NFL Week 15 DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome to week fifteen of the Add More Funds DraftKings Main Slate Rundown. Remember, this is a weekly column. We are very excited to bring you high-level content using tools from our website. At AMF, we want to help both the experienced-player and beginners alike. To do this, every week we will release our favorite weekend classic slate plays. We will go position by position highlighting different price points. We will try to find the plays that provide value, whether they are underpriced or possibly, projected to be under-owned. Plays will be denoted as cash game or tournament specific. 

Here is our week fifteen NFL DraftKings main slate rundown.

Quarterback: 

Josh Allen ($8100) Play in all formats

Back-to-back weeks in this write-up spot for Allen after a 42+ point outburst against the Bucs defense. This week he draws a Carolina team that while aggressive is no more talented than the Bucs team he lit up last week. Allen and his Bills team have also fallen to 7-6, and while that may not seem important for DFS what it tells me is they cannot mess around in this game and “save stuff.” More specifically, Allen will need to continue to be a huge part of the running game including near the end zone. At $8,100 he’s certainly expensive, but I think you could make a case he’s still underpriced. And his floor/ceiling combo plays great in both cash and tournaments this week. 

Tua Tagovailoa ($5,700) Cash-game play

He’ll be missing his favorite target, Jaylen Waddle, for this game which does hurt, but you know what is a good remedy for that? The Jets. The Jets rank last in yards per pass attempt, in completion percentage, passer rating, and overall yards per play. They are simply terrible and there’s nothing about a road week fifteen game against a Dolphins team playing much better, that I think will change that. The cherry on top is the Dolphin's backfield woes. As of this writing, Myles Gaskin will play, but they are banged up at the RB spot. I think that forces a few extra throws for a team that already likes to chuck the ball around.  

Trevor Lawrence ($5,100) Tournament Play

Lawrence has not been good this year. The Jaguars have been even worse. But I think this is a good get-right spot for them both. With Urban Meyer gone, and a home game against maybe the only other NFL team worse than them, this is the perfect spot for a breakout. Lawrence is also crazy cheap for a home QB favored by almost a touchdown, Throw him in a few tournament lineups stacked with your favorite target of his and run it back with Brandin Cooks ($5,800) for a high upside and high leverage stack at a crazy low cost. 

Other QB thoughts:

This week it’s a mess everywhere QB included. With games being postponed, QBs being hurt, or having Covid the position is a wasteland. There also is no middle class between the 7.5k+ guys and the sub 6k guys when that is usually stacked with great options. This week I would pay up for whoever you trust most in cash and take a few extra chances in tournaments that you normally may not do. 

Running Back: 

Najee Harris ($7,800) Play in all formats

There are a lot of stats to tell you why Harris and more specifically his O-line have underperformed so far this season. But for DFS reasons none of those apply and yet still people are tentative to play him. According to AMF Rushing tools, he leads RBs in snaps by over 100 compared to the second-place guy, is third in rush attempts, and third in receptions. That to me screams that he has a solid floor and the upside to access a high ceiling. With nine touchdowns so far this year we aren’t expecting positive regression necessarily, but any game now he could have his four-touchdown game similar to Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor, or Austin Ekeler. 

James Robinson ($5,400) Prefer in cash

Likely the most popular play at his position and possibly the entire slate this week. This is due to his low price ($5,400), his opportunity (Carlos Hyde and Urban Meyer are gone), and likely game flow (the Jaguars are home favorites against a brutal Texans team). I won’t dig in much further but in cash whoever does not have Robinson is doing it wrong. In tournaments of course you can fade the chalk but I may look to deploy him still in my non-Lawrence lineups. 

Myles Gaskin/Michael Carter ($5600/4,700) Prefer in tournaments still strong in cash

I am grouping these two not only because they play each other but because they are both cheap, have clear strangleholds of their backfield when healthy, and are coming in with injury concerns. Carter should be activated from the IR and “will have a significant role” according to his coach. Gaskin is the only healthy back on their roster currently that is not a passing game back. I think riding these two in any format is fine this week for those looking to save at running back. 

Other RB thoughts:

Similar to quarterback, the middle tier of running back is a mess. David Johnson ($4,900) and D’onta Foreman ($5,200) project favorably but are not exactly exciting plays on talent. I am avoiding Aaron Jones ($6,600 as I think his role has changed since returning from injury and also Cordarrelle Patterson as he simply isn’t running routes at the same rate he was earlier in the season. 

Wide Receivers: 

Stefon Diggs ($7,700) Prefer in tournaments still strong in cash

Back to the well on Diggs albeit we had less success here last week compared to his quarterback Josh Allen. The matchup is actually below average but with Diggs still top ten in air yards, targets, receptions, and end zone targets, he is a strong play. Priced below Deebo Samuel (who’s had seven targets his last three games) and a full $1,200 below Davante Adams, he’s my favorite expensive WR play. Emmanuel Sanders being out doesn’t help Diggs nearly as much as it helps Gabriel Davis ($3,700) but I do think it is a slight bump. 

Diontae Johnson ($7,500) Play in all formats

AMF shows that Johnson has received a whopping 30% of his team's targets this season. That is good for third for wide receivers behind only Kupp (not on the slate) and Adams. Due to the Steelers pass game inefficiencies that have only resulted in the tenth most receptions this season. He also has only scored six touchdowns this season. Any uptick in efficiency from the passing game, and he’s a potential Yahtzee play. For a bonus, he draws a Titans team that has been below average defensively all season but is allowing the 31st most DK points to opposing WRs. The kicker is he’s scored double-digit points every game, this ceiling flashing a crazy high floor even when things don’t work out. 

Devante Parker ($4,300) Prefer in cash 

If James Robinson isn’t the most owned player on the slate my next guess is Parker. With Waddle out and the whole host of numbers, I gave for Tua applying to Parker he is projecting very strong. In the six games he’s played he’s never had fewer than four catches or forty-two yards. That leaves a theoretical basement of 8.2 DK points. He’s also averaged a healthy eight targets per game and has only scored one touchdown showing he’s likely due for positive regression. I will be hammering Parker in cash this week and mixing him in my tournament lineups. 

Other WR thoughts: 

The Bill's secondary options Davis and Beasley should get a bump with no Sanders. All of the Cardinals receivers also receive a bump with no Hopkins. Even though I wrote up Diggs I still love Adams even at $8,900 this week as you can find the savings and that Ravens secondary with no Humphrey is a mess. 

Tight Ends:

Quick statement on the position this week. The tight end position is abysmal on the main slate this week. I once again recommend pairing your tourney quarterback with a tight end and just hoping for a touchdown.

George Kittle ($7,500) Prefer in tournaments

Two weeks in a row he has pretty much been a requirement to win a tournament. With the offense going away from Deebo in the passing game (and towards Deebo in the run game) and Aiyuk still never fully breaking out, Kittle has thrived. Elijah Mitchell is still injured which has resulted in an increase in the passing game boosting Kittle. This week they draw the Falcons in a somewhat must-win for both teams. I expect the 49ers to win and do it through Kittle. 

Mike Gesicki ($5,000) Cash-game play 

Our old friend Mike is back. Similar to Parker he draws a huge boost with Jaylen Waddle out. Even with Waddle soaking up targets like crazy Gesicki is still fourth in the league in receptions, and fifth in the league in air yards from the tight end position. Against the Jet's defense, I think we can expect a big week from the Dolphin's tight end. 

Other TE thoughts:

Your punt option is again O'Shaughnessy ($3,200) although Evan Engram ($3,100) isn’t bad either. I think I will likely spend up to either Kittle or Gesicki this week but another name to keep an eye on is Dalton Schultz ($4,900). In tournaments, I think he will be essentially unowned and works great with a Dak stack.  

Defense: 

Bills ($3,100)

How are they this cheap against a sputtering turnover-prone Panthers offense? I will gladly roster a defense against a bad warm weather team traveling to Buffalo in December at any time. 

Jaguars ($2,800)

Home against Davis Mills and the Texans. This is a play against a lack of talent, not necessarily a play on the Jaguar's defense.