DK Showdown: Bucs vs Bears TNF

Right now our team trends tool is patron only while we continue to add more features to it (part of that early access) but I'll use that some in this post about the Thursday Night Football game for the DraftKings showdown slate between the Bucs and Bears. Let's jump in!

Notable Injuries

Bucs

This entire Bucs team is banged up so will have to keep an eye on further injury updates for those available. Mike Evans didn't practice all week and Scotty Miller got in a limited practice Wednesday. 

Gronk was on the list Tuesday as questionable but didn't carry an injury designation after a full participant in practice today after two limited practices the two days prior. The Gronk news was huge because if for some reason he wasn't able to make it, would have had to look at Brate as a great play at 3.8k. With Howard out, Brate will likely see some increased opportunity as the Bucs have lined up with two TEs 38% of their plays but primarily ran the ball with the two TE set 60%+.

The offense has been pretty well spread out but with the absence of Chris Godwin, OJ Howard and Justin Watson there's about 35 to 40% of the targets to go around. Will likely see that spread around through Evans, Miller, Jones and Gronk mainly.

Gronk is one of the cheaper options (5.8k) that sees regular attention in the passing game. You can probably expect Brady to look to Gronk in the RZ in addition to Mike Evans. 

Scotty Miller has an aDOT of 16.6 so he's the guy who is getting more opportunity in the air and will probably see an increased role this week. If you're looking for a low owned captain spot, he has the upside and opportunity.

With Godwin and Watson out, it leaves a couple $200 WRs that will see an increase in snaps tonight. We don't have a lot of data to go on but Tyler Johnson has seen 20+ snaps the past two games and is the most likely candidate to see more increased opportunity with Watson and Godwin out.

Bucs Player Priority

Outside of Brady 11.2k, here's how I'm prioritizing who I pair with him.

1. Jones 7.4k - Jones caught 6 balls on 9 targets last week even with Barner and Vaughn getting some run. Decent floor in the passing attack with a depleted receiving core for Brady.  Not to mention he got the majority of carries on the ground for RB last week (74% overall, 83% of RB carries)
2. Miller 7k - 5 to 6 yards deeper per target than most options on the team makes Miller an attractive person to plug in.
3. Evans 9.4k - will likely be the chalkiest of the options on TB and rightfully so. He's a beast regardless of who is off the field and with no Godwin he's the best receiver on the field.
4. Gronkowski 5.8K - no OJ Howard, already had a decent target % and should see an increased role and dangerous red zone target. 
5. Johnson 0.2k - he's $200 on tonight's slate and is the WR3 on the team. If you need some salary savings, he looks like he'll be a good place to look for that. 
6. Bucs Def 5.4k - I hate playing defenses in showdown because I don't think they tend to lead to optimal teams and are usually over owned because of their price but it's hard to ignore the possibility that this game isn't exciting.
7. Brate 3.8k - I don't think Brate is going to come in and take over in a passing role. He did score a TD on 1 of 2 targets last week. There's a chance that he comes in and targets get spread around with him in the mix. If you think that's going to happen then you likely move Gronk down the board a bit as Brate will likely steal away opportunity from him if that's how you think it goes down.

Bears

Insert joke about bench Foles > starting Foles.

Darnell Mooney is listed as Questionable and while we normally wouldn't highlight that, it's warranted to note due to his target % he's been seeing on the field. He's been a full participant all week and would probably be tagged as probable if that were still a designation.

Something worth noting is that with the absence of Tarik Cohen, even though it is limited to just one game, we saw an increase in David Montgomery targets. The Bears got Patterson involved a little in the run game last week but Montgomery is definitely the primary back for this offense and should see production as such. I like Jones from the Bucs a bit more here in terms of usage and opportunity in an offense but the upside potential could be there if they continue to get him more involved in the passing game.

No surprise here but this offense is running through Allen Robinson right now. He's getting the bulk of targets, air yards and some. Jimmy Graham has been a big part of the offense as well and looks to be a go to option in the RZ.

Bears Player Priority

Outside of Foles 10k, here's how I'm prioritizing who I pair with him.

1. Allen Robinson 10.6k - He's getting a bulk of the opportunity in the air and even though he's matched up against a pretty good CB in Carlton Davis and might see some shadow coverage, he will have plenty of chances to catch the ball tonight.
2. Jimmy Graham 6.8k - Go to option in the RZ and easier to see him being a bigger part of the Bears attack for a veteran QB.
3. Darnell Mooney 4.6k - I give a slight lean to Mooney just based on opportunity increasing over time for him and he seemed to catch Foles eye last week for targets. Him and Miller will probably be similar ownership so I would go after the savings here.
4. David Montgomery 7.8k - I don't hate Montgomery here, it's just that at 7.8k I'm not sure how much I want him as he's going to be owned by a big chunk of the field and seems like a good spot to get away.
5. Anthony Miller 6.4k - has the Anthony Miller experiment failed yet? Viable given the options on this Bears team but at this price point it's hard to not give the edge to Graham and Mooney.
6. Cordarrelle Patterson 2.2k - his role didn't change much last week but he has explosive play potential and on a team that will need some of that tonight. 

Slate Summary

I typically won't prioritize kickers and defenses as I don't believe they tend to lead to optimal teams. I usually play just one or two showdown teams and because of that, I focus on the skill positions within the team. If you're going to MME, by all means have at it with the exposure to kickers and defenses but they are typically owned at a higher ownership than they lead to an optimal team so it makes it an easier fade for me with just a couple lineups. While this game doesn't look like a gunslinger the Bucs defense is 5.4k and you're not getting too much savings on that so unless they get a few turnovers or get a defensive TD, I think I can find more fantasy production elsewhere.

As the day goes on I may get a little more guts and move Johnson up in my Bucs player priority because it allows me to get some of the higher priced guys when building out a team. 

At this moment for me, Ronald Jones is going to be my captain just due to price and opportunity. I think he has a good shot at being the highest scoring player on the slate and he's only 7.4k (11.1k in CPT).