NFL Week 10 MNF DraftKings Showdown Breakdown

Welcome to Week Ten of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. We believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

We want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

The new look Los Angeles Rams travel north to take on the San Francisco 49ers in a NFC West matchup carrying a game total of 50.5 favoring the Rams by 3.5-points. The Niners are 1-5 in their last six games while the Rams have won four of their last five. This will be the first meeting of the season between the divisional rivals with each team coming off a disappointing loss in Week 9. Los Angeles has lost their last four contests to San Francisco, so despite the differences in overall record do not expect the Rams to overlook the Niners. Both teams experienced offensive turnovers that evidently were too much to handle. San Francisco let three offensive turnovers permit a depleted Arizona Cardinals squad to dominate on their way to a 31-17 victory. Los Angeles met the streaking hot Tennessee Titans in a primetime Sunday Night showdown where Matthew Stafford’s two interceptions on back-to-back plays and five sacks proved to be too much to overcome. San Francisco has struggled at Levi Stadium with losses in their first four home games the season and a 1-8 record dating back to last season. Stafford comes in with only two games of experience against the Niners in his eight year career, but has bested 300 yards passing in each game, holding a 1-1 record overall. Despite his struggles last week, Stafford leads the NFL in passing yards (2,271) through nine games while tacking on 23 touchdown passes, good for second in the league. It appears to be a game of strengths versus strengths as the Rams passing attack ranks third in yardage (296.3) and will face a Niners defense that is allowing the sixth-least opponent passing yards (206.5) per game. 

Team Breakdown

Each team has significant contributors appearing on their injury report with Los Angeles recently losing star wide receiver, Robert Woods, for the remainder of the season to a torn ACL. While they lose one star player, they are expecting the debut of two potentially future Hall of Famers. Von Miller, who was acquired after Week 8 from the Broncos, will add another elite pass rusher to a group that currently leads the NFL in sacks at 28. He will join Leonard Floyd and Aaron Donald to form potentially the most dominant pass rushing unit in the league. The addition of Miller could be the spark this Rams defense needs after allowing 23 points per game over the last three games. Offensively, Los Angeles will look for Odell Beckham Jr. to soften the loss of Woods. However, most of what the latter brought to the team wasn’t seen on the stat sheet and his ability to block inline as a skilled player will certainly not be replaced by OBJ. It will be interesting to observe how Sean McVay structures this Rams offense following the loss of a pivotal piece in the run and the pass game. 

Meanwhile, the struggling Niners have failed to get Kyle Shanahan's renowned run game established ranking in the middle of the league at 113.1 rushing yards per game. Losing former first-round mammoth Mike McGlinchey will only further complicate things for a group that gave up five sacks last week to the Arizona Cardinals and now will face the best pass rushing unit in the NFL. Sixth-round rookie, Elijah Mitchell has surpassed third-rounder Trey Serman as the Niners lead back and has filled in well, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Gameflow forced him to be limited to eight carries last week but an additional five receptions pushed him to 79 total yards from scrimmage. If the Rams hop out to an early lead and Shanahan fades the run game again expect Jimmy Garoppolo to potentially throw 40 passes for the third time this year, after only posting three games over 40 pass attempts in his 48 game career prior to this season. 

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford ($10,800 or $16,200)

San Francisco has been solid against the pass so far this season, allowing only 6.7 yards per pass attempt and not allowing over 260 pass yards since Week 1. The Rams come into Monday Night averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt and at 29.0 points per game rank 4th in the NFL. Stafford carries the second-highest ownership on the slate (65.8%) and is the third most common Captain at 13.2%, trailing only Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel. He's recorded over 20 fantasy points in 7-of-9 games this season and with the Niners permitting the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position this year has a good opportunity to surpass that threshold again. 

Jimmy Garoppolo ($10,000)

The Rams have been much less permissive to production of opposing quarterbacks, forcing more interceptions than touchdowns per game. Ranking tenth at 18.7 points per game and limiting any ground production to the position has been the receipt for success. Garoppolo has thrown for over 322 yards in consecutive games and amassed 53.6 fantasy points in the process. He may need to reproduce these results tonight if the Niners are going to compete with a lethal opposing attack. If the Rams pressure proves to be too much, we could experience a floor game for the San Francisco quarterback but with all his pass catching weapons available for the second week in a row has the potential to continue his hot success. 

Running Backs 

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($9,200)

Entering this showdown with the fourth-highest salary on the board suggests Henderson is seeing a lot of opportunity but that isn’t necessarily true. With 15 or less carries in his last three games and less than a hundred yards from scrimmage in these contests most of his production has come from reaching the end zone. Sony Michel has been a slight bother to his weekly production but overall the Rams have struggled to run the ball at only 4.0 yards per rush attempt. Their near 40:60 run pass ratio could lean even heavier on the pass following the loss of Robert Woods, who was a crucial part of Sean McVay’s run scheme. It will be interesting to see the adjustments made on that end but gives enough reason to consider fading the expensive Rams back in favor of his backfield counterpart or a different pass catcher.

Sony Michel ($5,000)

The past two weeks have allotted more snaps to Michel and has led to an increase in opportunity for the former Georgia Bulldog. He’s produced over 7.6 points in each of the last two games and enters this contest with his third highest salary of the season.​​ The loss of Roberts Woods will drastically affect the rushing attack deployed by the Rams as he ranked seventh in run blocking at his position and was often tasked with pivotal blocks to open up running lanes. While Kupp is an equally impressive blocker it will be the responsibility of Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr. to pick up the slack left behind and could prove to be a devastating blow for the rushing attack overall. 

Elijah Mitchell ($6,400 or $9,600)

At nearly $3,000 less than the opposing starting running back, Mitchell enters Monday NIght having eclipsed 12.9 fantasy points in three consecutive weeks. With 18 carries in two of the last three games he surpassed 100 rushing yards in each of those games. His production last week came via the pass game (5 receptions for 43 yards), where until Week 9 Mitchell had rarely been used. Averaging 78.3 rush yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry displays the efficiency that the rookie running back is capable of. The Niners game plan should focus on keeping the Rams offense off the field and establishing the running game is an effective way to do so. However, given his production last week in the pass game, if this game does start running away from San Francisco, expect Mitchell to still be heavily involved. There’s plenty of reason to fit the Niners starting back into your lineup as a cheap option in the Flex or Captain spot as the Rams have allowed 103.0 rush yards per game (21st) and have allowed 46.1 receiving yards to the running back position this season. 

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($12,000 or $18,000)

Arguable off to one of the greatest seasons a wide receiver has had since Jerry Rice, Kupp has been an absolute beast with 113.2 receiving yards per game and ten touchdowns on the season. He’s Stafford’s undeniable first option and has surpassed 20 fantasy points in 7-of-9 games this season. With a ceiling in the 40s and a floor in the mid-teens, it's irresponsible to keep Kupp out of your lineup. As stated before, the Rams offense will potentially experience some changes as the loss of Robert Woods is significant to both the run and the pass. The acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr. should be beneficial to the pass game and allow Kupp to not garner too much attention from the defense. It will be interesting to see what effect adding a deep threat like Beckham has on Kupp’s production but it feels like the middle of the field will be as open as ever with a speedster like OBJ opposite Kupp.  

Odell Beckham Jr. ($7,400)

This price point seems very reasonable for a player with breakout ability like OBJ. However, this play warrants wariness as he hasn’t produced over 100 yards since October 13, 2019, failed to catch more than five passes since December 15, 2019 and hasn’t seen double digit targets since September 13, 2020. Now the question remains, has his skillset subdued over the years or was this lack of production due to quarterback play. Matthew Stafford has been known for his ability to throw the deep ball so this could be a matchup made in heaven. A new environment was certainly needed but with so much in question for this potential debut, waver on the side of caution if adding the former star to your lineup.

Van Jefferson Jr. ($5,400 or $8,100)

Jefferson is a favorite to inherit Woods’ snaps with the potential to become the number two option in the pass game for an absolutely potent offensive attack. Playing in 78.2% of snaps this season, Jefferson has seen his snap total climb above 84% in three consecutive weeks. After playing 96% of snaps last week, it’s clear that Van Jefferson is a big part of McVay’s plans. He slots in as the best option to fill Woods’ role and feels undervalued at this price point. He has produced over 7.1 fantasy points in three straight games and is averaging nearly seven targets over that span. His value feels to be at its highest this week as OBJ is still catching up with the Rams’ playbook. Comfortably slot in Jefferson at your Flex position with the potential to sneak him in as your Captain if you want to save cap for other big names and gain leverage with only 6.4% siding for Jefferson in that spot.

Deebo Samuel ($9,000)

Based on production, Samuel has been the Kupp of the 49ers’ pass game. Seeing over eight targets in every game this season, Samuel is averaging 110.3 receiving yards per game and boasts the second highest target share (34.5) in the NFL. His yards after catch rank first in the league at 6.0 per reception and he’s produced four games over 25.0 fantasy points so far this year. One should expect Jalen Ramsey to be heavily involved in the Rams plans to slow down the Niners receiver, but with the amount of movement in Shanahan’s offense and Samuel’s 33.3% target share in the red zone (8 targets), opportunity is knocking at the door. His 13.4% Captain projection is third-highest on the showdown.

Brandon Aiyuk ($6,600 or $9,900)

Has the up-and-down start of the season finally subsided for Air Aiyuk, or does tonight’s matchup present another down output for the second-year receiver out of Arizona State. With ten receptions on 15 targets in the past two games, Aiyuk has seen his snap share surpass 90% for consecutive weeks. He’ll draw the lesser of matchups as Darius Williams is a shell of the cover corner than Ramsey is and Jimmy could use this as an opportunity to look for big plays on the outside. Seeing only 19% ownership overall and a projected 2.6% ownership in the Captain slot offers potential leverage if Aiyuk finds a way to repeat his production from the past two weeks. 

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee ($6,200)

It’s safe to say that Higbee’s breakout ceiling game has yet to happen. Despite holding  the second-highest snap share (89.9%) at the tight end position and seeing the most red zone targets (14) and fourth-most routes run (28.4 p/g), Higbee has failed to produce double digit fantasy points in 6-of-0 games thus far this season. He has recorded over 50 receiving yards just twice and is coming off his first game in which he saw double digit targets. San Francisco presents a tough matchup for the tight ends but have had their struggles against the position in the red zone. It would make sense following the loss of Woods, that Higbee would see an increase in his target share that sits at only 14.3%. Fitting Higbee and Jefferson Jr. into your lineups, stacked with Stafford looks to be a solid leverage play as each pass catcher should play a pivotal role in making up for the loss of Robert Woods. 

George Kittle ($7,800 or $11,700)

Injury has reduced Kittle’s production this season but coming off his first start in four weeks allowed the Niners star tight end his first 100 yard performance of the season. Seeing 36 targets through five games while leading the NFL in snap share (92.1) presents plenty of opportunity. The Rams are allowing ten yards per reception on 6.8 receptions to tight ends this season and rank 25th in points allowed to the position this season. His 37.2% ownership and 6.3% Captain play feels far too low for a player of his caliber in a solid matchup. Lock him into your lineup and consider making him your Captain. 

Defenses

Los Angeles Rams ($4,600)

Since Kyle Shanahan took over for the 49ers in 2017, these teams have faced each other eight times. The Niners are averaging 27 points per game over this span and are 5-3 overall. This year, San Francisco enters averaging 23.1 points per game while allowing 16 sacks and at 1.8 giveaways per game are fifth-worst in the NFL. The Rams enter Week 10 leading the league in sacks and force the eighth-most takeaways at 1.6 per game. If Von Miller makes his debut, the front seven could prove to be too much for the banged up offensive line that allowed five sacks last week.  

San Francisco 49ers ($2,400)

Since Sean McVay took over for the Rams in 2017, these teams have dueled it out eight times with the Rams winning three. Over this span, the Rams have scored 26.9 points per game and scored over 31 in four appearances. As stated multiple times, the loss of Robert Woods is devastating but there are talented players capable of reducing the impact. It will be curious how McVay adjusts but expect the Niners to focus on stopping the run and forcing the Rams to become one dimensional. If they can do this, Stafford has been known to turn the ball over and it could become a gritty divisional game where points are hard to come by. 

The Bottom Line

These two teams have a great recent history as they were both taken over by high touted coaches in 2017 and have given us four of eight games that were decided by a touchdown or less. These teams know each other well and stand to gain a lot if they leave tonight victorious. The weather figures to have no impact with a forecast of 61° with winds at 4mph. Each team boasts a wide receiver having a breakout season and a defensive front seven that is disruptive against the pass. The Niners have struggled to stop the run this season but have been rather stout against the pass. If they're capable of containing the Rams rushing attack, expect the pressure to create problems for Stafford and the Rams pass game. Jimmy Garoppolo’s role is crucial to keep the run stuffing Rams defense out of the box by completing passes downfield and on the outside. If the Niners can stay balanced in their attack, they have the pieces to exploit weaknesses of Los Angeles’ secondary.