MLB DFS GPP Strategy: 6 Key Components

I want to preface this by stating this is specific to large-field MLB GPPs and how I think they should be played. I personally believe this is the proper way to make consistent +EV lineups.

Step 1: Be familiar with and get used to losing

MLB is the most variant of the three major sports. The best hitters in baseball get a hit in one-third of their at-bats. This variance is a feature, not a bug for how MLB GPPs should be properly played. With this strategy, you are going to lose 80-90%+ of the slates you play in order to have 500x upside on winning slates. If you are not okay with this, you should not play how I am going to outline.

Step 2: Identify hitter chalk and ALWAYS fade

As described in step 1, MLB is a highly variant sport...but the field does not play it like it is. Ownership of elite hitters in good matchups often exceeds their likelihood of reaching GPP winning upside. These are the type of hitters we want to fade in the hopes 40%+ has a lineup detrimental score in their lineups. We want to win the slates where the winning scores are low. 

If these hitters break the slate, refer to step 1.

I would highly recommend purchasing a subscription to one of the many sites with ownership projections like our friends at Awesemo or Daily Roto.

Step 3: Do not be afraid to play bad players

Many people come from season long and fear using players who they know are bad players because a blowup can be a multi-week set back. We are playing a daily game and get a reset the next day. Bad hitters and pitchers have good games daily. If the bad player fits your build and gets you everything you want, use them. I often use bad pitchers.

Step 4: Always play a 5 hitter stack

So, after the hitter chalk has been identified, I believe the 5 hitter stack is where you should start with your lineup. Since a large portion of your upside comes from your hitters, building your main stack is the most important part of your lineup. If your 5 hitter stack fails, you are only hoping to min cash. 

Do not worry about lineup slot when building your stack. Someone hitting leadoff does not make them a better play than someone hitting 8th. Oftentimes, it leads to increased ownership for the leadoff hitter.

One underrated aspect in picking a stack is the opposing team’s bullpen and who is available that day. Always monitor team’s bullpens here. A tired pen with only the bad relievers can be a way to find an advantage on the slate.

Step 5: Determine priorities outside of the 5 hitter stack

This is a slate-by-slate decision you need to make. Once you have your stack, you need to determine if you are going to prioritize a 3 hitter stack (I would recommend it), a certain SP, a pair of pitchers, etc. 

Fill in around these priorities, you often will not like every player in your lineup but the goal is to build a +EV lineup, not use +EV plays.

Step 6: Strikeouts are king

When choosing pitchers, ignore their floor and choose only based on strikeout upside. In order to win GPPs, you need ceiling outcomes and those come through strikeouts. 

Ignore pitching wins, two strikeouts are worth more than a win. We want to play SP with strikeout upside like Robbie Ray, Vince Velazquez, etc. who do not project well median wise but have the upside to match pitchers in higher price tiers.

The majority of my time spent researching a slate is identifying cheap SP with strikeout upside. If a pitcher like Zach Davies breaks the slate, I will lose.

In the end, this is the way to consistently make +EV lineups without even discussing how to determine players to play.