NFL Week 12 MNF DraftKings Showdown Breakdown

Welcome to Week 12 of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

The spread for tonight’s Monday Night showdown opened favoring the Seahawks but has fluctuated back and forth, landing on a classic pick ‘em this morning. This matchup holds a game total of 47.0-points. Seattle has gone 1-4 over their last five games, nearly falling out of playoff contention, while Washington has moved back into the NFC playoff race thanks to their recent two-game win streak. If the Football Team pulls off a victory tonight, they enter a four-way tie with the Falcons, Saints, and Vikings in pursuit of the last NFC Wild Card spot and only sit two games back from the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys. The Seahawks are amidst their worst 10-game start (3-7) under Pete Carroll and a loss tonight would be the first three-game losing streak of the Russell Wilson era. Third-down conversions could be a determining factor as Seattle enters with the last-ranked third-down offense in the NFL, converting on a measly 35-of-108 (32.4%) opportunities. Washington’s defense has struggled mightily to get the opposition off the field, allowing conversions on 71-of-134 (53%) chances also ranking last in the league.

Team Breakdown

Seattle enters on a losing streak having lost to Green Bay and Arizona in back-to-back weeks following their bye and the return of Russell Wilson. They have been outscored 40-13 over this span and with a 3-7 record find themselves at the bottom of the NFC West division. Offensively, the Seahawks will be without running backs Chris Carson (neck, IR), Rashaad Penny (hamstring), and Travis Homer (calf), leaving only Alex Collins and DeeJay Dallas in the backfield. Seattle enters Week 12 with a 45:55 run-pass ratio but may lean more heavily on the pass tonight as Washington’s defense ranks 30th in opponent pass yards (270.0) and 7th in opponent rush yards (98.5). Russell Wilson and the pass game have not found the groove since his return, going 34/66 for 368 scoreless yards (5.6 ypa) and two interceptions over their two-game skid. Additionally, they have allowed seven sacks resulting in two fumbles although neither was lost. Since a hot three-game start to the season, Wilson has struggled to surpass 207 yards in four straight games, while producing under 161 yards in three of those games.

Meanwhile, Washington is coming off a two-game win streak with victories against Carolina and Tampa Bay in consecutive weeks. Their defensive improvements have been a major factor as they held each opponent under 300 yards of offense while dominating the time of possession. Part of this turnaround is due to their refinement on third-down. After starting the season allowing a 59.7% conversion rate, Washington allowed Carolina and Tampa Bay to convert on only 6-of-19 (31.6%) third downs which drastically improved their ability to control the clock. Tonight they’ll get a Seattle team that has seen their third-down fortune sway the other direction. In the past two weeks, the Seahawks have converted 9-of-25 (36%) third downs, while allowing their opponents to convert on 14-of-28 (50%) third-down opportunities. The Football Team is expecting the return of two offensive starters with off-season signing, wide receiver Curtis Samuel, returning for only his third game this season, and tight end Logan Thomas back following an eight-week absence for a hamstring injury. The return of two talented pass catchers should aid a passing attack that ranks 20th in pass yards per game at 224.9. 

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($11,000)

It appears Wilson was potentially rushed back from his finger injury a little too early as over the past two weeks he’s produced 8.5 and 7.6 DraftKings points respectively. He enters this Showdown as the highest-priced option and faces a Washington defense that allows the most DraftKings points to the quarterback position (25.6) in the NFL. Through ten games, the Football Team has seen 24.8 completions on 36.4 attempts result in 280 pass yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns on average. Quarterbacks have run for an additional 26.5 rush yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns over that span. Last week they allowed 26.16 points to Cam Newton but surrendered only 15 points to Tom Brady the week before. With Seattle’s recent offensive struggles, avoid slotting Wilson as your Captain. If you have the extra cash, he makes sense as a Flex play, although fading him all together could pay dividends as he enters with the second-highest ownership (59.5%) on the slate.

Taylor Heinicke ($9,800 or $14,700)

Pricing Heinicke over a thousand dollars less than Wilson seems preposterous. This resulted in the Washington quarterback earning the highest ownership overall (63%) as well as being the most common Captain selection (13%). Seattle has allowed the second-most pass yards (291.7) per game to opposing quarterbacks and recently allowed Colt McCoy to unload a 25.92 point performance by way of 35/44 for 328 pass yards and two touchdowns. McCoy added six rushes for 18 yards with a long of 11-yards. Heinicke has averaged 18.3 DraftKings points per game and is coming off a 23.1 point performance against Carolina. He’s been effective with his legs (276 rush yards and a score on 45 rush attempts) and his arm (66.2% completion with 7.3 pass yards per attempt) so far this season. 

Running Backs 

Alex Collins ($6,600)

Struggling through a groin injury has resulted in four single-digit outputs by the former Razorback who is averaging 4.8 DraftKings points over that span. His 3.4 yards per carrying in the last four games leaves little room for a breakout with the Seahawks averaging only 23 rush attempts per game. It feels like a situation worth avoiding despite Collins carrying 39.4% ownership and the sixth-highest Captain ownership (8%). His low price is due to the low production of this Seattle rushing attack that averages only 98.4 rush yards per game. However, Washington ranks 29th in red zone production to the running back position, and Collins saw a single red zone carry last week and has 12 red zone touches on the season.

DeeJay Dallas ($5,200)

One of the better plays of the night is Seattle’s second-year running back out of The U. On 23 touches this season, Dallas is averaging 5.7 yards per touch and is fresh off his first touchdown of the season. He split snaps evenly with Collins last week and as the only other active back on the roster could see his highest usage of the season. Washington ranks third in rush yards allowed to opposing running backs (71.5) but is middle of the road against receiving production allowed to the position which is where Dallas excels. Additionally, he saw two carries in the red zone to Collins one and will look to exploit that weakness of the Football Team’s defense tonight. His 22.7% overall ownership and 3.2% Captain ownership is far too low for a player who may operate as Seattle’s RB1 due to injury.

Antonio Gibson ($8,600 or $12,900)

Despite splitting snaps with J.D. McKissic, Gibson has handled 45 touches over the past two weeks and will face a Seattle defense that has allowed the second-most DraftKings points (31.5) to opposing running backs this season. The second-year back is working through a stress fracture in his shin which limited his practice participation this week but won’t affect his availability today. On the season his 154 carries rank sixth and have resulted in 601 rushing yards which are ninth amongst running backs. His 63 evaded tackles are third at the position and could present an issue for a Seattle defense that has struggled to tackle this season.

J.D. McKissic ($7,200 or $10,800)

As one of my favorite Captain plays on the slate, McKissic enters with a 25.4% ownership overall while only being selected as a Captain on 3.9% of lineups. Seattle has allowed more receiving yards (72.6) to opposing running backs than any team in the NFL. Averaging 46.2% of snaps this season has allowed the pass-catching specialist to be the second-leading receiver for the Football Team and has resulted in 38 receptions for 371 yards and a touchdown. He’s tacked on an additional 41 rush attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown. His 48 targets are the sixth-most amongst running backs and equal a 14.7% target share which is eighth-highest at the position. He leads all running backs at 7.0 yards per touch, a product of his league-leading 4.67 yards created per touch. 

Wide Receivers

Tyler Lockett ($10,200 or $15,300)

The lone bright spot in last week's loss, Lockett corralled 4-of-5 targets for 115 scoreless yards displaying his deep-ball ability by way of 100 air yards. His 519 completed air yards rank 10th at the wide receiver position and the 37.6% air yards share ranks 13th. He holds a 99.3% route participation which is second overall and will face a Washington defense that has allowed 42 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers. Lockett will likely match up with Kendall Fuller who held D.J. Moore to two receptions for 16 yards last week but has been exposed a few times this season. He enters with the fourth-highest ownership overall (50.6%) while being the third-most selected Captain (11.6%) on the slate. Seeing nearly equal target share to D.K. Metcalf presents difficulty in identifying which one will have more weekly opportunities. Lockett has seen 26 targets over the past three weeks.

D.K. Metcalf ($8,800 or $13,200)

Despite seeing 16 targets over the past two weeks, Metcalf has produced an unimpressive seven receptions for 57 scoreless yards. Prior to these two down weeks, the matchup nightmare had run a streak of eight consecutive double-digit performances. His eight touchdowns rank third in the NFL and with ten red zone targets, it's easy to see why. A target share of 26.8% increases to 38.5% in the red zone and could help the second-year receiver exploit a Washington defense that has allowed 6.7 DraftKings points in that area to the position this year. He projects as the second-most owned Captain on the slate at 12.6% and his 53.7% ownership ranks third overall. 

Terry McLaurin ($10,600 or $15,900)

Averaging 17.1 DraftKings points per game this season, McLaurin has broken out in four contests this season, posting over 24 points against the Panthers (24.3), the Packers (28.2), the Falcons (33.3), and the Giants (30.7). He has double-digit outings in 7-of-10 appearances and leads the NFL in deep targets (21) and air yards share (44.4%), while his 1131 air yards, 99.1% route participation, and 94.4% snap share all rank in the top five at the wide receiver position. His 587 unrealized air yards (second-most) display the opportunity present in a matchup with a banged up Seahawks secondary. Seattle hasn’t allowed a 100-yard receiver since nearly allowing two in their Week 5 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Robert Woods massacred Seattle by way of 12 receptions for 150 yards while his counterpart, Cooper Kupp, added seven catches for 92 yards. In one career game against the Seahawks, McLaurin posted seven catches for 77 scoreless yards on 12 targets. He enters with the fifth-highest ownership (46.9%) while being the fifth-most owned Captain (9.4%).

DeAndre Carter ($5,600)

A touchdown reception in three consecutive games has launched the Sacramento State veteran into fantasy relevance. With 15 targets over that span, Carter has surpassed 50 receiving yards twice despite only catching eight of these targets. He lines up in the slot 23.2% of the time and has been used heavily in the red zone over the past three weeks, seeing four red zone targets over that stretch. The issue is this role could be relinquished with the return of Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel. Negative regression and the addition of higher priority pass-catchers may send Carter to irrelevance and should be a situation to approach cautiously. 

Curtis Samuel ($5,000)

After signing a three-year $34.5 million dollar deal this offseason, Samuel has been hampered by a groin injury since training camp. He’s appeared in only two games so far this season, seeing five total targets for four catches of 19 yards. The swiss army knife was coming off his best season in the NFL after producing 1051 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns for the Panthers just a year ago. Washington will most likely restrict Samuel to a snap count limiting his potential for production and giving little reason to slot him into your lineup until we see what he’s capable of in this offense.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett ($6,200 or $9,300)

Seattle’s head coach Pete Carroll said on Wednesday, “we have to keep going to” Gerald Everett. Everett has acted as the third option in the passing attack whenever healthy and his physicality after the catch is what Carroll identified as the reason the team needs to increase his involvement. Since returning from his own groin injury, Everett has turned 12 targets into 11 receptions for 100 scoreless yards over two games. Over the past five weeks, Washington has allowed the fourth-most points to opposing tight ends, allowing big games to both Kansas City and Green Bay. Travis Kelce and company had nine receptions for 126 scoreless yards while Robert Tonyan and Mercedes Lewis had seven receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown. Everett has played a big role in the middle of the field and as a check-down option which could be useful if the Seahawks struggle in pass protection again.

Logan Thomas ($4,800 or $7,200)

Similar to Curtis Samuel, Thomas entered 2021 as a big part of Washington’s offensive plans but has had his season derailed by injury. Fortunately, his role is rather predictive tonight, as the Football Team has deployed their starting tight end for 99-100% of snaps in 8-of-10 games this year. He will be highly involved in the passing game as well, as the position has produced over five DraftKings points in every contest this year while scoring double-digits in five games thus far. Thomas is coming off his best statistical season and the former converted quarterback presents a mismatch for Seattle who has allowed the fifth-most points in the red zone (4.4) to the position this season. Under 25% of lineups are rostering the starting tight end for each team and this feels like a mistake. 

Defenses

Seattle Seahawks ($4,600)

The lack of production from this defensive unit gives plenty of reason to fade this play and with a price point above $4,000 needs to be avoided completely. This unit has struggled on their own, but recent offensive struggles have made this situation even more desperate. Their 4.04% sack rating is second-lowest in the NFL and at only 0.9 takeaways per game rank 30th in that metric. Washington does give the ball away 1.5 times per game, which presents an opportunity but has been less turnover prone at home so far this season. 

Washington Football Team ($4,400)

Seattle turns it over less than every team in the NFL, averaging only 0.6 giveaways per game. However, their 10.34% sack rate ranks as the second-worst, trailing only Chicago. Seattle has allowed 3.3 sacks per game and Washington is averaging 2.2 sacks per game at FedExField. They will be without Montez Sweat and Chase Young for this game but Jonathan Allen has been the best defensive player for the Football Team, disrupting the opposing run and pass game. This unit has been incredibly stout against the run, allowing the seventh-least rush yards per game but their 30th ranked pass defense could get exploited by a formidable Seahawks passing attack.

The Bottom Line

Seattle is running fewer plays (55.0 p/g) than any team in the league and it's by a considerable margin. This results in lower-scoring games and plenty of unders. In fact, 8-of-10 games have hit the under for Seattle, hitting by an average of -11.44 points. Washington had seen their four-game under streak end last week against Carolina and have seen an even 5-5 split of unders/overs this season. This game has the feeling of a sneaky shootout with the Seahawks due for some positive regression and the Football team averaging 28 points over their last two games despite facing solid defensive units. The line action has favored Washington heavily but should settle in as a pick ‘em and with each team sitting with an implied total of around 24 points feels like we could have a barn burner on our hands.