NFL Week 15 MNF DraftKings Showdown Breakdown

Welcome to Week Fifteen of the Add More Funds DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Breakdown. This will be a weekly column going forward and we are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we believe Daily Fantasy Sports are something everyone can enjoy. For many of you, DFS is mainly for entertainment purposes. For others, we know you are looking to get some serious skin in the game whether it be high-end cash games or taking down a GPP tournament.

At AMF we want to help both the experienced player and beginners alike. To do this, every Monday we will release a breakdown of the Monday Night game as well as our favorite Showdown plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly projected to be under-owned. Some plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Game Breakdown

The Minnesota Vikings head to Chicago to face the Bears in an NFC North clash with each team still having a chance to make the playoffs. The Bears would need a lot to go their way, sitting at 4-9 on the season, while the Vikings are just a game outside the last spot in the NFC Wild Card race. Minnesota boasts one of the top offensive attacks in football but their defense has struggled to hold onto any leads this year. Chicago gave Green Bay a heck of a ride last Sunday Night but fell short of victory and have now lost two straight while going 1-7 over their last eight games. At this point of the season, injuries have impacted a majority of rosters across the NFL, and with the recent increase of COVID cases around professional sports both Minnesota and Chicago expect to be without key starters tonight. The game total has moved to 45.0 after opening at 44.0 and favors Minnesota by 6.5-points after opening at 3.5. This series is led by the Vikings 61-57-2 but the Bears have dominated lately, winning five of the last six meetings. 

Team Breakdown

The Vikings have struggled mightily to close out games this season, most evident in their 36-28 defeat of the Steelers last week. Minnesota led 29-0 late in the third quarter but watched their defense crumble as they have all season. No team in the NFL allows more points in the fourth quarter or the last two minutes of a game than this Viking’s squad and it’s resulted in a disappointing 6-7 record. Defensively they rank poorly in points allowed (25.6), rushing yards (129.5), passing yards (251.9), and total yards (403.7). Allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt ranks 31st and at 7.1 yards per pass, attempt ranks 25th in that department. Despite their struggles defensively they lead the league in sacks (41) and trail only Chicago in overall sack percentage at 8.2%. The Bears are potentially without both their starting tackles creating a difficult situation for an offensive line that already allows 3.2 sacks per game, second-worst in the NFL. Minnesota will potentially go through tonight’s game without a few offensive contributors as Adam Thielen (ankle), Dede Westbrook (COVID) and Alexander Mattison (COVID) are all questionable ahead of game time. As an offensive unit, Minnesota has thrived this season. They rank 9th in points per game (26.5) and continue to have success moving the ball (400.4 yards per game) through the air (267.4) and on the ground (123.2).  

Chicago has been a tough out lately despite losing seven of their last eight games. They enter tonight’s matchup with a laundry list of inactives and will hope Justin Fields’ improvement continues regardless of the difficult situation. The defensive unit is depleted from COVID protocol and injuries, projecting to be without at least five starters. Jaylon Johnson is one of the most important inactives in tonight’s game. His emergence in the secondary has the Bears in the top-10 of passing yards allowed (216.5) but without Artie Burns and Johnson tonight this depleted unit could struggle against the seventh-best passing attack in the NFL. Chicago has led the league in sack percentage (8.4%) with Robert Quinn doing most of the damage. His 14 sacks this season rank fourth in the league yet Chicago finds five players with a sack this year on the injury report ahead of game time. The Bears have allowed an average of 22.8 points per game at Soldier Field. Minnesota is allowing 29.4 points per game on the road and faces an improving offensive unit. Chicago has scored 21.6 points per game over the last five games, a significant improvement over their season average of 17.8. Surprisingly, the Bears have abandoned their run-first approach lately. Averaging 37.7 pass attempts per game over the last three games, Chicago carries a 40:60 run-pass ratio over that span. 

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins ($11,000 or $16,500)

There will be little in the way of Cousins having a big night as Chicago enters today with a decimated secondary and could be without seven players in that unit. Justin Jefferson is a matchup nightmare and should expose a group of practice squad members with heavy opportunity. Thielen’s status is still in question but the development of K.J. Osborn added another legitimate pass-catcher to Cousins’ arsenal. Averaging 36.7 pass attempts per game this season, expect the Vikings to attack a Bears defense that has allowed the second-highest yards per pass attempts (7.8) over the last three games.    

Justin Fields ($10,400 or $15,600)

One game back from a rib injury, Fields put the pressure on the Green Back at Lambeau Field last Sunday night. His 224 passing yards and two long passing touchdowns were accompanied by a team-leading 74 rushing yards. Fields have produced over 19 fantasy points in four of his last five games and is presented with a golden opportunity to do so again tonight. Minnesota allows the second-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks per game (21.4) and has allowed an average of 304.8 passing yards over the last four games. Quarterbacks have thrown 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions over that span while being sacked 12 times. Protecting Fields will be crucial for the Bears’ success overall but given the game script should allow the rookie from Ohio State ample opportunity for fantasy production. 

Running Backs 

Dalvin Cook ($11,800 or $17,700)

Coming off his biggest game of the season with 222 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns, Cook will see zero competition for carries tonight as backup Alexander Mattison is inactive. It is truly remarkable what the fifth-year back out of Florida State accomplished following a dislocated shoulder just one week prior. With five straight games of 15 or more fantasy points, Cook is averaging 19.1 DraftKings points since Week 9. Monitoring the status of Akiem Hicks will determine whether he lands in the Captain or Flex spot of the lineup but he will be a lock regardless. 

David Montgomery ($9,000)

Minnesota has improved against the run as they continue to get healthier along their front seven. Montgomery has handled three-down work when healthy and should expect to be a major factor in the Bears' attack tonight. Keeping Minnesota’s offense off the field would be advantageous given Chicago’s current situation defensively with injury and COVID protocol. Regardless of their ability to run the ball against this improving Vikings front, Montgomery finds plenty of work in the passing game averaging five targets per game since returning from injury Week 11 and 16 targets over the last two games. He has produced 90.8 all-purpose yards per game since his return and figures to lead the Bears in yardage production for the third consecutive week. Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert have rotated in a change-of-pace role but don’t carry any value ahead of tonight’s showdown.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($11,200 or $16,800)

The ceiling for Justin Jefferson will be blown off if Adam Thielen remains inactive. This decimated secondary stands little chance against one of the most dynamic receivers in today’s game. Averaging 21.4 DraftKings points per game on the season, Jefferson has been on a tear over the last five games upping that average to 27.7. His 30 deep targets lead the NFL and allow him to lead nearly all air yard categories: air yards (1590 - 1st), air yards share (44.1% - 1st), air yards completed (909 - 1st), and unrealized air yards (681 - 5th). Kirk Cousins has been locked into Jefferson over this span targeting him 59 times. Consider locking Jefferson into your Captain slot if Akiem Hicks is active which would restrict some of Cook’s production and appeal in that spot.

K.J. Osborn ($5,800 or $8,700)

The second-year product out of Miami (FL) has continued his breakout season with touchdowns in back-to-back games. With five double-digit performances this season, Osborn has displayed the ability to have a big day. He’s seen 16 targets over the past two games and will fall into a big target share again if Thielen is inactive. Chicago is allowing 38.2 DraftKings points per game to the wide receiver position this season and will be far from full strength tonight. Projecting as a Captain in only 1.8% of lineups, Osborn offers some major leverage on the field if he enters tonight as the Vikings WR2. 

Adam Thielen ($8,400)

High-ankle sprains generally carry a multi-week absence but Thielen is as tough of a football player as we have in this league. Regardless, if he is deemed active tonight there is legitimate concern over his snap count and potential to bring out his typical game-breaking ability. Seeing nearly a 35% ownership overall, it appears many aren’t concerned about his status or likelihood to return at high-level performance. Thielen has ten touchdowns on the season and would face a defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns (17) to the wide receiver position. His status will heavily impact the outcome of today’s showdown and should be monitored closely up to game time. 

Darnell Mooney ($7,400 or $11,100)

With Allen Robinson already declared out, Mooney enters Monday Night as the Bears' undeniable number one pass-catching option. His production has been hot and cold over the past four weeks with two games of under 30 receiving yards and two games of over 120. He has seen 36 targets over those four weeks and will face a Vikings pass defense that has allowed more fantasy points to the wide receiver position (586) than any team this season. Mooney has seen gadget players Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant Sr. steal his spotlight in consecutive weeks but should return to his dominant form from Weeks 11-12 tonight. Given his lower cost and Captain ownership under 7% deserves some consideration given the predicted game flow and appealing matchup. 

Jakeem Grant Sr. ($5,000)

Despite lower volume, Grant Sr. has scored touchdowns in consecutive games and appears to have carved out a role in Matt Nagy’s offense. His game-breaking speed and difficult to tackle ability create a matchup nightmare for a Vikings defense that can’t get off the field. The special-team specialist has built up a consistent snap share over the last three weeks and could benefit from tonight’s matchup. He’s seen 14 targets over that span and produced 133 receiving yards in the process. Averaging 17.7 points per game over the last two weeks he allows higher-priced options to fit in your lineup and solid leverage given his projected ownership of 16%. There’s an argument to put him as your Flex and if you’re feeling risky could leverage your lineup in the Captain spot with under 2% ownership. 

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin ($5,400)

Conklin has seen up-and-down usage over the last five weeks seeing a total of 22 targets over that span. He’s become a boom-bust option after seeing three or fewer targets in three of the last four games. The Bears are allowing the seventh-least DraftKings points to tight ends (9.6) this season and have permitted only 489 receiving yards this year to the position. Carrying a 21.4% ownership feels slightly high given the matchup and inconsistent production as of late. Avoiding tight ends in a game where wide receivers should thrive seems like the best play.

Cole Kmet ($4,800)

The Vikings present an equally difficult matchup for tight ends, containing the position to an average of 9.9 DraftKings points per game. Kmet has seen his targets decrease over three consecutive games but has seen 23 targets over that span. Turning that target share into 14 receptions for 123 scoreless yards presents the limited ceiling he holds. With only two double-digit performances this season Kmet remains a boom-bust option worth keeping out of your lineup. 

Defenses

Minnesota Vikings ($4,400)

The status of the Bears' starting tackles is worth following up to game time as the Vikings lead the NFL with 41 sacks on the season. The Bears present a vulnerable offense that has allowed 3.2 sacks per game, second-worst in the league. This defensive unit carries projected ownership of 27.5% and Captain ownership in the top-10 at 5.6%. They allow a bunch of yards and points but have generated 16 takeaways and three defensive touchdowns while averaging 6.8 fantasy points per game.  

Chicago Bears ($3,600)

Injuries have demolished a once destructive defensive group. With starters Khalil Mack (foot), Danny Trevathan (knee), Cassius Marsh (knee), and DeAndre Houston-Carson (forearm) already ruled out, the Bears also don’t know the status of Mario Edwards, Artie Burns, Roquan Smith, Jaylon Johnson, Tashaun Gipson and Akiem Hicks due to COVID protocol or injury. It’s certainly not the unit or matchup to project a good fantasy outing for the Bears and one I recommend avoiding.

The Bottom Line

There are two crucial statuses to follow up to game time that will have an unquestionable effect on the flow of this game. Adam Thielen and Akiem Hicks are highly impactful players who both determine how the Vikings' offense will operate. The weather appears to be friendly and both defenses look ready to allow plenty of production. The game total continues to climb as more Chicago defenders are added to the COVID list. Expect multiple big plays on both sides of the ball as the defenses have been among the worst in the league over the past three weeks. Chicago has a chance to keep the game within their grasp if they can establish the run and keep the Vikings' potent attack off the field. If Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook are able to keep the Vikings' offense balanced, the Bears will have to put up points for more than one half as they did last week against Green Bay.