly become a sieve to backfield production.

Duke Johnson ($7,200 or $10,800)

    Viewed predominantly as a pass-catching specialist, Johnson erupted for a career game last week after being called up from the practice squad. He set career-highs in rush attempts (22), rushing yards (107) and rushing touchdowns (2) while adding a reception on his only target for another 20 yards. Expect Johnson to lead the backfield or be the main component of the Dolphins timeshare in tonight’s matchup. His matchup could trend in a positive direction if the expected starters remain inactive for the typically stout New Orleans run defense. There is reason to select Johnson as either your Flex or Captain as the Saints have allowed three receiving touchdowns and one 100-yard performer through the air where he excels as a pass catcher with a career 9.3 yards per reception. He is only seeing 23.7% ownership overall with 3.7% electing for him as their Captain.

Alvin Kamara ($12,200 or $18,300)

    The unanimous selection of tonight’s game will potentially be without multiple starters on the offensive line and is coming off a disappointing game against a stout Buccaneers defense. While Kamara is only averaging 3.6 yards per rush over 184 attempts this season, he enters Week 16 as the Saints’ leading receiver with 38 receptions. He is certain to see a high target share tonight given the quarterback situation and has tallied eight total touchdowns this season while averaging 101.6 total yards per game resulting in 19.7 fantasy points per contest. The Dolphins are allowing the least fantasy points to opposing running backs (13.5) over the last five weeks allowing zero touchdowns over that span and an average of 91.7 yards on 20.6 touches per game. Kamara is projected as the highest-owned player on the slate with overall ownership at 67.8% and 19.8% of lineups electing for him as their Captain. 

Mark Ingram II ($5,200)

    In six games since rejoining the Saints, Ingram II has taken 64 rush attempts and 20 receptions for 381 total yards and one touchdown. He’s seen double-digit touches in his last five games while seeing 38.6% snap share since Week 9. The matchup isn’t ideal but the workload for both New Orleans’ backs is certain to continue. Ingram II has averaged 7.6 fantasy points in games with Kamara healthy and could produce similarly tonight if Kamara takes snaps at the quarterback position, making the former Alabama Heisman winner the feature downhill back. 

Wide Receivers

Jaylen Waddle ($11,600 or $17,400)

    On pace for a record-breaking rookie season, Waddle has averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game this season and 19.3 since Week 9. He missed last week due to COVID leaving some concerned about his conditioning evident by the lowly 6% Captain ownership and 31.5% overall. The Saints’ allow the ninth-most receptions per game (13.4) to opposing wide receivers and have allowed 37 fantasy points per game to the position. Waddle is seeing 8.9 targets resulting in 6.6 receptions per game presenting a favorable opportunity for the Crimson Tide alum. His leverage in the Captain slot and ability for big game breakout makes him an extremely valuable play in tonight’s showdown.

DeVante Parker ($9,400 or $14,100)

    Hobbled by injuries to his shoulder and hamstring, Parker has only played in seven games this season. He’s had a solid December, posting nine receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. His average of 12.1 fantasy points per game jumps to 14 over the month and has contestants rushing to fit him in their lineup. At 48.8% overall ownership (10.5% Captain), Parker is the fourth-most owned player and third-most elected Captain. He projects as a slightly better red zone option than Waddle due to his 6’3 stature but the Saints’ boast the sixth-best pass defense in the red zone allowing only 4.6 points on average to opposing wide receivers in this area of the field.  

Marquez Callaway ($7,800)

    The lone star from last week's 9-0 upset victory over the reigning Super Bowl Champions, Callaway posted his first 100-yard performance of his career. After seeing four targets for five consecutive weeks, the former Tennessee Volunteer saw nine targets for the first time this season. He enters Week 16 trailing Kamara by two receptions but leading the Saints with 555 receiving yards and six touchdown receptions. Matching up with the Dolphins who have allowed the sixth-most points (38.6 p/g) to opposing wide receivers this season seems favorable until you look at the last five weeks of production from this Miami pass defense. Since Week 12 they’ve allowed the fewest points (20.4 p/g) to opposing WRs, permitting only 301 receiving yards on a mere 21 receptions.

Ty Montgomery ($2,400)

    Given the predictable offensive scheme the Saints should deploy, Montgomery becomes a fairly decent cheap dart throw. The hybrid-back could see several designed screens or checkdowns in a game with an inexperienced quarterback. Despite following the trend of his teammates last week and having a useless showing last week, Montgomery had seen seven targets in consecutive games over Weeks 12 and 13 while taking ten rushes for 35 yards in the process. His role is limited but feels safe to peg him for a handful of touches tonight in a low scoring game at a cheap cost, that could be all you need. Only 5.8% of lineups have him selected so proceed with caution but understand there is also leverage in that. 

Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($1,800)

    Along with Montgomery, the oxymoron out of Texas displays a hybrid-option at receiver standing at 6’4, 210 pounds. He’s ran 57 routes (14.3 p/g) since Week 11 and leads the Saints with 18.6 yards per reception. In his last four games he’s scored two touchdowns and accounted for 100 yards despite only six receptions on eight targets. He projects to be slightly more owned than Montgomery at 8% (0.3% Captain) and should be viewed as a dart throw capable of leveraging your lineup to the cash if he finds the endzone for the third time in five games.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki ($6,400)

    The fourth-year tight end out of Penn State enters tonight’s showdown with 44.8% ownership and 10% Captain share. His matchup isn’t ideal as the Saints’ have allowed the ninth-fewest points (7.4) to opposing tight ends this season but could be without two of their main defenders of that position tonight. Gesicki has seen the third-most targets (97) at the position resulting in the 18.9% target share (8th). He has run the most slot routes (371) in the NFL for a tight end, as his whopping 56.3% slot share nearly makes him a wide receiver.  His 35 targets over the last five games have produced 20 receptions for 156 scoreless yards but with seven red zone targets over that span has the potential to find the endzone. 

Nick Vannett ($1,000 or $1,500)

    With Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson pending out due to illness, Vannett will step in as the main tight end for a team that figures to feature involvement for the position due to their quarterback situation. His 13% ownership feels drastically low for a team who targets the position at 19.1% this season. New Orleans has thrown 28.1% of red zone targets to tight ends this season resulting in five touchdowns. At an extremely low cost with guaranteed snaps, Vannett is one of the best plays on the slate tonight and even makes sense as a Captain if forming multiple lineups.  

Defenses

Miami Dolphins ($4,400 or $6,600)

    While Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael Jr. are two of the smartest offensive minds in football they’re faced with a cluster of a situation due to multiple impact performers carrying uncertainty ahead of game-time. The biggest losses to the offense are their Pro-Bowl level starters at tackle which really allows their run game to thrive. The Dolphins have been devastating defensively since Week 9, producing 13.5 fantasy points per game. With two games of nine points and outings of 23, 18, and 17, they are more than capable of leading your lineup to victory. With the matchup at hand they feel like a lock going into the showdown tonight, just keep an eye on the active players heading into game-time before deciding whether to make them your Flex or Captain.  

New Orleans Saints ($3,800)

    If the Saints enter tonight with Malcolm Jenkins and Demario Davis that would be enough reason to avoid the unit despite a decent matchup. There are several other key contributors currently on the injury report as Kwon Alexander, Marcus Davenport, and Carl Granderson remain questionable as well. These are all names to check on prior to kickoff and if the majority are healthy could present a tremendous opportunity in your lineup. It’s the situation to monitor the closest ahead of gametime, although 24.8% of contestants feel the need to insert them into their lineup regardless.

The Bottom Line

This game carries heavy playoff implications and with the laundry list style injury report on each side presents a detail to observe closely ahead of lock. Each team has suffered their own devastating losing streaks this season but have turned those losses into lessons and rattled off streaks that find them back in the playoff picture. When constructing your Showdown lineups tonight consider electing for the teams kickers as Brett Maher ($4,000) of New Orleans has seven made field goals over the last three games while Jason Saunders ($4,200) has made nine field goals in the last five games for Miami. Both defenses rank in the top five of touchdowns allowed in the red zone, presenting ample opportunity for the kickers to scoop up points when their respective offenses stall.