NFL Week 11 MNF DraftKings Showdown Breakdown

Welcome to Week Eleven of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking to get back to their winning ways after dropping two consecutive road games. They host the New York Giants who have won two of their last three games and their improving defensive unit is a big reason for that recent success. Tampa Bay enters Monday Night with the highest implied total on the slate (32.25) while New York owns the third-lowest implied total of the slate (19.25). Daniel Jones has battled the Buccaneers in two career matchups. His first career start came on September 22, 2019, in a game versus the Bucs. The Giants rallied from down 18 at halftime to see a 22-point second-half aid them to a 32-31 victory. Last year the Giants led 14-6 at the half but a 19-point second-half from Tom Brady forced the outcome to be determined on the final possession. The Giants marched down the field and Jones found Golden Tate in the endzone but was unable to convert the two-point conversion to push the game to overtime, losing 23-25 at home. This showdown carries a game total of 49.5 while favoring Tampa Bay by 11.0-points, but don’t sleep on New York keeping this game closer than the spread suggests. The Giants hold a 5-0 record against the spread in their last five games at Raymond James Stadium and for the season they’re 3-1 on the road against the spread. Tampa holds their own 5-0 record, winning straight up at home in their last five games. They have won their last three home games by an average of 28.6 points in games against Atlanta, Miami, and Chicago. 

Team Breakdown

Only the New England Patriots and the Washington Football Team have been able to hold the Buccaneers under 20 points so far this season and New York hopes to repeat this success. In their most recent games versus Carolina, Kansas City, and Oakland, the Giants’ defense allowed 39 total points (13 p/g), permitted a 28.2% (11-of-39) third-down conversion rate, and forced six turnovers over that span. The Buccaneers excel in third-down conversions and scoring, converting on 48.2% of their opportunities and scoring 31.0 points per game, both good for third-best in the NFL. The Giants are expecting Saquon Barkley to return following a four-game absence as Daniel Jones has been dealing with a consistently depleted offensive weapon group. Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons was the last time Jones’ had all his offensive weapons healthy and available. Barkley’s return would help boost a rush attack that ranks 25th in the league averaging 95.9 rush yards per game. 

Tampa Bay enters Week 11 following just their second back-to-back loss of the Tom Brady era. The last time this occurred was Week 11 & 12 of the 2020 season, the result was an eight-game win streak for the Buccaneers ending with a win in Super Bowl LV. Tom and crew are expecting the return of Rob Gronkowski following a six-game absence due to an ailing back. His return will help fill the void of Antonio Brown who is missing his fourth straight appearance. Tampa Bay remains incredibly banged up in the secondary where losses of starters Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting forced ownership to make a move on veteran Richard Sherman, who will now be out for several weeks following a grade 2 calf sprain. With a depleted pass defense the Buccaneers have allowed the eighth-most pass yards (254.2) on the season while their run defense leads the NFL allowing only 79.8 rush yards per game. Their recent two-game skid is a product of losing the turnover battle and not getting crucial third and fourth down stops. This helped Washington and New Orleans dominate the time of possession which is critical for keeping a high-powered offense off the field.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones ($9,600 or $14,400)

Jones rumbled into the 2021 season off to a hot start. In the first four weeks, he scored 99.2 (24.8 p/g) DraftKings points but has seen single-digit performances in three of his last five appearances. Tampa Bay presents a difficult matchup averaging 2.4 sacks per game while coming off a Week 10 performance in which they sacked Taylor Heinicke five times. The Giants allow 2.2 sacks per game and will be without former-first round left tackle Andrew Thomas for the fourth straight game. However, the Buccaneers do allow 21.1 DK points (seventh-worst) on average to opposing quarterbacks and their 8.4 points allowed in the red zone is dead-last in the league.  Daniel Jones is having his best statistical season despite so many injuries to his offensive arsenal. He’s producing career highs in completion percentage (64.8%), yards per attempt (7.0), and completion (10.8) while dropping his interception ratio to the lowest of his career at 1.7%. His ability to add fantasy points on the ground makes him an intriguing play at a lower cost for the quarterback position, although he hasn’t surpassed 30 yards on the ground since Week 3. 

Tom Brady ($11,200)

Entering as the slate's highest-priced option, Brady faces an improving Giants defense that has been middle of the road against opposing quarterbacks, allowing 19.6 DK points per game. Tom is amidst another MVP-caliber season leading the NFL in passing touchdowns (27) and ranking first in pass yards per game (318.9). He has produced over 30 DK points in five-of-nine appearances and is averaging a whopping 26.2 points per game over the season. The Giants’ defense sees the fifth-most opponent passing attempts per game (38.1) while the Buccaneers are on pace to attempt more pass attempts per game (41.9) than nearly any other team in NFL history. The Giants also struggle against quarterback production in the red zone and the potential return of Rob Gronkowski further complicates things. He feels like a safe lock in your lineup but at the premium cost might carry the most value outside of the Captain position. 

Running Backs 

Saquon Barkley ($7,800)

As arguably the most prized possession of the New York Giants organization, it will be interesting to see how much work they afford Barkley in tonight’s showdown. Tampa Bay started the season as a defense you would avoid playing a running back against, but in the past two games have allowed Antonio Gibson (21.8 points) and Alvin Kamara (16.6 points) to score three touchdowns. They had previously gone five straight weeks without allowing a touchdown to the running back position. Barkley suffered a gruesome ankle injury in Week 5 but displayed superhuman recovery ability and has practiced for two consecutive weeks. If Devontae Booker ends up being ruled out that would reward Barkley with a majority of the backfield work so each player's status is worth monitoring up to game time. 

Devontae Booker ($4,800)

Filling in for Barkley since Week 5, Booker has produced double-digit performances in five straight games. Involved in both the pass and run game, the fifth-year back out of Utah surpassed 100-yards from scrimmage in the last two games while scoring three touchdowns over the five-game span. He was a late addition to the injury report for a hip injury, but if cleared for action should spell Barkley snaps throughout the game. His production over the last five weeks displays the opportunity for the Giants’ backfield tonight as he averaged four targets and 19.5 carries per contest. If Barkley were to be ruled out, feel confident slotting Booker in your lineup, if each is declared healthy proceed with caution.

Leonard Fournette ($10,000)

Over the past five games, Fournette has seen around 60% of the snaps and is averaging 18.6 DK points per game over that span. His targets continue to climb after seeing nine last week he is averaging 5.3 per game on the season. As the most targeted running back on the team, and fourth-most targeted in the league, he carries a very safe floor in a Tom Brady-led offense. The Giants have struggled mightily against opposing backs, allowing 28.4 DK points on average, fourth-worst in the NFL. Their 4.6 yards per rush attempt is sixth-worst in the league and the 122.6 allowed rush yards per game ranks 23rd. He has seen the sixth-most red zone touches (33) at the running back position and his six-goal line carries rank eighth overall. As the second-most expensive skilled position player, he has one of the safer floors and should find his way into most lineups.

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay ($7,000)

The prized signing of the offseason has had an unspectacular season riddled by injuries and low production games. His lone 100-yard performance came back in Week 4 followed by an injury the following week resulting in a three-game absence which he returned from last week. With 19 receptions for 310 scoreless yards on the season, Golladay enters Monday Night eerily priced as a receiver who carries only a 16.1% target share and only one red-zone target up to this point. Golladay’s 1.45 yards of separation per target ranks 67th at his position and is cause for concern given the 5.01 yards of cushion per route run. Jones has been unable to generate a connection on the field with his new receiver this year which leads to a tough decision when slotting him in your lineup. Has this year proven that Golladay is more of a dart throw play despite injuries at the position or will the depleted Buccaneers secondary allow him to find his ceiling game for the season? Proceed with caution. 

Kadarius Toney ($6,800 or $10,200)

No wide receiver saw more than 31 snaps in Week 9 for the Giants and that expects to change heading into Monday’s matchup. After breaking out in Weeks 4 and 5, Toney experienced a handful of injuries that have slowed his production over the past four weeks. He presents the perfect mismatch for the Buccaneers defense as a player who can take any touch to the house. Toney ranks 25th in the NFL with 197 yards after the catch and given only averaging 28 snaps per game this is quite the impressive feat. Expect the rookie from Florida to be one of the top targets tonight for Daniel Jones and a reasonable play as a Flex or Captain on your roster.

Darius Slayton ($3,200)

In the last two games, Slayton has seen one and two targets respectively while failing to produce a catch. Over a three-game span, he is seeing 55-87% of snaps and should see similar work tonight. He enters as a boom or bust option given his previous experience with Jones but given the active statuses of Toney and Golladay will drop to the fourth or fifth option in this Giants attack. The snaps are present but with the targets lacking be cautious about putting Slayton in your lineup. 

Mike Evans ($10,200)

Evans' target share has been all over the place this season. He has seen less than five targets in three of the last four games while seeing between eight to twelve targets in five games this year. Meanwhile, his nine touchdowns are second-best in the NFL. While the opportunity by target share is lower than he’s typically seen, the quality of targets is what has kept his fantasy season alive. At 14.4 yards per average target (9th), 333 routes run (7th), 12 red-zone targets (9th), and 495 unrealized air yards (7th), Evans ranks in the top-10 of several important metrics. Losing Antonio Brown for another game should allot more looks to Evans who could also have more room to operate given the return of Rob Gronkowski. He carries a boom or bust tag, especially at this price point, but has the ability to dominate when Brady is looking his way. Due to the volatility and price, keep him out of your Captain slot but feel free to slot him in as a Flex.

Chris Godwin ($9,400 or $14,100)

Despite holding a higher target share (20.8%), routes run (351, 2nd), red-zone targets (18, 2nd), and yards after catch (396, 3rd) over Evans, Godwin enters as the cheaper option. He has clearly been Brady’s preferred option in the open field and the red zone but his activity in the slot is the biggest reason to select Godwin over Evans tonight. In the last five weeks, the Giants’ defense has allowed 60% of wide receiver production to come from the slot, allowing 16.8 fantasy points per game. With 279 slot snaps this year, Godwin has recorded a 52.7% slot rate which ranks fifth-highest at the position. He has seen 31 targets over the last three games and was completely removed from the injury report this week. He feels like a great option at the Captain spot but should find himself in your lineup regardless tonight. 

Tyler Johnson ($5,000)

With Antonio Brown out again, Johnson steps into his fourth straight week of opportunity. Seeing 64% of snaps or more over the last three games have resulted in 13 targets for ten receptions yielding 98 scoreless yards. He should see the best matchup among his fellow wide receivers, as the Giants have two top outside corners in the league with James Bradberry and Adoree Jackson. New York’s remaining corner, Darney Holmes, has been afforded increased opportunity over the last three weeks with his snap share growing week-by-week. Johnson will be the unquestioned WR3 for Tampa Bay tonight and could fall into a reasonable target share if the Giants are able to keep it close. 

Tight Ends

Evan Engram ($6,600)

Regardless of his target total dropping over three consecutive weeks, Engram has been able to increase his fantasy output from 10.4 to 10.5 to 12.8 last week. His 15 targets over this three-game span resulted in two touchdowns and 97 yards. Tampa Bay ranks 22nd in production allowed to opposing tight ends at 14.8 DraftKings points per game. Engram continues to see more snaps than Kyle Rudolph ($2,200) but each is producing from the position. Given the history of production by the Ole Miss product it feels safer throwing a dart at the less owned and less expensive Giants’ tight end but with Sterling Shepard out again tonight there will be space to operate in the middle. 

Rob Gronkowski ($6,200 or $9,300)

Through the first three weeks of the season, Gronkowski was seeing seven targets per game and turned those into four touchdowns. The connection with Brady appeared to be as strong as ever and Gronkowski looked healthy and fresh in his second-year post-retirement. This Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski connection has already resulted in 102 touchdowns with the potential for many more. Gronkowski has been out or limited in five consecutive games but appears to be back to full health and ready to take on a Giants’ defense that has allowed 460 yards and four touchdowns to the tight end position this year.

Defenses

New York Giants ($2,800)

Through the first six weeks of the season, the Giants’ defense had failed to score more than six DraftKings points all year. Fast forward to Week 7 against the Panthers and you’ll see Giants’ defense has been transformed. In consecutive weeks they’ve scored a defensive touchdown and against good competition (Week 8: Kansas City, Week 9: Las Vegas). This defensive unit has produced 38 DraftKings points over that three-game span and will look to keep the high-powered Buccaneers' offense in check tonight. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,200)

As stated in the intro, this defensive unit has struggled in the past two weeks resulting in back-to-back road losses to the Saints and the Football Team. Allowing 59 points over this two-game span is far from normal for a defense that had allowed only 21 points on average prior. This defensive unit has produced eight or more DraftKings points in four games while producing six or less in the other five. The Giants have allowed 20 sacks, fumbled 14 times (losing four), and have thrown seven interceptions. 

The Bottom Line

The spread suggests this game will be what most would expect from the Giants and Buccaneers facing off in Week 10, but the recent history between the two teams and the last three weeks could suggest a closer contest than Vegas predicts. Each team has been bit hard by the injury bug this year but at this point, the replacements have had plenty of time to acclimate themselves. The Giants offense has displayed the ability to score points and with the pending return of Saquon Barkley, may provide Jones with enough weapons to exploit this vulnerable Buccaneers’ secondary. Meanwhile, Brady should get back one of his career favorites in Rob Gronkowski which would cause issues for the Giants’ defense that has allowed over 385 yards per game and is without their two top safeties.