NFL Week 14 MNF DraftKings Showdown Breakdown

Welcome to Week Fourteen of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

The Arizona Cardinals welcome the Los Angeles Rams to State Farm Stadium in their first home game since November 14. The Cardinals have been an unstoppable force on the road boasting a 7-0 record with all their wins coming by double digits but are just 3-2 at home with losses in their last two. Their 10-2 record is tops in the NFL and has them positioned for a bye if the playoffs were to start today. A win for the Cardinals would clinch their first playoff berth since 2015. The Rams found an easy win against the Jaguars last week, ending a three-game skid from the month of November. At 8-4, Los Angeles sits atop the NFC Wild Card race while trailing Arizona by two games in the NFC West. It’s worth noting that Rams offensive tackle, Andrew Whitworth, will make NFL history as the first 40-year old player to start a game at tackle. Whitworth celebrated his birthday on Sunday and will be playing in his 236th game in his 16th year in the NFL. The game total (51.5) is the second-highest of Week 14, favoring Arizona by 2.5-points after opening at 3.0.

Team Breakdown

Los Angeles had success last week pounding the rock in Jacksonville as Sony Michel turned 24 carries into 121 rushing yards, becoming the Rams' first 100-yard rusher of the season. Currently ranked 24th in rush yards per game (97.9), their 39:61 run-pass ratio has spiked to 31:69 over the last three games. Sean McVay would be wise to establish the run game tonight as the Cardinals have allowed 4.7 yards per carry, the fourth-worst in the league. At 28.0 points per game, Los Angeles ranks fifth in the NFL in scoring with a majority of that offensive production coming through the air. Their 289.0 passing yards per game ranks second in the league and 399.4 total yards are tied for fifth. The Rams project to be without their starting center (Brian Allen suffered an MCL injury last week) and right tackle (Rob Havenstein due to COVID protocol) and will look for Coleman Shelton and Alaric Jackson to fill in respectively. Additionally, Darrell Henderson and Donte Deayon have been placed on the COVID list and will be inactive for tonight’s game. Terrell Lewis is listed as questionable due to a back injury, if he is deemed inactive it would open up snaps for Chris Garrett and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. The Rams are 4-2 on the road and 1-2 in the division so far this year. 

Arizona is playing in their second game since their well-timed Week 12 bye. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins had missed three straight games before returning last week allowing James Conner to become the offensive juggernaut in the meantime. Conner has nine touchdowns over the last six games and if he finds the endzone tonight will tie John David Crow for a franchise record of seven consecutive games with a touchdown. Arizona ranks third in the NFL in scoring at 28.6 points per game and has maintained a solid run-pass balance in the process. Their defense has been equally as impactful, holding teams to 18.7 points per game third-best in the league. The Cardinals could see the return of running back Chase Edmonds and starting left guard Justin Pugh which would benefit their offensive attack after both have been sidelined since Week 9. Special-teamer Charles Washington is also designated to return while Zach Kerr, a rotational nose tackle, has been declared out due to a rib injury. 

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford ($10,400)

Stafford has had a very productive season thus far with 3,611 passing yards on a 30:9 touchdown to interception ratio. His 300.9 pass yards per game rank third in the NFL and the 8.2 yards per attempt rank fourth. Arizona has stifled quarterback production this season allowing the third-least DraftKings points (16 per game) to the position per game, well below Stafford’s 23.4 average. In their Week 4 meeting, the former first overall pick went  26/41 for 280 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He does have an opportunity to exploit the Cardinals in the red zone as they rank 14th in points allowed to the quarterback position (6 p/g) in this area of the field. 

Kyler Murray ($11,200)

Returning from injury for the first time last week, the former Heisman winner attempted only 15 throws but scored four total touchdowns on way to an imposing 30.8 fantasy points. His ten rushing attempts were the most of the year and display the dual-threat potential for the Oklahoma alum. Averaging 24.6 DraftKings points per game is certainly impressive but facing a Rams defense that has allowed 18.3 points per game to the position this season could limit the upside. Back in Week 4, Murray went 24/32 for 268 yards and two touchdowns, adding another 39 yards on the ground. It makes sense to try and fit both gunslingers in your lineup if possible but if money allows for just one I would lean to favoring Murray.

Running Backs 

Sony Michel ($7,200 or $10,800)

Coming off the first 100-yard performance for the Rams this season, Michel offered Los Angeles the balance they’ve been lacking offensively. It’d be shocking if McVay didn’t go back to the well tonight as establishing the run would keep the Cardinals offense off the field and allow Stafford the opportunity to utilize play action to create space for his studded class of pass catchers. With Darrell Henderson missing due to COVID protocol, Michel enters as the only real option for the Rams in the backfield. He played 97% of snaps last week and is looking at similar usage again tonight. Arizona presents a difficult matchup but based on his expected workload needs to be considered as a FLEX or Captain play tonight.

James Conner ($9,800)

Conner is on an absolute tear over his past six games averaging 20.4 DraftKings points per game over this span. While much of this production is due to the nine touchdowns, he is seeing ample work in both the run and the pass. Over this six-game stretch he’s accounted for 87 carries and 15 receptions for 548 yards. His snap share has increased over the last four weeks, peaking at 92.3% last week. The potential return of Edmonds could cut into his workload but we should expect Kingsbury to favor the scorching hand of Conner. Although he comes in at a high price point, his production has been worth it and he should find a way into your lineup if possible tonight. The Rams allow 22.3 points to running backs and haven’t been strong against red zone production at the position where Conner’s 36 touches rank ninth in the NFL. 

Chase Edmonds ($4,600)

As a game-time decision, this is a difficult play for tonight’s matchup. Edmonds has been productive when healthy averaging 11.3 points across nine games. He has six double-digit outings and is a threat both on the ground and through the air. The Cardinals have until 4 p.m. EST today to declare his status which creates a situation that’s easier to avoid. It could even be a bit of gamesmanship that Kingsbury is playing with the Rams. Unless you’re entering multiple lineups and have one worth throwing a dart on, avoid this situation with safer options available.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($12,000)

The NFL leader in targets (136), receptions (100), receiving yards (1366), yards after catch (603), red zone targets (25), and touchdowns (11) will face a tough matchup with Byron Murphy tonight. Kupp has seen double-digit targets in every game but one this season and is Stafford’s favorite target by a long shot. He’s scored over 20 fantasy points in nine games this year and has five games of top-five production including two games as the slate’s top producer. He carries a 31% target share that extends to the red zone (28.4%). The red zone will be the area for the Rams to exploit as Arizona is allowing nine fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position in this area of the field. That ranks 30th in the NFL and will be an emphasis for the Rams attack tonight.

Van Jefferson Jr. ($8,000)

The main beneficiary of the Robert Woods injury, Jefferson Jr. has stepped in and performed admirably over the past two games. His 17 targets resulted in nine receptions and 134 yards plus two scores over that span. The snap share has been high all season as Jefferson Jr. blocks well and allows the Rams to stay multiple which McVay prefers. For a receiver with only 70 targets, his 14 deep targets and 14 targets in the red zone are quite impressive. He’s seeing high-value targets and carries the best-projected matchup out of the Rams pass catchers.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,200 or $9,300)

Similar to the man above, Beckham Jr. has seen solid target share over the past two games and it has resulted in touchdowns each week. Turning 15 targets into seven receptions for 109 yards and two scores has allowed Beckham to produce double-digit performances in consecutive weeks. His snap share has wavered over his tenure with the Rams dropping from 98.4% in Week 12 to 51.5% in Week 13 but is most likely due to Los Angeles blowing out Jacksonville. Expect to see Beckham Jr. on the field often and heavily involved in the Rams offensive plans tonight making him a solid play in the FLEX or Captain spot at his price point.

DeAndre Hopkins ($9,600)

Hopkins has had somewhat of a down year in terms of production and it could be due to the injuries he’s dealing with but also feels like he’s no longer the target vacuum he was at one point in his career. This is not due to a lack of skill on Hopkins end but more so a result of a deep talent pool for Murray to distribute targets too. Expect Hopkins to match up with both Jalen Ramsey and Darius Williams today which presents a difficult matchup. He certainly has the potential to find the endzone in a high-scoring affair but with only 17 targets over his last four games could be difficult to consider at his cost. This isn’t a suggestion to avoid Hopkins but with so many options on today’s slate, proceed with caution.

A.J. Green ($4,800)

The production from the group of pass-catchers behind DeAndre Hopkins has been difficult to predict for the Cardinals but is a little easier with Murray back in the fold at quarterback. In the Week 4 meeting between these two teams, Green turned six targets into five catches for 67 yards and a touchdown and actually led the Cardinals in receiving. His target share was the second-highest on the team at 18.8% trailing only Hopkins. His projected matchup with David Long is advantageous and could result in another big game for the veteran receiver. 

Rondale Moore ($2,000)

The rookie receiver from Purdue has been the epitome of boom-or-bust this season. Moore has six games of under six points and four games of double digits. He’s averaging 8.7 DraftKings points per game and has remained involved in the Cardinals offense consistently throughout the season but at various rates. Kliff Kingsbury keeps him heavily involved around the line of scrimmage as a threat in the run game as well as the screen game. This has led to Moore receiving 48 receptions on 57 targets as well as an additional 15 carries on the season. He has displayed big-play ability and makes for an enticing dart-throw at his low price point. 

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee ($5,000)

Arizona has suffocated tight end production this season allowing 9.1 fantasy points to the position on average. George Kittle has been the only tight end to surpass 100 receiving yards on the Cardinals this year and they have only allowed two touchdowns to the position all season. Tight ends have seen 78 targets against Arizona but only caught 61.5% of them for 48 receptions. Higbee has seen five or more targets in four straight with 26 targets over that span. His production has been lacking, however, averaging only 3.5 receptions for 23 yards despite the number of targets. Avoid the play in a bad matchup on low productivity and a plethora of safer plays on the board.

Zach Ertz ($5,400)

In six games since joining the Cardinals, Ertz has turned 31 targets into 23 receptions for 279 yards and three touchdowns. Seeing around 80% snap share for the past four weeks projects a lot of opportunity in a high scoring contest for the Stanford product. Through Weeks 9, 10, and 11 Ertz was seeing a target share north of 20% and with five red zone targets since joining the Cardinals boasts a 24.4% red zone target share. The Rams have not been strong against opposing tight ends, allowing 14.4 DK points per game (21st) and 3.4 points in the red zone (22nd). With the other pass catchers not receiving as consistent volume and facing tougher matchups defensively, feel confident locking Ertz into your lineup. 

Defenses

Los Angeles Rams ($3,600)

The Cardinals are not an easy matchup especially with the return of their offensive stars. While Arizona is middle of the road in sacks allowed (26) their lack of giveaways (13) doesn’t offer a ton of upside for a defense that averages only one takeaway over the last three games. The Rams are allowing 22.5 points per game and have struggled to force fourth down on their opponents, allowing a 42%  third-down conversion rate. The Cardinals rank 6th in offensive third-down conversion rate (43.8) and could use this advantage to exploit a Rams defense that has allowed an average of 33.5 points in their four losses this season. 

Arizona Cardinals ($3,200)

As the cheaper defensive option, the Cardinals enter with more opportunity than their competition. The Rams boast a lethal offensive attack but Matthew Stafford has thrown six interceptions in their four losses this season. Of his nine interceptions this season, three have been returned for touchdowns. This mark puts Los Angeles in last place for opponent defensive touchdowns allowed. The Rams have been solid protecting the quarterback, allowing only 18 sacks on the season (T-2nd), however will be without two starting offensive linemen for tonight’s game. Arizona is averaging 1.9 takeaways and 2.7 sacks per game while allowing a measly 18.7 points. 

The Bottom Line

We’re blessed with another pivotal Monday Night Football game as two of the top teams in the NFL square off looking to make a final push for playoff position. Arizona welcomes the return of crucial offensive players while Los Angeles isn’t sharing the same fortune. Regardless, the field will be littered with stars on both sides of the ball as each team projects to be a Super Bowl contender. I lean with the books and favor the Cardinals in this matchup but expect it to be a close game as long as the Rams are able to establish some sort of ground game. Arizona has struggled at home and with losses in their last two home games will look to inspire some of the road magic they’ve displayed this season. There are a few injury statuses to watch up until game time but for the most part plan for a hard-fought contest featuring two of the most physical defenses in the NFL facing two of the highest-powered offenses the league has to offer.